Richard Robins
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Richard Robbins Video on REBGV October 2019 Market Update
00:01
– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here.
00:02
Well, the numbers are in for the real estate board
00:04
of Greater Vancouver, and I got nothin’ but good news.
00:09
Maybe one little piece of bad news,
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but other than that, all good news.
00:12
Hey, at the end I got a brand new slide for you.
00:15
And what the slide is, it’s a line graph
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that’s gonna show you the amount of sales that took place
00:20
month to month, for the last three years.
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A great slide to maybe consider using
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in your listing presentations and working with buyers.
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So let’s go ahead and get started.
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Here we go, January through the end of August.
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Look at this, 2858 sales.
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That’s up 22% over September.
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That is a really big number, and we look at
00:42
our active listings, we had 12,200
00:46
and that is down 9% over September.
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So, if our sales are up 22%,
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our active listings are down 9%,
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what should be happening to our months of inventory,
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which determines your price, your supply and demand,
01:00
obviously going way down, it’s down 25.7%.
01:05
Now as I always say, your four to six months
01:07
of inventory is balanced, above six is going to be
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a buyer’s market, your prices are weakening,
01:12
below four it’s going to be a seller’s market,
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and your prices are strengthening.
01:16
Look at this, we have moved right into
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a balanced market, everybody.
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Look where we started, 9.8, almost 10 months
01:23
of inventory, and you can see what’s going on here,
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and now we’re at 4.3, not far off.
01:29
Starting to move into an area where you’re gonna see
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possibly your prices of certain properties
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really start to increase.
01:36
So all very good news.
01:37
You can even see here, our prices were almost exactly
01:40
stable, up .2% over the month before.
01:45
But let’s look at this right here.
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Sales, you did 1966 last October.
01:49
2858, that’s up by 45%!
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This is a huge number, right here.
01:56
And then what about price?
01:57
Well yes, your prices are down year over year, why?
02:00
Because, very much at the end of last year,
02:02
most of the first part of this year,
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you’re in a buyer’s market where prices were falling,
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but now again as I showed you back here,
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prices are now starting to stabilize a little bit.
02:11
And of course, what you’re gonna start to see,
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is you’re probably going to start to see this increase.
02:15
If not at the end of this year, you’re gonna start to see
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that increase definitely as we get into the first
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part of next year.
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So basically, all good news here.
02:23
Look at this one here, this is your months of inventory
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for the last three years.
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Now, this has got nothing to do with how many sales.
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This is only supply and demand, months of inventory.
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So look at it, 2017 we’re just above four.
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Obviously really strong here, we get down to two.
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You know, crept along at two, back up around three,
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and we ended the year at 3.5.
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What happened in 2018?
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Look where we started, way up here, was pretty-
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I should say, right here at four, and then
02:54
we were pretty balanced, but then what happened
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is we moved into the middle of the year,
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it just kept creeping up, kept creeping up
03:01
till we get to 9.6.
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Of course, we started this year
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at almost 10 months of inventory; very, very high.
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It came down a little bit as we get into the spring,
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as it generally does, May it dipped a little bit,
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but you’re still sitting here, and very close
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to a buyer’s market, back up to a buyer’s market.
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We’re over six, and then look what’s starting to happen.
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We dropped down below last year’s line, do you see that?
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This is really important.
03:26
So we dropped down below 2018, okay,
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and you can see the gap here is increasing, isn’t it?
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Which is a very good sign, I suspect you’re going to
03:35
see this continue for the rest of the year.
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Where you’re going to see we’re substantially below
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what we did in 2018.
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When we get down to where we were here in 2017,
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I don’t know for sure, but this is all really good news.
03:47
Completely moving the right way,
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and I’ll be honest, this market has responded
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to what’s been going on, quicker than I thought.
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In other words, we’re starting to see it crack
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very, very quickly.
04:00
I thought it would have taken a little longer.
04:02
But anyway, all good stuff.
04:03
So here’s your new graph.
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So you can see what this is, is this is the amount
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of sales that took place in the month.
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And we’ve got 2017, 18′, and 2019.
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So look at 2017, obviously, look at the sales.
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Over 3000, over 3000, we get up here we’re 4000,
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almost 4000, so you can see 2017, it was crazy good, right?
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Then what happened, moving to 2018,
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started here and of course, we’re down substantially.
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You see the gap, okay?
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Big difference right here.
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So this is a really cool graph that you could be showing,
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and we’re down here and you can see there’s
04:40
a pretty big gap between 2017 and 2018, in terms of sales.
04:45
Your sales were off a lot.
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Then we started here, huge gap, right?
04:50
Beginning of 2019, well below the year before,
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way below two years ago, then all of a sudden
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what started to happen here?
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We broke through.
05:00
And we went above what was going on last year,
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and look, we stayed above that.
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So you can see now, now there’s a gap between
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2018, and this gap got pretty big right here, look at this.
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Almost reaching what we did in 2017.
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So a really cool graph, actually both of these right here,
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I think are very useful in terms of presentation.
05:21
So what do I think is gonna happen?
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Well first of all, federal election is behind us, right?
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So a lot of people will get back to, you know,
05:28
the new norm, if you will.
05:30
You know, people are putting stuff off
05:32
because they wanted to wait and see what was gonna happen.
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I also think your market’s responding very well.
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You know, interest rates are still really low,
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I think the last two months of this year
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are going to be substantially better than
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the last two months of last year.
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And right now, barring any crazy economic change,
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say by the government, interests rates staying really low,
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I think 2020 is looking very, very bright
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for that Greater Vancouver Area.
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So anyway, I hope this was helpful, everybody.
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And at the end of the day, remember,
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it’s a beautiful life, make it count.
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