Archive for June, 2020

Banks, Borrowers, Broker or There has clearly been a communication breakdown educating about the implications of mortgage deferrals

Thursday, June 25th, 2020

Brokers, borrowers, the Big Six: Who dropped the ball on mortgage deferrals?

Clayton Jarvis
Mortgage Broker News

When COVID-19 shut down the Canadian economy in March, homeowners across the country, facing the prospect of falling behind on their mortgage payments through no fault of their own, panicked. Desperate to keep their heads above water, these borrowers were thrown a lifeline by Canada’s major financial institutions, who offered them the possibility of deferring those payments for six months.

Canadians flocked to deferral programs. The Big Six reported that they had allowed deferred payments on more than $180 billion of residential mortgage and real estate-secured loan balances in the three months prior to April 30. CIBC alone had offered deferral options to 108,000 customer accounts. As of May 21, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported that 27 percent of its mortgages in Quebec were in deferral; 26 percent were deferred in Alberta, 21 percent in Ontario. 

Mortgage deferment has so far helped prevent a wave of panic selling that could have sent the housing market into a catastrophic freefall. In that regard, it has been an overwhelming, inarguable success. But recent discussions with some of the country’s top mortgage brokers show that Canadian borrowers are still unaware of what deferring their mortgages means or what effects the process might have on their future relationships with lenders.

There has clearly been a communication breakdown. Did the country’s biggest banks fail to educate their borrowers fully on the implications of mortgage deferrals? Did brokers, overwhelmed by a surge in client requests, stumble in explaining the process to their clients? Or did borrowers rush into a program that sounded good without actually sounding it out?

 

The banks

MBN was first alerted to the possibility that Canada’s Big Six may have left borrowers misinformed about deferrals after following up on a widely-circulated CBC story about borrowers who were blindsided by the extra interest they would have to pay back to their lenders. Discussions with CIBC showed that the bank, whose client figured heavily in the CBC story, had provided customers with the option of either paying their interest off once their deferral periods ended or rolling those charges into their remaining balances. The choice was always theirs to make.

In late May, during a discussion with a GTA-based broker who wishes to remain anonymous, a similar issue arose around potential borrower misinformation.

The broker explains that a customer showed them the most recent credit report he had received from his Big Six lender. Prominently featured multiple times was the phrase “Mortgage Deferred Payment Plan”.

“This is the first time we’ve seen this on a credit report,” the broker says.

Alerting other lenders to a client’s inability to pay a mortgage is neither new nor nefarious. But it’s worth asking: How many homeowners who opted to defer their mortgages did so under the assumption that their situations would be looked at differently because COVID-19 was the sole reason behind their inability to pay? There could be thousands of homeowners now facing the prospect of dragging their damaged credit reports, which they assumed would remain healthy even after deferring their payments, to lenders who will now have far less interest in working with them.

“We can’t take this purchase to any lender, whether it’s an A-lender, a B-lender or the same lender they deferred with because now lenders see three mortgages deferred on the credit report,” the broker says.

It is possible borrowers are confused. Dave Butler of Butler Mortgage explains that credit bureaus like TransUnion and Equifax have said deferrals won’t show up as negative credit events on the credit scores they manage, but banks never made the same promise. That’s why Butler never saw deferrals as a silver bullet solution.

“Our theory was that if you go and defer a bunch of payments with, let’s say, Scotiabank, and then you go to Scotia for a refinance, that’s probably not going to look good,” he says.

MBN asked CIBC if the company had been upfront with clients about the potential impact mortgage deferrals could have on their relationship with the bank.

“Future mortgage approvals including refinancing are not affected by a client participating in the deferral program,” CIBC said in a statement.  

A Scotiabank spokesperson explained that customers who defer mortgage payments with the bank “can continue to renew or refinance their mortgage with Scotiabank during the mortgage deferral period and are subject to our standard adjudication criteria. Mortgage application and refinance decisions are based on a number of factors including income and employment status, amongst others.”

The disconnect between what the banks say, what their clients believe and what is being entered into those clients’ credit reports is a problem. While no bank can conceivably lay out every potential effect of a mortgage deferral for every client, financial institutions need to assume their clients know less than they do, not more, and provide the most stark, blatant, and easily digestible facts possible around deferrals. That includes information that might dissuade people from deferring their payments, like the potential ugly-fying of their credit reports.

 

The borrowers

Before coming down too hard on Canadian homeowners, it’s important to note how frightening a situation COVID-19 is for them. So many of them are hanging on by their fingernails, working and saving to maintain even that precarious position. If these hard-hit homeowners can put off mortgage payments at a time when their household incomes have been decimated, who says no? To many, it was the only reasonable choice.

But reason breaks down pretty quickly when the world no longer makes sense. It’s clear that some borrowers rushed into deferral programs without thinking twice about the long-term implications, such as added interest and tarnished credit reports. Others, however, have abused the system outright.

The unnamed broker says the client who was surprised by his credit report had the ability to keep making his payments, he just chose not to.

“This client deferred four mortgages,” the broker says. “Not because they needed it. It was because they thought, ‘Why not? I can create some cash flow right now.’ That’s completely the wrong reasoning for using a deferral.”

Enza Venuto of InTouch Mortgage Solutions says she has seen homeowners leverage deferrals as a way of engaging in some truly irresponsible behaviour: deferring multiple mortgages and using the funds to invest in the stock market while prices are low.

“I hear this all over,” she says. “I hope they did it right because last week the market went down again.”

What we have here is a failing of both banks and borrowers. Banks, largely due to the fees they charge clients for simply wanting to access their own money, are seen by most Canadians as predatory. When these clients have an opportunity to claw back a fraction of what they feel has been taken from them by a faceless, multi-billion-dollar corporation, some of them will. Everyone wants to feel like Robin Hood for a while.

“[Clients] basically say, ‘The bank is giving me this? Amazing. Let’s take it. Take everything,’” Venuto says.

Whether they abused the deferral system or not, it is ultimately the borrowers themselves who must take responsibility for their financial decisions. If they’re unsure about what a mortgage deferral is, there are literally thousands of brokers across the country willing to pick up the phone and talk them off the ledge. 

“If we’re smart enough to have a job and own a house, then we should be smart enough to weigh out the possible pros and cons before making rash decisions,” says Butler.

 

The brokers

Brokers have come out of the first few months of mortgage deferrals smelling awfully sweet, largely because the current situation allows them to do exactly what they’re paid for: educating consumers and providing help when the banks can’t.

Butler and Venuto were both proactive in talking to their clients and hammering home the point that mortgage deferrals are not for everyone because their long-term impact may not be positive.

“If you were a good broker, you got the message out to your customer to say, ‘No, no, no, no. Do it if you need it. If you don’t need it, don’t do it,” Butler says.

Judging by the number of Canadians who did not call a broker for help, there could be somewhat of a messaging problem that the mortgage industry should address. If Canadian borrowers don’t feel comfortable reaching out for assistance from the people who know mortgages inside and out, why is that? What barriers are preventing people from doing something as simple as picking up the phone or tapping out an email and asking an expert for advice?

Those are questions in need of speedy answers. The deferral clock is ticking, and if it strikes 12 when tens of thousands of homeowners are still unable to make their payments, there will be a level of panic the country has never seen. What kind of rushed decisions will be made then?

“When people panic, they don’t know where to turn to,” Venuto says. “When all they see is an online application and they need assistance, they click that button. They do what they have to do. “You can’t control that.”

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Macro Research Board reports that Canadian housing market on thin ice

Thursday, June 25th, 2020

Report says housing market is due for a crash

David Kitai
Mortgage Broker News

A report from an international macroeconomic research firm says that Canada’s economy is headed for a long, difficult period due largely to the effects of COVID-19 and the weaknesses in Canada’s housing market.

The report “Canada on thin ice as it heats up” by Macro Research Board (MRB) partners paints a bleak picture. The report says that Canada has followed global trends in falling into a ‘sudden stop’ recession with high unemployment and a plunge in activity. It says that Canada is more exposed than most economies, however, because of “an unstable real estate bubble and household credit binge.” It says policymakers are putting off the day of reckoning but have run out of ammunition and there is no guarantee they can prevent a housing bust. The report says such a correction will have long-term positive effects in creating more caution among Canadian consumers, the short to medium term will be a rocky road to recovery.

“The Canadian economy has been increasingly driven over the past decade by the real estate boom and debt-fueled consumption binge,” The report reads. “In turn, a substantial housing and credit bubble has developed on the back of overly accommodative policy. We previously identified Canada as a candidate for a future housing downturn and deleveraging cycle but had noted that there was a lack of a sufficient adverse catalyst to bring these imbalances home to roost3. That all changed this year. The heightened uncertainty caused by the surge in unemployment and plunge in household confidence may encourage many Canadians to reconsider stretching beyond their means heading forward.”

While the report notes that the Canadian government is aggressively attempting to prevent a major deleveraging cycle, if it does develop it may prove to difficult and costly to stop. They say most indices they’re watching, such as upticks in shopping or downturns in the amount of time Canadians are spending at home, don’t point to a surging restart in the Canadian economy.

Unemployment surging is, according to MRB partners, a “massive headwind” for Canada’s housing market. While low rates and stimulus are helpful, if job losses prove sticky during the reopening there’s a risk of a crash in the market. MRB’s analysts say Canada needs a V-shaped recovery to avoid such a crash.

Underlying this issue, according to the report, is a decade of surging property values and a deterioration in household balance sheets, with many Canadians now living in massive levels of consumer debt. Despite aggressive support policy, MRB says the housing bubble they see is set to burst, though they are closely watching activity as restrictions on viewings ease.

The report doesn’t make a regional breakdown of Canadian housing numbers, but does raise the concern that supply was already beginning out outpace demand before the pandemic. Unsold inventories have been surging over the past two years, at levels close to housing crash of the early 90s. As builders get back to work earlier than much of the general economy, the record levels of construction in cities like Toronto pose a risk of glutting the market.

MRB’s report says that emergency measures like CERB, the wage subsidy, and the deferral of mortgages, all risk compounding the problem. If they’re allowed to run out at a certain time and the economy fails to make a rapid and stark restart, MRB is highly concerned about the possibility of a “deferral cliff.”

“Extreme fiscal policy efforts are providing temporary support but it will prove difficult for Canadian policymakers to prevent a material housing fallout, unless the domestic (and global) economy experience a V-shaped recovery and soon restore employment to pre-shutdown levels (which we are not expecting),” the report reads. “Substantial oversupply and the lack of valuation support are major problems at a point when the housing market faces new and powerful headwinds. When homeowners are stretching to buy, they need to believe that their jobs are secured (and wages will increase) and that their home value will continue to appreciate. If these conditions are threatened (which is now the case), it can quickly weaken confidence and housing demand, causing prices to fall substantially. This was last seen in the U.S. and parts of Europe during the late-2000s. Canada is now at the cusp of heading down this path if employment and job security do not rebound strongly and shortly.”

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Just West 46-96 King Edward Avenue 55 garden suites and townhomes by Sightline Properties

Thursday, June 25th, 2020

Just West offers convenient location near rapid transit and urban amenities

Simon Briault
The Province

It’s not hard to find a condo for sale in Vancouver. You won’t have too many problems finding a single-family home either — if you’re lucky enough to be able to afford one, of course. But a townhome? Not so much.

“In the City of Vancouver there is a clear difference between what people can afford and what they want,” said Jamie Vaughan, a director and owner of Vancouver development firm Sightline Properties. “Historically, Vancouver has not built many townhomes.”

“There has been some new zoning in the last few years in places like Marpole that has allowed it,” Vaughan added. “But really if you want to get into the Vancouver market you need millions and millions of dollars to buy a single-family home or you need to buy a small condo. If you are a family, a small condo is not ideal, and a single-family home may not be achievable.”

Just West is Sightline Properties’ answer to what the company sees as a significant unmet need. The development will be in one of the most desirable and family-friendly areas of Vancouver. It will include smaller garden suites priced from $799,900, but the main attraction here are the one-, two- and three-bedroom and den townhomes priced from $1,430,900. Homes range in size from 631 to 1,840 square feet.

“It’s really the missing middle that we’re catering to here,” said Vaughan. “In the last decade families have left the city because they need to find an appropriate home and townhomes is often where they land.”

Sightline Properties is the creation of three founding partners that have extensive real estate experience. Just West is the fledgling company’s first project, but together the developers’ experience adds up to working on thousands of units, according to Vaughan.

“We’ve been friends for a while and had been talking about starting something on our own,” he said. “Sightline grew out of that. We feel like we really cover the full spectrum of real estate and understand how development and especially construction works.”

“We like this product because it offers families the opportunity to get into something that’s bigger than a condo but not as expensive as a single-family home,” said Vaughan. “Then they can stay in the city that they love. We see our demographic as very family oriented and the bulk of what we’re offering are stacked, three-story townhomes. They’re desperately needed in the city.”

Just West is at 46 to 96 King Edward Avenue. It is by no means the busiest East-West artery in the city, but it’s connected to an enviable range of local attractions, parks, amenities and transit options. Cambie Village, a vibrant shopping and entertainment district between West 6th Avenue and King Edward (at 25th Avenue), is within easy walking distance. King Edward Canada Line Station is less than 10 minutes away by foot and provides rapid transit to the airport or downtown Vancouver. Queen Elizabeth Park is also nearby and just to the south of Just West, you have what Vaughan calls one of the best community centres in town.

It’s hard to argue with him. Hillcrest Centre features a huge aquatic facility, a fitness centre, an ice rink, a gymnasium, indoor cycling, multi-purpose rooms, a games room, a dance studio, playgrounds, a childcare centre and a café.

“It’s such an amenity-rich area in general that you literally can step out your door and you have endless options for anything you want to do,” said Vaughan. “The proximity to downtown is awesome too. If you work downtown, jumping on a Canada Line train or getting on your bike is no problem at all.”

As for the homes at Just West, Vaughan says one of the key attractions is the rooftop patios, which are well over 300 square feet and offer the type of outdoor living space you would expect to find in a single-family home. Elsewhere, the kitchens feature large islands, engineered quartz countertops, custom-built quartz shelves above the ranges for additional storage and built-in recycling centres. The appliance packages are by Miele.

Bathrooms feature custom shower ledges, white porcelain tiling, frameless shower doors, custom vanities with grooved cabinet detail and large storage drawers. Some of the homes will also have freestanding bathtubs.

Vaughan is confident the location of Just West and the quality of the homes on offer will bring in buyers even though the COVID-19 pandemic has created huge uncertainty in the real estate industry — among many others.

“We believe in the product and we know that the location is as good as it gets,” he said. “Ultimately, when things settle down, people are going to want to buy because there’s such a big demand for this type of housing in the city.”

Just West

Project location: 46-96 King Edward Ave., Vancouver

Project size: 55 garden suites and townhomes with between one and three bedrooms and den. Garden suites start at $799,900, townhomes start at $1,430,900 and units range in size between 631 and 1,840 square feet.

Developer: Sightline Properties

Architect: Shape Architecture

Interior designer: Annaliesse Kelly Design

Sales centre: 479 West 16th Ave., Vancouver

Sales centre hours: Open on weekends 12 noon to 5 p.m. and weekdays by appointment

Sales phone: 604.734.8883

Website: justwest.ca

© 2020 Postmedia Network Inc

Pandemic’s economic effects could haunt Metro Vancouver housing into 2022

Thursday, June 25th, 2020

Pandemic could dent Metro house prices for years, CMHC suggests

Derrick Penner
The Province

A downturn in Metro Vancouver housing markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic could range from gloomy to downright dismal through 2022, according to the national housing agency’s latest report.

Prices have shown some immediate signs of stability since the collapse of sales at the start of the shutdown as markets froze, but that isn’t expected to hold through 2021 and ’22, in the analysis of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

“The price signal that we’re getting from the market, we don’t really consider it representative of how (the market) is going to evolve,” said CMHC analyst Eric Bond.

Instead, Bond expects that the loss of 275,000 jobs in Metro since the start of the pandemic and a virtual shutdown of immigration, both drivers of property demand, to take hold more visibly in the market.

“What we’ve seen, has been a very rapid increase in unemployment in Vancouver, so progressed from about five per cent, before the pandemic, to 14 per cent. In May,” Bond said. “That impacts consumer confidence and impacts people’s ability to pay for major purchases like housing and the uncertainty around it could last for some time.”

And over time, in Metro, that could mean average home prices falling eight per cent to $885,000 or plummeting as deeply as 16 per cent to $805,153 at a trough in about the middle of 2022 before recovering, according to the forecast.

“To be very clear, we are not forecasting, in any way, a financial crisis here,” Bond said.

CMHC, the Bank of Canada and the federal government have all taken emergency measures to make sure there is capital available for banks, and qualified borrowers can still get into the market, but “there will be significant challenges,” Bond said.

CMHC released the updated market outlook Tuesday, following up from its May 27 outlook report, which began to grapple with estimates of how the sudden COVID-sparked shutdown of the economy will impact housing markets at the provincial and national levels.

Tuesday’s news release looked more closely at urban markets and for Vancouver, its expectations are that housing resales will remain low for the rest of 2020, before recovering in 2021.

The forecast estimates that housing sales could fall to between 15 and 24 per cent by the fourth quarter of the year, compared with the first quarter. That would be as low as 27,608-24,342 units by the end of 2020.

Before the pandemic began, CMHC estimated sales would top 32,362 units by the end of 2020. At the moment, however, realtors are experiencing some renewed interest in the market, according to Vancouver agent Adil Dinani.

“There’s a window that we’re seeing now where people are coming out back into the market,” said Dinani, a realtor with Royal Lepage.

Dinani said Metro sales in May were down 45 per cent from a year ago, but that isn’t as bad as the 65-70 per cent decline in sales experienced at the depths of the shutdown in March and April when only people who absolutely had to buy and sell were trading properties.

Prices, however, haven’t moved much, Dinani said, because a flood of people also took their homes off the market leaving little inventory.

In the last 30 days, Dinani’s office has sold 15 homes, which “is a very active month for us,” he said.

“So, if you have job stability, which fortunately, touch wood, a lot of our clients do, the move is there,” Dinani said. “Could we see that towards the end of the year where more folks need to sell because their financial position hasn’t improved, sure that’s a very realistic possibility.

“There’s no benchmark for this, so we’re kind of going with it.”

Bond said there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast and whether it follows the upper or lower range of its trend depends on how quickly or slowly jobs recover and immigration begins again.

“If the restrictions are lifted and migration is able to resume later this year, next year or targets for migration are increased, we will see that play an important role in recovery in the region as well,” Bond said.

© 2020 Postmedia Network Inc

CMHC projects trajectories for Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal real estate in new summer outlook

Wednesday, June 24th, 2020

McLister says employment and income remain key factors in housing market

David Kitai
Mortgage Broker News

On Tuesday, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation released its summer 2020 Housing Market Outlook, the most recent in a series of wild guesses the organization has made around the post-COVID-19 growth expected in Canada’s major housing markets.

The report forecasts a long road to recovery for Canadian housing but says certain markets will recover faster than others. Cities built around the service sector will likely rebound faster, as companies operating in the space are able to operate remotely. Those reliant on oil and gas, like Alberta’s major metropolitan areas, have been deemed the riskiest in Canada.

Robert McLister, founder of RateSpy.com, has little patience for CMHC’s recent projections.

“Forecasting the recovery time-frame is like forecasting next winter’s snowfall,” McLister told MBN. “How can you confidently know when a vaccine will be widely available, or how many people won’t be rehired, or how long government income support will last, or if mortgage deferrals will be extended, or when immigration will ramp back up, or how many homeowners will panic-sell, and so on and so on.”

McLister stressed that employment and income numbers remain the key metrics in predicting the future of Canada’s housing markets.

Past recessions have seen significant depressions in home prices, even if only temporarily. McLister says, though, that policy moves like the CERB coupled with a disproportionate unemployment hit to non-homebuying demographics might see Canada avoid the price slumps of 1981, 1990, and 2009.

Migration – one more giant question mark

The report raised concerns around the moratorium on migration due to the pandemic, noting that rental housing will be the most impacted by a lack of new immigrants. McLister agrees, saying a drop in immigration is unlikely to directly impact the purchase market in the short-term. CMHC believes that reduced immigration could lead to a brief decrease in housing starts, which could impact already strained supply levels.

It’s a concern shared by James Laird, co-founder of RateHub.ca.

“[I]n the longer term, we’ll see slowed house construction, which might counterbalance the immigration effects we’d see in the long term,” he says, stressing the important role immigration plays in supporting both population growth and the Canadian housing market.

“Removing immigration takes away a significant variable that was adding a lot of demand in major urban centres,” he says. “We’ve been welcoming hundreds of thousands of new Canadians every year, many of them coming with wealth and looking to buy a home. Until immigration is able to open up again, that will take some demand from the market.”

City by city

Edmonton and Calgary are the two highest risk Canadian cities listed on the report, due to their deep economic ties to oil and gas. McLister says brokers in Alberta should “hope oil stays north of $40 a barrel,” and secure a HELOC for clients that might need access to their equity in future.  

Vancouver housing sales had been slowly recovering from a recent nadir in 2018/19. The report says the pandemic is likely to slow that recovery even further. Rentals in Vancouver, too, are more exposed to the impacts of rising unemployment and a closed border. Coupled with ongoing construction projects, the report predicts an increase in the supply of rental housing coupled with falling demand.

The report predicts that housing starts in Toronto will rebound in 2021, recovering faster than the rest of Ontario. Sales and prices are predicted to rebound in 2022 largely due to a well-developed service economy in Toronto, especially financial services, which could see economic recovery ongoing in Toronto despite a potential second wave of the virus. The report says that with construction restarting in Toronto, there could be a glut of housing stock on the market that outpaces a depressed demand.

McLister isn’t panicking, though. He says indicators like HouseSigma’s median GTA price trend,  which suggests median prices could hit all-time highs in June, are reason for hope

CMHC says Montreal’s housing boom, which hit new heights in Q1 of 2020, was snuffed out by the pandemic. Recovery there may follow a similar trajectory to Toronto’s, but migration numbers in coming years will play an even more significant role in the vacancy rate for Canada’s second largest city. 

In this environment of uncertainty and regional disparity, James Laird says that brokers need to rely on practice fundamentals and a commitment to client service.

“The benefit of being a mortgage broker is we’re able to ebb and flow with what happens in the market, when purchases dry up we can refocus on refinances and renewals,” Laird says. “By nature we’re resilient. Brokers need to continue to focus on the financial health of the household and make sure people are prudent with what they’re purchasing and I think we should be fine through the coming years.”

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Crown corporation announces loan program for mid-sized businesses hurt by COVID-19

Wednesday, June 24th, 2020

Mid-size business are companies with revenues between 100M and 500M

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

The Business Development Bank of Canada has announced that it will be providing loans for medium-scale companies that were significantly impaired by the COVID-19 pandemic as part of the federal government’s credit assistance programs.

Through their preferred banks, mid-sized businesses whose incomes were cut short by the global outbreak can apply for BDB loans from $12.5 million up to $60 million. BDB will be covering 90% of the loan, with the remainder to be handled by the applicant’s bank.

BDB defined mid-scale businesses as companies with revenues ranging from $100 million to $500 million, which were “financially viable” before the coronavirus took hold in Canada.

Qualifying businesses can apply until the end of September, The Canadian Press reported.

The announcement came amid the implementation of commercial eviction bans in several provinces, leaving landlords scrambling for ways to make up for their significant losses during the coronavirus outbreak.

However, Colliers Canada said in an analysis earlier this month that the bans are not likely to affect commercial landlords significantly.

“There aren’t a lot of new tenants out there, so landlords aren’t running out there trying to evict people,” said John Duda, president of real estate management services for Colliers Canada. “It’s a last resort. It’s always the last resort.”

If anything, the bans are unlikely to help in the long run, Duda said.

“What we think this actually does do, is the tenants who were doing badly before [COVID-19], and are simply doing way worse now, it means the inevitable is just going to get delayed,” Duda said. “At the end of the day, the landlords want people to be paying rent.”

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

LGBTQ home buyers can now look for Zillow listings in states with anti-discrimination laws

Wednesday, June 24th, 2020

US Supreme Court ruled gender identity and sexual orientation protected

Candyd Mendoza
other

In light of the significant civil rights win for LGBTQ Americans last week, Zillow has announced that all for-sale and rental listings on its platform now includes data on LGBT local legal protections.

After years of pride marches and persistent social movements, the efforts of LGBTQ Americans have started to pay off as the US Supreme Court ruled that gender identity and sexual orientation were now protected under Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which prohibits sex discrimination in employment and housing.

To provide home shoppers with more information on this matter, Zillow has created a data-powered resource that shows if a for-sale or rental listing is in a community where state and local regulations explicitly protect LGBTQ people from housing discrimination.

“It’s 2020, and yet, unfortunately, in many parts of the United States, LGBTQ+ home shoppers still face housing discrimination,” said Dawn Lyon, Zillow chief corporate relations officer. “That’s why we strongly support federal-level protections as part of the Equality Act. In lieu of federal law and in the spirit of ‘turning on the lights,’ we want to give people the most information possible when buying, renting and financing a home, including which communities provide equal protection under the law for all.” 

Currently, only 22 US states and the District of Columbia offer statewide legal protection from housing discrimination – forbidding landlords from evicting, and refusing those who identify as LGBTQ to rent or buy a home based on their sexual orientation or transgender status. However, those laws can vary significantly by jurisdiction and do not exist at the federal level.

While these states give LGBTQ people with a sense of equality, Zillow found in a recent study that buying a home or renting in a state, city, or county with explicit legal protection from discrimination comes at a sky-high price for the LGBTQ community.

In jurisdictions that have statewide non-discriminatory housing protections in place, LGBTQ home buyers pay an average $328,575 for a typical home, nearly 63% higher than in areas with no LGBTQ protections. This means typical home values in those areas are about $127,000 higher than home values in places without.

Copyright © 2020 Key Media Pty Ltd

Conference Board of Canada foreseeable outlook for Canadian Real Estate economy

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020

Conference Board releases mid-term outlook for Canadian real estate, economy

Clayton Jarvis
Mortgage Broker News

On Monday, the Conference Board of Canada released its anticipated look at the mid-term future of the Canadian economy. The Board’s Canadian Outlook Summary: Summer 2020, in contrast to projections made by institutions like the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, predicts less dramatic declines in housing prices, but its remaining insights track closely with projections that see the damage done to Canada’s economy at the hands of COVID-19 lingering well into 2021.

 

In what the Board is calling the “deepest and shortest recession on record”, Canada’s economy is expected to contract by 8.2% in 2020. According to Conference Board chief economist and contributor to the Outlook, Robin Wiebe, that puts the COVID-19 recession miles beyond past downturns. From the second quarter of 1976 until the end of 1982, GDP fell by almost four percent. It fell 2.3 percent between Q3 1987 and the second quarter of 1991. The recession associated with the 2007 financial crisis saw GDP growth shrink by 3.3 percent.

 

“It is pretty stark, there’s no question about that,” says Wiebe of the contrast.

The Board’s projections, however, are far from pessimistic. After adding almost 300,000 new positions in May, the job market is expected to maintain some sense of momentum over the next year-plus. Unemployment is expected to peak at 13.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020, but once another 1.3 million jobs are added in the third quarter, unemployment will start returning from its brief sojourn to the stratosphere. Unemployment is expected to remain above seven percent until late 2021. The rebound in hiring is expected to be more pronounced in industries such as financial services, professional services, manufacturing, and construction.

International trade is expected to be devastated by COVID-19, with export volumes falling by 14.3 percent and imports falling by 13.8 percent this year. Neither sector is expected to grow by more than eight percent in 2021. No surprise, then, that business investment is projected to decline by 11.3 percent in 2020.

 

 

Canadian housing in 2020 and 2021

 

When it comes to housing, the Conference Board appears to be far more optimistic than CMHC. Whereas CMHC has said home prices may fall by as much as 18 percent following COVID-19, the Board is projecting a possible decline of 11 percent in the average existing home price between the first and third quarters of 2020. But because of raucous pre-COVID buying activity, the Board is predicting a drop in the average resale price of only 1.6 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2021.

 

“I think we might be a little more optimistic on the employment front,” than CMHC, Wiebe says, adding that the Board sees economic growth starting up earlier than CMHC, as well. 

There will still be considerable discomfort for borrowers and prospective buyers. Travel habits aren’t expected to recover until late 2021, which is an awfully long time for the owners of short-term rental properties to survive without the above-market rents they (and their lenders) have come to depend on. CMHC’s new guidelines around borrowing, set to be implemented on July 1, will push untold numbers of first-time home buyers further to the sidelines. Housing starts are expected to drop precipitously, as well, meaning the buyers who remain in the market will inevitably be paying more for their properties.

But Wiebe is confident in the market’s ability to weather the storm.

 

“I do believe that the overall housing market is going to be strong in the medium-term,” he says. “Housing starts have been below household formations for seven of the eight years going into 2019, so there is pent-up demand.” If the economy rebounds “relatively decently” through 2020 and 2021, Wiebe says local housing markets should regain their strength by 2023 or 2024.

It’s important to note that the Conference Board’s projections are based on a number of assumptions, including:

  • Canada avoids a second severe outbreak of COVID-19 that shuts down the economy
  • A vaccine is made widely available to Canadians by June 2021
  • The Canada Emergency Response Benefit winds down in October and funds shift toward the Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy until a vaccine is available
  • Canada returns to announced federal targets for international immigration in 2022

That’s a lot for people to hang their hopes on. As has been seen in the U.S. over the last two weeks, weak social distancing practices can quickly pull communities back into the COVID-19 quagmire. For Canada’s economy to rebound in a significant, continuous manner – more jobs, more investment, more spending by Canadian consumers – mitigating the spread of COVID-19 is a must. Otherwise, the Conference Board’s projections of economic growth, along with the hopes of 37 million Canadians, will need to be downgraded significantly.

 

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Consumer Gen-Zers and millennials forcing to delay home purchase because of Covid-19

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020

COVID-19 forcing millennials, Gen Z to delay home purchases ? TransUnion

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

Gen-Zers and millennials are the consumer cohorts most affected by COVID-19, with a recent TransUnion survey finding that 21% and 16%, respectively, have temporarily shelved their plans to enter homeownership.

For perspective, the coronavirus outbreak stymied the purchases of only 8% of Gen-Xers and 6% of boomers. Across all age groups, around 12% of Canadians have delayed their new home transactions.

A separate TransUnion analysis in late April indicated that 57% of Canadians suffered income declines due to the pandemic, with another 10% bracing themselves for further decreases over the next few months.

A KPMG poll earlier this year found that 46% of Canadian millennials are already in financial despair, with the disillusionment stemming from mounting personal debt and stagnant salaries.

TD Economics reported last month that the pandemic will devastate more jobs held by younger Canadians as they heavily rely upon the service and sales industries. These sectors are among the most affected by coronavirus-impelled labour losses.

“The shock to income comes at a time when many are swimming in debt to a greater extent than the generations that came before them,” TD said. “Economic research shows that entering the job market during an economic downturn has lasting effects on lifetime earnings, with gaps in income relative to luckier cohorts lasting for up to a decade.”

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Metro Vancouver condominium rental market ride out during pandemic

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020

Vancouver condo rentals ride out pandemic

Frank O’Brien
Western Investor

Metro Vancouver’s condominium rental market – which involves approximately 69,000 units owned by investors, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.(CMHC) – is riding out the pandemic well, but tenants are increasing taking over the driver’s seat.

Only one of 300 tenants renting a Metro Vancouver condominium through Birds Nest Properties missed paying rent in May and June, for example, according to company director Michael Leung, but he said some clients of his boutique rental agency have trimmed rent to keep tenants in place.

About 12 per cent of Birds Nest tenants, who pay an average rent of $2,200 per month for a condo apartment, applied for the B.C. government’s rental subsidy,Leung said.

The subsidy, unique in Canada, pays $300 per month for a tenant and $500 per month for a tenant with a dependant, and was recently extended to the end of August.

The aid is available to tenants who have sufferered at least a 25 per cent drop in income due to COVID-19.

“Things have been going pretty smoothly. We have had only one tenant unable to pay the rent so far and she is making partial payments,” Leung said. “I checked and there has been no increase in late payments during the pandemic” compared to a year ago.”

All of Birds Nest clients are condo investors who hold one to four rental units in Vancouver, Burnaby or Richmond. While noting that the government’s $300 per month subsidy is not much help to tenants paying more than $2,000 in rent, Leung said it is welcomed.

“I give the B.C. government full credit on the rental subsidy. They delivered it very efficiently. ” 

Birds Nest condo owners have been quick to offer rental assistance to those who don’t qualify for the government subsidy, such as students who do not meet the income -loss qualification, and some have even lowered the rent in an effort to keep a good tenant in place, he said.

“The condo rental market has definitely come off. It is down 10 per cent to 20 per cent [in rents], and we are seeing higher vacancies,” Leung said. About 5 per cent of Birds Nest properties are currently vacant, partially due, he said, to some owners holding out for higher rents.

That could be a mistake, according to a CMHC housing report released June 23.

“Lower immigration and less mobility coupled with an overhang of buildings under construction could lead to vacancy rates increasing in the rental market.” CMHC’s Covid-19 Housing Market Outlook for Metro Vancouver noted, added the softening could be “short-lived” because rental demand is expected to increase post-pandemic.

Pre-pandemic, the vacancy rate for Metro Vancouver rental condos was 0.3 per cent, according to CMHC.

However, half of the tenants surveyed in a June national survey by rental.ca said they would be looking for a more affordable place to rent because of the COVID-19 pandemic. It appears that some tenants will now be testing rent negotiation from the driver’s seat.

 

© Copyright 2020 Western Investor