Archive for March, 2015

Condos, New Housing Forms, Langley the Only Options for Future Buyers: Vancity #LesTwarog

Wednesday, March 25th, 2015

Average Vancouver home will cost $2.1 million by 2030, according to new Vancity report – so Millennials will have to adapt

Joannah Connolly
Other

Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership Realities for Millennials and Beyond says that owning a property in the city will cost 108 per cent of the average household’s monthly income in 2030, up from the current 48 per cent. That compares with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) guidelines that say housing costs should not be more than 32 per cent of gross monthly income.

However the report adds that homeownership is still within reach of most, if buyers adjust their expectations of owning a detached home and turn to condos instead.

It points out that since 2005, Vancouver condo prices have only increased 43 per cent, while the average property value has increased by more than 126 per cent.

“While the affordability of detached homes is moving further and further out of the reach of the average household, condominiums will become a more common and desirable way to achieve the dream of property ownership,” says the report.

The report also observes that such starter homes will increasingly become “forever” homes, with condo buyers unable to move up to single-family properties as the price gap widens.

For those buyers looking for more space, they had better get in on the action quickly, with currently affordable markets Maple Ridge, New Westminster, Pitt Meadows and Port Coquitlam projected to see a ripple effect and become increasingly less affordable. Only Langley is forecast to still be affordable in 2030, with average property values projected to remain stable at $525,000.

Vancity calls on municipal, provincial and federal government to implement affordable housing plans, change zoning to allow for increased density and improve urban and suburban transit systems.

The report also gives recommendations to prospective homebuyers, suggesting that they should adapt to the new normal, consider smaller homes and embrace new forms of multi-family living and owning arrangements, such as housing co-operatives, co-housing, co-ownership and intergenerational community living.

© 2015 Real Estate Weekly

Investors counter ‘housing crash’ forecast

Tuesday, March 24th, 2015

Jennifer Paterson
Other

A new book predicting Canada’s biggest housing market crash has investors responding – blow by blow – with their own reasons why the market is safe from a U.S.-style correction.

“Fact is that banks are still lending their money at 80 per cent loan-to-value,” said investor Todor Yordanov. “Fact is that builders are still undertaking big and bigger projects.

“And fact is that even with seemingly unreachable real estate prices, most buyers are still finding ways to get into the market.”

The book, ‘When the Bubble Bursts,’ written by financial analyst and author Hilliard Macbeth, warns Canadian homebuyers about Canada’s “inevitable” housing crash and says the market is 50 per cent overvalued.

“A 40 to 50 per cent drop in prices, while possible in theory, is not likely,” said Yordanov. “A 50 per cent drop in home prices will devastate the entire economy for a very long time and it will bankrupt nearly every Canadian.”

Jamie Johnston, broker of record at Re/Max Condos Plus, said that since MacBeth lives in Edmonton it isn’t likely he has a view of other markets in Canada. “People who live in and understand the Toronto market have a different view,” he said.

“Those who just look at cranes or track stats over a 40-year period without taking into account current market conditions can always justify their numbers. The reality is that most critics of the market are academics who rely on Stats Can, which is not reliable.”

And savvy investors who have weathered these types of overvaluation predictions before believe their experience in real estate investing has put them in good stead.

A comment on the CREW website said: “I’ll take my chances using proper due diligence, a long-term investment strategy, and hard work over someone yelling from the bench that things are about to come off the rails.”

Copyright © 2015 Key Media Pty Ltd

Infographic: TD Survey Reveals Home Buyer Attitudes on Urban Vs. Suburban #LesTwarog

Tuesday, March 24th, 2015

Joannah Connolly
Other

The finding that Canadians prefer to live in urban areas whereas older people prefer the suburbs is no revelation. But an interesting result of a new TD Bank survey is that all age groups agree that the suburbs are a better place to raise a family.

The survey of 6,149 Canadians aged 18 years and older, with a focus on a subgroup of 4,455 parents and prospective parents, found Canadians of combined age groups evenly split on where they prefer to live. One third of respondents said they prefer to live in the “urbs”, 31 per cent chose the “burbs” and 32 per cent prefer small town or rural Canada.

When split by age, millennials were the most likely to want to live in a major city (38 per cent), followed closely by Gen X (36 per cent), compared with only 28 per cent of baby-boomers (50- to 70-year-olds) and 29 per cent of the “silent generation” (aged around 70 or older).

However, all age groups largely agreed that the suburbs were a more suitable place to raise a family, as the infographic below shows.

“These survey results show the importance of ‘homefitting’ – finding a home that is the right fit for you at each stage of your life,” said Kate Taylor, senior manager, Real Estate Secured Lending at TD.

“For example, many younger people clearly see the appeal of urban living, but that can come at a price, which makes it even more important to start saving for the home of your dreams as early as possible.”

©Real Estate Weekly

Fire hall and housing project goes to open house

Tuesday, March 24th, 2015

Naoibh O

CIBC says Canada’s economy probably shrank in January

Monday, March 23rd, 2015

Jamie Henry
Other

Retail figures declined in January, according to data released by StatsCan on Friday and CIBC economists believe that the unexpected drop in consumer spending is a sign that the economy shrank. Andrew Grantham wrote in a client note: “The latest figures suggest that households are becoming more cautious in their spending habits”.  Although it was expected that spending on gasoline would be lower due to prices, the retail data showed a decline in 11 sectors, which had not been expected by analysts. Many economists are cautious about growth predictions for this year due to the continued slump in oil prices although a weaker loonie is helping exporters. There is also no consensus on whether GDP declined in January; Capital Economics, for example, said there was a one per cent gain.

… Full Story Below …

The Huffington Post Canada By Daniel Tencer

 

Canada’s economy likely shrank in January, CIBC said Friday following an unexpectedly negative reading on retail sales from Statistics Canada.

Retail sales fell 1.7 per cent in January, StatsCan reported, the second consecutive monthly decline. Analysts had been expecting a slowdown due to lower gas prices, but they weren’t expecting the broad-based declines that were actually seen: Seven of 11 retail sectors shrank in January, including autos, furniture and food and beverages.

Canada’s GDP for January “now looks set for a modest drop,” CIBC economist Andrew Grantham wrote in a client note.

Economists had been expecting that lower gas prices would mean Canadians would spend more on other things, but that doesn’t seem to be happening.

“The latest figures suggest that households are becoming more cautious in their spending habits,” Grantham wrote, adding he doesn’t think Canada will meet the modest 1.5-per-cent growth rate that the Bank of Canada is predicting for the first quarter of the year.

Consumers are showing signs of exhaustion, with household debt levels reaching yet another record high in the last months of 2014, up to 163.3 per cent of disposable income.

It’s not just retail numbers that have economists gloomier this week about Canada’s prospects. Manufacturing — which was supposed to see a resurgence thanks to the low loonie and growing U.S. economy — saw sales shrink 1.7 per cent in January, StatsCan reported. That was the third decline in four months.

And wholesale sales saw their biggest drop in six years that month, falling 3.3 per cent. That’s the largest single drop since Canada was in the midst of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, though it was preceded by a spike in sales the month before.

Put together, and the prospects for positive economic growth for January don’t look good. But not everyone is ready to throw in the towel on Canada’s economy just yet.

“Demand for Canadian-made goods should pick up thanks to a robust U.S. economy and a weak Canadian dollar — which likely has further room to fall,” TD economist Dina Ignjatovic wrote.

“Moreover, interest rates remain extremely accommodative, which should be supportive for manufacturers who need to increase capacity to meet demand.”

But with manufacturing showing a plunge when it should be growing, some are beginning to wonder whether it can actually offset the damage done by oil’s fall.

“We seriously doubt the consensus view that economic growth will subsequently accelerate again throughout the rest of this year and into next year,” wrote David Madani of Capital Economics.

“This seems like wishful thinking in our view. With the export led recovery still lacking strength, the downturn in the energy sector could push the economy close to stagnation during the course of the year, particularly if it is compounded by a housing slowdown.”

Still, unlike CIBC, Capital Economics doesn’t think Canada slipped into negative growth in January, and estimates GDP grew one per cent that month.

Copyright ©2015 TheHuffingtonPost.com, Inc.

Price gap widens between Toronto houses and condos

Monday, March 23rd, 2015

Jamie Henry
Other

The difference in price between a new house and a new condo in the Toronto market has widened to almost $300,000. Figures from RealNet Canada and the Building Industry and Land Building Association, show that the average cost of a new house in the GTA in February was $733,578, up 12 per cent from a year earlier. Condo prices in the same period rose just one per cent to $442,672 and declined during the first two months of the year. Land costs in Toronto have made high-end single-family homes and developments with smaller condo units the most valuable for developers. Resale properties are showing a similar gap, according to recent figures from the Toronto Real Estate Association, with an 11 per cent rise in house prices while condo prices were flat. … Full Story Below…

TAMSIN McMAHON The Globe and Mail

n a sign of things to come as Toronto’s spring housing market heats up, the gap between the price of a new house and a new condo skyrocketed to nearly $300,000 in February.

It was a fresh record for a market where intense competition has pushed the average price of a detached house over $1-million, while a flood of newly built condos, many of them aimed at investors, has kept prices flat.

The average price of a new house in the Greater Toronto Area hit $733,578 in February, up 12 per cent from a year earlier, data from real estate research firm RealNet Canada Inc. and the Building Industry and Land Development Association show. That figure includes the price of all low-rise housing: detached, semi-detached and townhouses.

The average price of a new condo, meanwhile, has gained less than 1 per cent over the past year, rising to $442,672 in February. New condo prices have actually fallen slightly in the past two months.

The growing disconnect between single-family and high-rise homes has pushed the price gap up nearly $40,000 since December.

Given that the numbers capture only newly built housing, the widening price gulf reflects the fact that the soaring cost of land in the Toronto area has shifted new single-family development toward higher-end homes, while pressure from investors to keep condo prices low has encouraged developers to shrink the size of units.

(The average unit size of newly built condos has fallen from 925 square feet a decade ago to 801 square feet today.)

But the divide also mirrors what is happening in the resale market, where the price gap between condos and houses hit nearly $250,000 in the first two weeks of March, Toronto Real Estate Association numbers showed. Resale house prices jumped 11 per cent this month compared with a year ago, while condo prices remained flat.

The widening gulf between condo and house prices was to be expected given that 2014 was a particularly strong year for new condo construction in Toronto. There were roughly 18,000 condo units built in Toronto last year, according to data from BuzzBuzzHome, a site that tracks new housing development, compared with about 1,200 single-family homes.

However, the numbers also reflect the shifting preferences of buyers in the region, who have becoming increasingly willing to bid up prices on the dwindling supply of single-family homes even as a glut of high-rise housing has given condo investors an abundance of choice.

Sales of newly built single-family homes jumped 17 per cent in February from a year ago, while condo sales were up 8.6 per cent, the building industry association said. Condo sales actually fell 6 per cent within the City of Toronto from a year earlier, although they rose in the suburbs.

But while Toronto’s condo boom tends to steal the spotlight, the shift away from single-family homes toward high-rise condo development has become a national phenomenon.

Investment in new high-rise construction jumped 6.4 per cent across the country in January compared to a year earlier, according to new numbers from Statistics Canada. At the same time, investment in construction of new single-family homes rose by just 2.3 per cent.

Much of that growth came from Alberta, where, despite a drop in oil prices, spending on new condo construction rose 14 per cent compared with the same time last year, a reflection of the fact that construction went ahead on many projects that were started when oil prices were still high.

British Columbia and Ontario, two provinces whose housing markets stand to benefit the most from cheaper oil, also saw spending on new home construction rise in January, up 11 per cent in B.C. and 3.6 per cent in Ontario.

Meanwhile, residential building investment fell 13.5 per cent in Manitoba and 9.7 per cent in Saskatchewan, Statistics Canada said, as the two resource-based provinces dealt with the aftermath of an earlier building boom.

© Copyright 2015 The Globe and Mail Inc. 

Leave it to the local sales reps, urges broker Marian deWever

Monday, March 23rd, 2015

Susan Doran
Other

You can’t stick your head out from under the bedcovers without hearing about globalization these days.

The media rarely misses an opportunity to hammer home the point that due to technology, the world is shrinking and economies everywhere are increasingly interconnected.

Real estate broker of record Marian deWever in Stratford, Ontario gets that. Although she’s aware that not everyone will agree with her, she strongly believes that despite the global economy, real estate should remain a local business.

“A variety of things contribute to value that Realtors cannot possibly know without being an area resident,” even if they do online research, she says. These can range from the various intricacies of understanding which neighbourhoods and school districts are desirable and where the boundaries of these lie, to in-depth knowledge of licensing, zoning, recreational facilities, parking requirements, pricing, history and crime rate.

Every community is unique, and when agents from far-flung municipalities who know little or nothing about an area represent clients moving there, they do them a disservice, deWever says.

This goes on everywhere, she says, not just in pretty Stratford, the hometown she shares with teen heartthrob Justin Bieber. (“He’s here a fair bit,” she says, for the benefit of any REM-reading Beliebers. “He still has high school buddies in Stratford and he comes and chills.”)

Mairan deWever, who has been in real estate for 26 years, is with Home & Company Real Estate, a boutique-style operation. In her observation, “There’s an influx of people purchasing in Stratford from larger destinations, such as Toronto.”

Gwen Kirkpatrick, EO of the Huron Perth Association of Realtors (HPAR), which includes Stratford and surrounding towns such as St. Marys, agrees that like many areas, theirs has started “to experience more inter-board listings,” particularly in the past couple of years.

While questioning whether agents from outside the area – some even from outside the province (which complicates insurance and liability issues) – are able to represent their buyers properly, the association’s main concern in this regard is the significantly increased workload it faces as a result of processing the added listings.

To help with this, some regions in Ontario now have plans to pool their data, “merging the databases of various nearby communities,” Kirkpatrick says. HPAR has not jumped on to that train yet, “but we will see,” she says.

There are many reasons a community becomes a draw to outside buyers…the fact that it is Justin Bieber’s birthplace not necessarily among them. Stratford, besides having a reputation as one of Canada’s loveliest cities and being home to the Stratford Festival, is far more affordable than Toronto and some other nearby municipalities, deWever says.

“Stratford has become a retirement destination,” she says. People buy second and investment properties in Stratford too, she adds, with one common usage being conversion to B&Bs. One fairly common problem deWever has witnessed with out-of-area agents is that, not knowing Stratford’s zoning and licensing requirements, they can wind up selling properties to aspiring B&B owners that do not qualify or meet the requirements once all is said and done.

Open houses by outside agents are another issue.

“We’re unique in Stratford in that all real estate offices are closed on Sundays, so open houses are on Saturdays instead,” says deWever. “But outside Realtors will have an open house on Sunday because they don’t know the market. I’ll see the signs – it’s just comical. Everyone else was out the day before. How is that in the best interests of clients?”

Similarly, outside real estate agents representing clients in various other communities may be unfamiliar or out of their depth dealing with issues such as soil erosion, Aboriginal land claims and so on. (The same goes for outside appraisers – they may not be able to decipher comparables properly since they don’t know the market, deWever says.)

“We’ll see Toronto Realtors with their buyer clients (sellers too, but less often),” says deWever. “The practical solution is for outside Realtors to understand that it is not in their clients’ best interests. Instead they should set up a referral network. Or if they are not comfortable handing off the client, they can come with them and work with us on a referral basis – let us be involved.”

She suggests that some good places to find salespeople to refer to clients include conferences, real estate Facebook groups for the target area and Realtor.ca.

Something to keep in mind, she says, is that referrals are often reciprocated.

Many agents argue that no one likes to lose clients and that selling out of area has worked well for them. But deWever feels it’s not worth the possible consequences of being unfamiliar with the local market and having that backfire. There is also the matter of time effectiveness, as hours of driving to and fro may be involved, she says.

In her opinion, “You are far better to build a referral network of like-minded Realtors rather than take the liability” and wasted effort.

Regina Dutt of Keller Williams Black Diamond Realty in Burnaby, B.C., concurs. “Absolutely I have a referral network,” Dutt says. “I would rather send a client to a specialist in an area than fake it.”

Local sales reps, knowing the area, are able to be passionate about it and to provide a history “that is not off the Internet,” Dutt adds.

Ron Stuart, partner with Harbourside Realty in Halifax, says referrals are typically 25 per cent. But he says, like most other aspects of real estate, referrals can be negotiable and competitive. “Some agents have a focus on incoming referrals and offer a premium to get the business,” he says.

Mere postings, disliked by many in real estate, are worth mentioning here.

Stuart says that he has known sales reps who “make a business of co-ordinating with an unlicensed online advertising company to obtain mere posting listings in many if not all jurisdictions across Canada. With mere postings they can avoid agency duties. The homeowner receives little or no pricing guidance.”

On the other hand, a sales rep operating under agency duties would generally have a duty to at least examine the property, provide pricing guidance and inform himself firsthand of the property’s condition, Stuart says.

The Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) makes it clear that sales reps need to have reasonable knowledge of what they are dealing with. Marian deWever and others argue that this is often not possible for agents from out of the area, thus compromising their transactions with clients.

© 2015 REM Real Estate Magazine

Canadian home price to fall 40 to 50 per cent #LesTwarog

Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

Jordan Maxwell
Other

Puffed up by years of ultra-low borrowing rates, home values have bloated to levels so far out of sync with the underlying incomes needed to support them, it’s only a matter of time before one headwind or another blows over the house of cards. According to Global News, a new book, When the Bubble Bursts, was released this month across the country, and is one of the most fulsome looks yet at the current state of Canada’s much-fretted over real estate market. Author Hilliard MacBeth says the Canadian real estate market is poised for a painful 40 to 50 per cent drop in value when the bubble pops. 

“The availability of financing. Canada is unique in the world in the availability of government insurance through CMHC [Canada Mortgage and House Corp.], that’s allowed the lenders to lend a phenomenal amount of money. [Household] debt levels have gone from one trillion dollars to $1.8 trillion, just in 15 years,” the report says. “I think the government has genuinely tried to encourage the housing market and home ownership, which started after the Second World War. But in the last 15 years it’s kind of taken on a life of its own. It’s this monster that nobody can really tame. The reality is, lenders don’t really take any risk, so they keep on providing more and more [loans].”

Copyright © 2015 Key Media Pty Ltd

 

Murrayville House exceptional homes in a fabulous beighbourhood #LesTwarog

Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

Other

Download Document

Chinese investment wave beyond Vancouver #LesTwarog

Tuesday, March 17th, 2015

Jordan Maxwell
Other

Vancouver is not alone in being rocked by real estate buyers from China. According to news1130.com, the explosive growth of the Chinese economy is fueling an international buying binge. Chinese purchases of foreign homes totalled $39 billion US last year, according to Real Capital Analytics, from less than one-tenth of a billion just six years earlier. Such investment is pushing up prices in Australia, the US, the UK and Hong Kong, according to Bloomberg reporter Bonnie Cao in New York, and they’re not necessarily billionaires. “A lot of them are actually professionals such as lawyers, doctors, engineers – not as in the old days.” 

Copyright © 2015 Key Media Pty Ltd