Federal government releases more details of five-year housing initiative

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

11-storey, mixed-use building proposed near future Kitsilano transit hub

James Bombales
Livabl

Renderings of the massive redevelopment of Vancouver’s Molson brewery

Kenneth Chan
other

Daily Hive Urbanized provided the first glimpse of Concord Pacific’s proposed redevelopment plans of the Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver in December 2019.

And now, additional details and renderings show the true breadth of the massive mixed-use redevelopment of the 7.6-acre industrial property, located at the south end of the Burrard Street Bridge.

 

The developer intends to build a redevelopment with a total floor area of 1.8 million sq ft, including 300,000 sq ft of office space with high ceilings, ground-level retail, restaurant, and showroom spaces, and 3,000 homes within towers between 15 and 25 storeys in height.

The towers are interconnected by a multi-storey podium and multi-storey rooftop sky bridge, but the redevelopment gains its name — Quantum Park — from its two large glass-covered atriums, which are inspired by the shape of wormholes in quantum theory.

Existing condition of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Google Maps)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

This inspiration leads to the form and funnel design of the glass roof spanning between the podium structures, creating an expansive covered public space. The building fronting Burrard Street is organized around these covered atrium, while the overall complex revolves around a large central plaza.

 

The atriums also feature green walls, and the funnel-shaped glass roofs provide the natural ability to collect rainwater for reuse in landscaping irrigation.

 

Artistic rendering and cross-section of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

“The two atriums represent each end of a wormhole and are the focal point of the building, where natural forces bind with technological excellence,” reads a marketing brochure.

“Glass structures above are designed to harness natural light, rain and air, providing bright and stimulating multi-level workspaces within a natural environment.”

On the rooftops, Quantum Park will have a total of three acres of green roofs, making it the largest green roof of an office complex in Western Canada. Sphere-like glass pavilions on the roof provide an enhanced functional amenity space on the rooftop.

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

Other offerings include a health club, co-working spaces, electric-battery vehicle charging for all parking stalls, and an automated touch-less car washing facility.

“Building a successful and interactive community that fosters sustainable growth is at the core of Quantum Park. Both inclusive and vibrant, Quantum Park is a habitat for everyone to work and live organically,” reads a marketing brochure.

“The multi-use campus presents a community within a community: green space, offices, retail, health, fitness, and entertainment. Thoughtfully curated retail operators will complement the lifestyle of a modern-day professional. With amenities available on location and on-demand, the experience at Quantum Park will be of seamless convenience and aspirational living.”

The brochure notes the design takes cues from vibrant urban destinations such as Shibuya in Tokyo and Times Square in New York City. The redevelopment’s 700-ft-long podium facade along Burrard Street will have signage branding opportunities for the commercial tenants.

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

With all that said, it should be noted that this proposal is currently in its pre-application stage; no formal application has been submitted to the municipal government, and the site’s switch from traditional industrial to comprehensive, non-industrial uses also requires approval from Metro Vancouver Regional District.

The proposal’s significant office component is intended to substitute the loss of employment space from the existing industrial uses, although the former brewery only employed no more than up to 200 people over the past decade before its closure. In 2016, Concord Pacific acquired the property from Molson Coors, which recently completed a new and larger replacement plant serving the Western Canada market in Chilliwack.

 

Site plan of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Site plan of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

This redevelopment concept was also created before the revelation and approval of Senakw, located immediately to the north, in late 2019. Nearly a year ago, members of the Squamish First Nation approved the redevelopment of their 11.7-acre Kitsilano reserve consisting of 6,000 homes within 11 towers up to 56 storeys in height.

Senakw and Quantum Park combined will create nearly five million sq. ft. of total floor area, 9,000 new homes for tens of thousands of residents, and office and retail space for thousands of jobs.

Quantum Park’s proposed floor space ratio (FSR) density is about 5.4 times the size of the brewery site, while Senakw’s FSR is approximately 6.0.

There is also an opportunity for Concord Pacific to refine its design to take Senakw’s form and public realm connectivity into account. As well, Senakw’s taller tower forms could create a view shadow for Quantum Park, potentially enabling the developer to consider higher buildings in its proposal.

This past summer, Concord Pacific acquired one of the last remaining large redevelopment sites within the downtown Vancouver peninsula — the 6.6-acre old St. Paul’s Hospital at 1081 Burrard Street. The hospital will relocate to a new facility in the False Creek Flats, and the mixed-use redevelopment of the old property will help fund the construction of the new healthcare campus. Concord Pacific acquired the hospital for about $1 billion.

In 2015, the developer acquired the six-acre Westin Bayshore Hotel in Coal Harbour for about $300 million. A mixed-use redevelopment of the hotel would entail luxury housing, a new upscale hotel, and a new and larger world-scale replacement facility for the Vancouver Maritime Museum.

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Artistic rendering of Quantum Park, the redevelopment of the old Molson Coors brewery in Vancouver. (Concord Pacific)

 

Model of Concord Pacific’s highly preliminary design concept for the old Molson Coors brewery development in Vancouver. (Kenneth Chan/Daily Hive)

 

Model of Concord  Pacific’s highly preliminary design concept for the old Molson Coors brewery development in Vancouver. (Kenneth Chan/Daily Hive)

 

Model of Concord Pacific’s highly preliminary design concept for the old Molson Coors brewery development in Vancouver. (Kenneth Chan/Daily Hive)

 

Model of Concord Pacific’s highly preliminary design concept for the old Molson Coors brewery development in Vancouver. (Kenneth Chan / Daily Hive)

© Copyright 2020 Urbanized

Condo buyers lost much of their down payments during the pandemic ? analysis

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

On average, Canadian condo buyers have lost more than three-quarters of their own down payments over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an analysis of data from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In its review of the CREA figures, real estate information portal Better Dwelling said that the average Canadian condo price fell by 0.1% from April.

After taking insurance into account, and assuming a 5% down payment, this translates to an average of 78% of a condo buyer’s down payment lost. As a disclaimer, Better Dwelling said that this calculation did not include any possible payments over the period due to the widespread loss of income nationwide.

Using the same calculation, Toronto was found to be especially worse off. Average condo price decline from April was at 1.86%, translating to a negative 111.2% return in equity. Even including payments over the period only leads to around 0.827% equity.

“This is one of those cases where owners made payments to get barely above water,” Better Dwelling said.

The analysis warned that these trends have troubling implications for those who are looking to downsize due to the cost of condo upkeep.

“Being too broke to sell is a real thing. Buyers only default if they can’t sell in a timely fashion, after a bout of shock,” Better Dwelling said. “Selling isn’t free; there [are] a lot of costs involved – including agent commissions. The higher the value of the mortgage, relative to the value of the home, odds increase the buyer will have to pay to sell. If they can’t afford to sell, the odds of seller default increases.”

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Vancouver, Calgary chop commercial property taxes

Frank O?Brien
Western Investor

What are the emerging trends for Canadian real estate in 2021?

Clayton Jarvis
Mortgage Broker News

Projections for 2020 went out the window by about the third week in February. What was supposed to be a year of restrained real estate sales and sluggish economic growth wound up generating both a full-on housing boom and a whiplash-inducing recession. The uncertainty of the past seven months makes projecting next year’s real estate activity a daunting challenge, but as 2021 draws near, any insight into what’s coming around the bend is sure to receive more than a passing glance from Canadian investors, realtors, and mortgage brokers.

PwC Canada and the Urban Land Institute recently teamed up to share their take on where Canadian real estate is headed in 2021. The groups’ Emerging Trends in Real Estate report, released on October 15, paints a picture of a housing market in which buyers, sellers, and developers have been forced to adjust to a plethora of destabilizing changes, from new short-term economic realities to market fundamentals that may be altered forever.

 “The coming year will be all about embracing opportunities to be resilient in the face of uncertainty, while shifting strategies in anticipation of market headwinds,” says Frank Magliocco, PwC Canada’s national real estate leader. “For the first time in a few years, we’re hearing divergent views from industry players about issues like the future of office spaces and the urbanization and suburbanization trends.”

Based on a collection of interviews and surveys with almost 3,000 commercial investors, real estate advisors, banks, and builders, the report, at 117 pages, is a rather gargantuan summation of the perceived trends shaping Canadian real estate. Here are a few of the most relevant highlights.

Residential real estate

There was little consensus around what might happen in the residential sector. Some respondents felt that urbanization could stall if remote work begins drawing people from densely populated and expensive cities to more affordable centres nearby. One Toronto developer reported having already adapted its strategy as a way of getting ahead of the urban exodus, resulting in looking “further afield” for development opportunities.

The urban exodus theory, however, is roundly contradicted by the fact that demand for low-rise homes in suburban locations has remained high throughout the pandemic. The report lists “18-hour cities” – vibrant metros that are international in flavour but not quite on the scale of Toronto – as being particularly attractive for homebuyers. Quebec City, Halifax, Waterloo, and London are provided as examples. Still, PwC expects housing activity to slow across Canada “at least for the next year.”

Concerns over condo prices were mostly confined to the GTA, but the softening currently affecting the city’s condo market is expected to be short-lived. Many interviewees were of the opinion that condo living itself might be in need of a rethink, as being cooped up in a 500-square-foot box has become a version of hell for people who spent much of the spring inside their units. 

“A number of features are being incorporated to make condos more attractive to buyers, such as videoconferencing rooms, dedicated areas for parcel and grocery deliveries, improved amenities and tools to create more connected communities,” reads the report.

When asked to rank their local markets on a scale of one to five across six different metrics, the top four were Toronto (with an average score of 4.23), Vancouver (4.22), Montreal (3.8), and Ottawa (3.56). The three lowest-ranked markets were Saskatoon (2.46), Halifax (2.58), and Calgary (2.61).

Commercial real estate

Somewhat unsurprisingly, warehousing and fulfillment was the commercial sub-sector tapped by most respondents as having the brightest prospects. The ubiquitousness of e-commerce was cited as a major factor, but those interviewed said that supply chain disruptions experienced by some companies during the pandemic have prompted them to keep more inventory on hand, leading to an increased need for storage space. Survey respondents gave the prospects of fulfillment spaces a ranking of 4.67 while those of warehouses received a 4.0.

Multifamily residential properties, particularly those for moderate income earners, are also expected to perform well in 2021. The report says demand may shift, “with renters and homebuyers looking to live in townhouses and mid-rise buildings rather than larger towers that have been the trend in urban centres in recent years”, but the higher rents associated with townhouses could keep many renters in this particular income range in place. Interviewees gave this asset class’s future a 3.79.

Medical office, which received a 3.75 from respondents, is another category expected to offer investors stability in 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a rise in the adoption of virtual health services but, as the report states, “there will be an ongoing need for physical space for care that can’t be delivered digitally as well as for diagnostic equipment.” One interviewee theorized that some healthcare facilities could take up unused space in high-traffic community locations like malls and smaller plazas.

Proptech

Considering the rapid evolution of real estate technologies over the past decade, it’s not as if the industry in Canada was in need of an innovation trigger, but COVID-19 gave the sector a hearty shove into the future. One respondent said property-related technology “has accelerated by a decade” during the pandemic.

The same business continuity solutions – videoconferencing, cloud technologies – that have kept real estate humming are expected to generate continued demand in 2021, as are those that support safe re-openings of office and retail properties.  

Continued growth is expected to be seen in technologies that encourage customer engagement and sales, such as virtual tours, voice-activated devices that can guide buyers through a home, and pre-sale tools that help buyers whittle down their lists of prospective properties to visit.

But it was construction tech that respondents said would be the most impactful disruptor in 2021.

“Many interviewees believe that modular construction solutions that address labour shortages have reached the point where they make more sense from a cost perspective and are seeing greater adoption as a result,” the report says, adding that construction companies are showing heightened interest in “digital twin technologies” that use sensor data to improve design and construction processes.

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Will the end of forbearance mean a wave of foreclosures?

Ryan Smith
other

Sherrod Brown doesn’t seem to have a lot of faith in Kathy Kraninger.

The Ohio Democrat and ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee has repeatedly accused the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau of putting corporations’ interests ahead of consumers and dropping the ball on mortgage relief awareness. He has also chastised her for reorganizing CFPB departments. Now Brown is calling on Kraninger to make sure the CFPB does more to prevent wrongful foreclosures in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In June, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimated that 4.3 million homeowners were in forbearance programs as a result of the economic impacts of the pandemic. Many of those homeowners have begun to exit forbearance or are nearing the end of the first 180-day forbearance period provided for borrowers with federally backed mortgages under the CARES Act. In a letter to Kraninger, Brown said that the end of forbearance could result in a wave of improper foreclosures.

“Some borrowers will be able to resume their regular payments by using the deferral or partial claim processes set up by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, or their private lender, in part because the [CFPB’s] June 2020 Interim Final Rule made changes in the servicing process to facilitate deferrals,” Brown wrote. “But other borrowers will be unable to resume their prior payments and will need more time to enter a modification with their servicer to make their payments more affordable.”

However, the mortgage modification process can take time, and Brown worried that during that time, servicers “may already be putting borrowers on track for foreclosure.”

“Under current rules, servicers can begin the foreclosure process when a borrower becomes 120 days delinquent,” Brown wrote. “While the CARES Act provides that servicers are not to report borrowers as delinquent to credit reporting agencies if the loan was current before entering forbearance, servicers and agencies backing federally-backed loans still consider borrowers delinquent for servicing purposes during forbearance under the CFPB’s servicing rules. As a result, at the end of the first 180-day forbearance period, a borrower could immediately be considered eligible for and a servicer could pursue foreclosure if the forbearance is not renewed.”

While servicers are required to reach out to borrowers prior to initiating foreclosure proceedings, “those timelines may be shorter than the 120-day period that typically precedes a foreclosure,” Brown wrote. “In addition, if a servicer begins foreclosure prior to satisfying those requirements, a homeowner cannot rely on those rules to delay the foreclosure and seek assistance.”

In addition, Brown said, the large number of borrowers servicers will need to contact within a short time frame may make it “difficult to ensure that outreach is timely, successful, and meets program requirements.”

“It is unlikely that borrowers will understand how quickly foreclosure could begin,” Brown said. “If servicers begin the foreclosure process before the borrower has an opportunity to either extend their forbearance or be evaluated for an appropriate modification, it could add unnecessary costs for borrowers, make it harder to complete a request for assistance, and risk triggering foreclosures that could threaten families’ and neighborhoods’ recovery from the pandemic.”

Brown asked Kraninger to arrange a staff briefing “to better understand what steps the CFPB will take to ensure that no borrower who is able to remain in their homes is improperly foreclosed upon or further financially burdened during this pandemic.”

 

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media Pty Ltd

BC home price gains are accelerating as supply remains tight

Sean MacKay
Livabl

It’s been a rollercoaster of a year for the BC housing market and the situation promises to keep both buyers and sellers on their toes for months to come.

After the housing market froze up through the spring, activity bounced back and then some, with sales in the summer and early fall more than making up for the earlier downturn.

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Sales are moving so fast that Central 1 Credit Union Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Yu wrote recently that new listings are being outpaced and the lack of inventory is leading to “blowout gains in home prices.”

In a recent research note, Yu said that the average home price across the province rose 13.5 percent to $816,843 in September. And, with low interest rates pushing buyers to act and listings on the decline since August, the economist believes further price increases are on the way.

Beyond pent-up demand from the mostly non-existent spring buying season and the low mortgage rate environment, Yu said that significant changes in buyer behaviour are driving what he called “staggeringly strong” home sales activity levels.

“The pandemic has severely restricted recreational activity and travel, while normalizing work-from-home,” wrote Yu.

“These additional savings, and demand for space have lifted sales for larger ground-oriented units, while some households have also chosen to relocate to suburban markets and smaller urban areas due to remote employment,” he continued.

The Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island regions were flagged as seeing the largest declines in new listings from August to September. Vancouver Island, Fraser Valley and central Okanagan were identified as having the tightest markets overall.

 

© 2020 BuzzBuzzHome Corp

B.C. construction workers miss job recovery

WI Staff
Western Investor

Is the CMHC’s forecast of a major price drop this year still relevant?

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s previous prediction of a 9-18% home price drop this year no longer applies, according to several economists in a new Finder survey.
The Crown corporation’s forecasts were criticized by Christopher Alexander, executive vice president and regional director of RE/MAX Integra’s Ontario-Atlantic Region, as misplaced “fear-mongering”.
“While I can appreciate some of the reasoning that went into CMHC’s prediction, especially in the spring when so much was still unknown, the market data doesn’t support such a steep price decline, especially with the two largest real estate markets of Toronto and Vancouver continuing their upward momentum,” Alexander said in early October. “The Prairies are facing different circumstances and challenges due to the resources sector, but Ontario and BC are expected to offset slower activity in Saskatchewan and Alberta.”
Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, also called the CMHC predictions “overly pessimistic” considering that Canada’s average home price went up by 1.5% in August.
Helmut Pastrick, chief economist at Central 1, echoed Cooper’s assessment, saying that prices are actually on the rise overall and that historically low mortgage rates will impel a more dynamic market, leading to further price growth.
Seven Finder respondents predicted an average increase of 3% over the next six months. However, while the larger market has exhibited resilience despite COVID-19, around 33% of respondents are still bracing for a modest decline in housing activity up to at least mid-2021.
“This reflects historic loss of income, job insecurity, virus fear and uncertainty, stricter CMHC lending rules, an effective pause on immigration, an exodus out of high-density urban markets, low tourist and foreign student demand for Airbnbs, and end of mortgage deferrals by banks,” said Tony Stillo, director of economics for Canada at Oxford Economics. “These factors may force many homeowners – particularly highly leveraged households and investors – to quickly sell their homes.”

Copyright © 2020 Key Media