Douglas Todd: How disastrous has the COVID19 pandemic been for Canadian housing?

Douglas Todd
The Vancouver Sun

Opinion: Ottawa’s war against the pandemic has had an outsized impact on millions of Canadians frozen out of home ownership. But politicians have proved oblivious

 Since the coronavirus hit house prices across Canada have jumped 34 per cent. jpg

Just how much of a disaster has COVID-19 been for housing affordability in Canada? Let us count the ways, if there is a stomach for it.

 

Since the pandemic began in March 2020 house prices across Canada have jumped 34 per cent.

The chasm between average household incomes and home values has grown far worse in Canada than in any other G7 country.

The “grim” reality is affordability is the worst in 31 years, according to RBC economist Robert Hogue. Metro Vancouver, on top of it, has the most out-of-reach properties: The cost of owning in the city now accounts for 64 per cent of residents’ median household income.

The average value of a dwelling in Canada has shot up to $780,000 (US$604,000). That compares to US$312,000 south of the border, which has been buffeted arguably worse by the coronavirus.

In other words, the war against COVID has not only scored a direct hit on restaurants, the cruise ship industry, the entertainment sector and airlines. It’s had an outsized impact on the millions of Canadians frozen out of home ownership. 

 

 

Courtesy of Vancouver real-estate analyst Steve Saretsky

Inflation has risen in most Western countries as Ottawa has heightened monetary stimulation (the printing of money) and handed out extremely low interest rates, to head off a slowdown. But our politicians have gone much further than most.

And that means, as Vancouver Island University real-estate prof. Mark Holland says, “Super-low interest rates are great fiscal policy for economic recovery in most sectors. In our real estate industry, however, (they are) steroids, speed, crack.”

About one in three Canadian adults, more than eight million people, don’t own their own homes. And a recent Ipsos poll found three of four who don’t own, but want to buy, say they can’t afford to. “The situation,” says Ipsos, “has developed into a tragedy for many prospective homeowners.”

 

Of course not everyone in Canada is struggling. Some, indeed, might be rubbing their palms in glee.

During the pandemic housing investors and speculators, both domestic and foreign, have been raking in the profits, at least on paper.

Investors, those who own more than one property, have swelled into the biggest buyer group of all in Toronto. Across the country they now account for one out of five owners.

In the city of Vancouver more than 34 per cent of all residential properties are not occupied by those who own them, while in the city of Toronto the rate is 25 per cent. Investors are especially obsessed with snapping up condo tower units, with some renting them out.

 

 

Real estate agent Karen Staddon keeps a social distance while showing a home to a client wearing a mask. Photo: Christinne Muschi, Reuters Photo by CHRISTINNE MUSCHI /REUTERS

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has mostly displayed obliviousness, even while home prices have gone up 81 per cent since he was elected six years ago.

While Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland produced campaign rhetoric for the September election about how housing should provide shelter for Canadians who live here and not serve as an investment vehicle for the global elite, their actual behaviour has been woefully passive.

The only promise to curb demand on which the Liberals have followed up is trivial. And Trudeau first made it in 2019. On Jan. 1 of next year Ottawa is going to usher in a national one-per cent tax on foreign buyers, piggybacking on those already in place for B.C. and Ontario’s larger cities.

 

As for Trudeau’s copycat campaign pledge to impose a two-year ban on all foreign buyers, first proposed by Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole, there has been nothing but vague verbiage from the latest of the Liberals’ rotating housing ministers, Ahmed Hussen.

There is no doubt urban Canadian housing is highly desirable to foreign investors. One in five newly built condos in the city of Vancouver were bought by non-Canadians. The rate expands to one in four in Richmond.

University of Waterloo international affairs specialist Bessma Momani, for instance, says too much of China’s investment in Canada has “gone into real estate as a way for Chinese elite to funnel money outside of the country.” But the pressure is coming from wealthy people everywhere.

 

More importantly, the Liberal Party’s promise to mildly tax buyers who don’t hold Canadian passports ignores a much larger prod for prices. Hussen has given no indication he understands the difference between “foreign buyers” and more significant “foreign capital,” much of which streams into Canadian housing through so-called “satellite families.”

That’s why the B.C. NDP pushed for the speculation and vacancy tax, which is aimed at purchases by households where most of the income is earned offshore, where it goes untaxed.

While interest rates, investment schemes and housing supply all impact prices, so does immigration. Even though immigration levels went down during COVID-19, investors were buoyed by Trudeau’s promise to return them to record highs of 400,000 per year, which has happened. Statistics Canada data shows an immigrant, on average, pumps more money into Canadian housing than the domestic born.

These Ottawa policies, which have produced excessive demand on housing, have been especially hard on new immigrants who don’t bring lots of money from their homelands, as well as Canadian-born residents who are young or putting up with the nation’s generally listless wages.

COVID-19 has been unprecedented. But so has the way the Liberals have exacerbated the calamity of housing affordability. While most nations have tempered the worst of the damage, our leaders have mostly tried to divert eyes away from the car crash and its many victims.

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@douglastodd

© 2022 Vancouver Sun

B.C. housing market cooling, but June prices up 22 per cent from 2020

Douglas Todd
The Vancouver Sun

The largest June year-to-year price increases were recorded by real estate boards in Vancouver Island, the Interior and the Fraser Valley.

 The B.C. real estate market is starting to normalize, said the B.C. Real Estate Association, which released June sales and listings figures for real estate boards across B.C. on Monday. Photo by Graeme Roy/THE CANADIAN PRESS

Home sales across B.C. are still seeing above-average activity, but it has began to normalize, according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA).

 

About 11,070 home sales were recorded on MLS in June, an increase of nearly 35 per cent compared to June last year.

But total home listings were down 23 per cent compared to last June.

“As expected, housing market activity is calming to start the second half of 2021,” said BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson in a statement. “That said, while down from record highs earlier this year, home sales across the province remain well above long-run average levels.”

The slow down in the real-estate market hasn’t cooled down prices, which saw a 22 per cent jump to $910,445 last month, compared to the $745,194 recorded in June 2020.

The largest year-to-year price increases were recorded by real-estate boards in Vancouver Island, the Interior and the Fraser Valley.

 

Powell River home prices soared nearly 36 per cent to $567,231, compared to last June’s $418,137 .

The Kamloops and District Real Estate Association and the Association of Interior Realtors recorded a nearly 29 per cent increase in residential prices, while in the Lower Mainland, Chilliwack and the Fraser Valley saw average home prices go up to $697,250 and $979,521 respectively — an approximately 25 per cent gain compared to the previous June.

Year-over-year listings for June dipped 23 per cent across the province.

At 2,726 units, the number of active residential listings in the Interior is nearly 48 per cent less than last year’s 5,212.

Listings in Vancouver Island also saw a 37 per cent drop in areas covered by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board, and nearly 50 per cent in Victoria, while Chilliwack and the Fraser Valley recorded decreases in listings of 39.5 per cent and 20 per cent respectively.

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© 2022 Vancouver Sun

BC Tree Fruits site in Kelowna sells for $23.7 million

WI Staff
Western Investor

The near-four-acre site is adjacent to the 40-acre Tolko mill site, which is also slated for future development in the north end of the city

Site covers 3.95 acres in the north end of Kelowna. | HM Commercial

The near-four-acre site is adjacent to the 40-acre Tolko mill site, which is also slated for future development in the north end of the city

A large piece of Kelowna, B.C.’s north end redevelopment puzzle has come into focus, after it was announced Mission Group has purchased the former BC Tree Fruits packinghouse adjacent to the former Tolko mill.

“We can confirm that subject conditions have been removed, and the selling price was $23.75 million,” says BC Tree Fruits CEO Warren Sarafinchan.

The 3.95-acre property at the corner of Ellis Street and Bay Avenue was listed April 1 for $20 million.

The property will be part of two redevelopment plans taking place concurrently, one looking at the overall north end, and the other specific to the Tolko site. Earlier this month, the city of Kelowna unveiled a proposal for the 40-acre Tolko site, which envisions park lands and a mix of commercial and real estate development on the lakefront parcel.

Mission Group says it has no immediate plans for the BC Tree Fruits lands but invited interim tenants to come forward.

The sale was brokered by HM Commercial Group, which is licensed with Macdonald Realty Kelowna.

© 2021 Western Investor

Dan Fumano: ‘Watershed moment’: Vancouver’s council allows more rental housing

Dan Fumano
The Vancouver Sun

Analysis: Decision an “important litmus test” on whether council is serious about rental housing, former chief planner Gil Kelley says

City of Vancouver illustrations showing four-storey apartment buildings beside single detached houses. Photo by City of Vancouver /PNG

In its final meeting of 2021, Vancouver council made what could be one of the most significant decisions of the current four-year term: approving moves to boost rental housing construction, including on many side streets where no apartments have gone before.

Although the decision was a long time coming and the proposed changes drew controversy including a threat of a legal challenge, in the end, the council votes were not close, with only a single councillor in opposition.

Council approved a series of moves Tuesday night aimed at encouraging construction of secure rental housing, including making it easier to build mixed-use rental buildings of up to six storeys on busy commercial streets, and, more controversially, considering four-storey apartment buildings, subject to case-by-case decisions from council, on side streets a block off some arterials.

Early in Tuesday’s meeting, Edna Cho, a senior housing planner with the city, outlined the timeline for council of the public engagement on these policies over the last two-and-a-half years.

Thousands of residents participated in workshops and surveys on this report, both in-person and virtual, Cho said. The level of public participation on this matter was “the highest in recent years,” Cho said, with council hearing from more than 100 speakers over three nights of public hearings last month, and receiving 1,082 pieces of correspondence, with about 60 per cent in favour of the changes.

“The discourse has been divided,” Cho said. “It’s a case of ‘far too much,’ versus ‘not nearly far enough.’”

That description seems apt. Development industry figures predicted there was unlikely to be significant uptake on these kinds of projects, saying it would be difficult to make rental projects in these locations financially viable, even with the extra density allowed.

Tenants and their advocates called the changes far too timid.

But others, mostly longtime homeowners, have been up in arms. In October, Postmedia News reported a west side resident was threatening legal action against city hall to prevent the changes, arguing the city had not done enough consultation. That citizens’ group’s lawyer, Peter Gall, said Tuesday afternoon before the council meeting that the group was still considering legal challenges, depending on what happened in that evening’s meeting.

The decision has both practical and symbolic importance, said Gil Kelley, who headed Vancouver’s city’s planning department from 2016 until his departure in March of this year .

In his first public comments since his departure from the City of Vancouver in March of this year, Kelley told this reporter that the changes, which city staff created under his management, would not solve the city’s housing problems, but could help the city catch up after decades of meagre levels of rental construction, while condo development boomed.

 

There was also symbolic significance, he said, to making changes in some side streets off arterials, low-density areas that have seen comparatively little change in decades.

“It’s not a big bite at the apple, but symbolically, I think it’s important to say there are areas, off the corridors, where a slight upscaling of density is actually appropriate,” Kelley said. “It’s symbolically important to say Vancouver’s low-density neighbourhoods have to get a bit more interesting, a bit more dense, a bit more vital.”

After the vote Tuersday night, Kelley said it was “an important litmus test for council: are they going to commit to building more rental and affordable housing in concept only? Or are they going to actually do it when the going gets tough?”

Mayor Kennedy Stewart struck a similar note in his comments to council before the final vote, calling it “a watershed moment.”

“This marks a clear moment when those who are serious about addressing the affordable housing crisis will vote yes,” Stewart said, with a possible preview of some messaging he might use in his re-election campaign next year. “Those who are not serious, those who are pretending to care, will vote no.”

Coun. Colleen Hardwick, a vocal critic of the city’s housing strategy who has generally advocated for slowing the pace of development, was the only councillor to vote in opposition to the various changes, predicting they would hurt and not help the city’s housing woes.

Earlier in the meeting, Hardwick tried to postpone decision on the entire matter, introducing a motion to refer the report back to staff “for further consultation.”

Hardwick, who was elected in 2018 with the Non-Partisan Association but quit the party earlier this year and plans to run in next year’s election with the upstart TEAM for a Livable Vancouver party, proposed to refer the matter into Vancouver’s city-wide plan, a multi-year project currently underway.

Her proposal was unpopular with most of her colleagues, many of whom pointed out that this specific report had already been deferred for more consultation in August 2020, a delay criticized by voices both inside council and outside.

Coun. Sarah Kirby-Yung, elected in 2018 alongside Hardwick with the NPA and now an independent, opposed her former party colleague’s attempt to delay the decision.

“Council should have the courage of their convictions,,” Kirby-Yung said. Work on the proposed changes had taken most of the current council’s four-year term to reach a decision point, she said, “and we are — and I think fairly, now — being criticized on not making movement on housing policy. Not everybody agrees on policy, but at some point, we have to make a decision and stand for something.”

OneCity Coun. Christine Boyle said: “If there are councillors who don’t want us to do this, then they should just vote against it and stop suggesting that more consultation will get the answer that they’re looking for on this.”

Punting the whole thing into the future, Boyle said, does not show “any kind of leadership on the issues we were elected to address.”

Hardwick’s referral motion failed, with only NPA Coun. Melissa De Genova supporting the effort to delay the decision, and every other council member opposing it.

As the final council meeting of the year wrapped up late Tuesday night, councillors wished each other happy holidays, and thanked staff for all their hard work during a challenging year.

After the meeting, city manager Paul Mochrie, who took over the top job in January 2021, said it has been a difficult time, with the city grappling with multiple crises and “nothing is getting any easier.”

Next year will be busy. Council will resume in January, and July will mark their final meetings before the October 2022 election. And between those dates, Mochrie said, “there’s a lot of business to do.”

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© 2021 Vancouver Sun

B.C. home sales smash annual record with one month remaining in 2021

Ryan Garner
Livabl

A flurry of home sales early in 2021, combined with unseasonably high autumn transactions, has produced record-setting annual totals in British Columbia.

According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), a total of 9,159 residential unit sales were recorded over the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) system in November, a decrease of 3.4 per cent year-over-year.

However, those figures were enough to push B.C.’s year-to-date total to 117,965 units, up 37.7 per cent from the 85,670 recorded at this time last year and besting the province’s previous record set in 2016.

“Provincial MLS home sales reached a new annual record in November with still one month to go in 2021,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said in a press release. “Home sales have already surpassed the previous annual record of 112,425 units set in 2016.”

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The increased sales activity has produced bidding wars and elevated prices across the province. Year-to-date, B.C. residential sales dollar volume sits at $108.7 billion, up 63.6 per cent compared to the same period in 2020 ($66.4 billion), while the average residential price has increased 18.8 per cent to $921,806.

While transaction totals continue to rise, low inventory has also set records, with active listings falling to 16,459, well off the 27,057 recorded at this time last year.

“Total active residential listings continued to tumbler lower, falling 39 per cent year-over-year to a record low for the province,” the BCREA noted. “Active listings are now about half of the level reached prior to the pandemic.”

B.C.’s average MLS residential price was $993,922 in November, a 22.1 per cent increase from $814,310 recorded in November 2020. Total sales dollar volume for the month topped $9.1 billion, a 17.9 per cent increase from the same time last year.

Greater Vancouver continues to have the province’s most expensive real estate, with the average home price exceeding $1.24 million, up 14.6 per cent from November 2020, although the price gap between outlying areas is shrinking.

According to the BCREA, the average home price in the Fraser Valley has topped $1.1 million, a year-over-year increase of 21.8 per cent, while Victoria recorded an average of $987,970 in November, up 23 per cent from a year ago.

© 2020 BuzzBuzzHome Corp.

Economic recovery represents opportunity for ‘great Canadian restart’: RBC report

Bianca Bharti
other

Cynthia Leach’s report offers a path that policy-makers could take if they want to boost Canada’s potential growth rate

Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland speaks at a news conference in Ottawa, Nov. 24, 2021. Photo by Blair Gable/Reuters files

The COVID-19 pandemic caused one of the worst recessions in history, but the recovery represents an opportunity for a “great Canadian restart,” Royal Bank of Canada’s economic research department argues in a new report .

“It’s a natural moment now for policy-makers coming out of the pandemic … to look beyond recovery to re-evaluate the policy framework and what Canada is aiming to achieve in the context of this new shifting global economy,” Cynthia Leach, the report’s author, said in an interview.

Canada’s economy averaged annual growth of 2.1 per cent between 2010 and 2019, about the same as the previous decade, but down from an average of 2.4 per cent between 2000 and 2009, according to Statistics Canada data. The slowdown reflects an ageing population, but also lacklustre business investment and productivity growth, which have hobbled the country’s ability to generate wealth from a shrinking pool of workers.

The pandemic might have made things worse. In October, the Bank of Canada cut its estimate of “potential” growth – the rate at which it thinks the economy can expand without generating excessive inflation – to 1.6 per cent because the recession took such a heavy toll on investment. That’s why policy-makers such as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who is scheduled to release an economic update on Dec. 14, should prioritize spending that will bolster the country’s economic capacity over the longer term, said Leach.

Before their re-election in September, the Liberals unveiled a hefty federal budget that allocated more than $100 billion in spending to guide the economic recovery. However, critics, including David Dodge, the former Bank of Canada governor, said too little of the spending was directed at initiatives that would make the economy more competitive. Instead, Freeland focused on redistribution, expanding the deficit to bolster COVID emergency benefits and fund various pet projects that will have little impact on the trajectory of the economy.

Leach’s report offers a path that policy-makers could take if they want to boost the country’s potential growth rate. Leach selected six “pillars” for a growth-oriented policy agenda, including an approach to innovation that favours firms that have a realistic opportunity to scale.

Despite “above average” government support in recent years, Canadian businesses consistently invest less in research and development than their international peers, suggesting current approaches to industrial policy need to be rethought, the report said. The transition to a green economy is an obvious place to focus, and Canada could become a leader if governments concentrated their spending on programs that reduce carbon emissions, as well as clarify their climate policies so regulatory uncertainty doesn’t act as a barrier to investment, the report said.

Another pillar is the digital economy. Data assets are becoming more important as services move online. Canada should forge trade agreements that address barriers to international trade in digital services, and it should guard against homegrown intellectual property being vacuumed up by international technology behemoths, the report said.

Taxes play an important role in competitiveness, yet the federal government hasn’t reviewed tax policy since 1967. Leach called on Parliament to conduct a new review, with a focus on reducing breaks for special interests so personal rates could be lowered to make Canada more attractive to international talent.

“It’s not going to be easy,” Leach said. “We’re going to have to get a bunch of things right.”

• Email: [email protected] | Twitter: biancabharti

© 2021 Financial Post

B.C. reaches forfeiture agreement in alleged $220-million-a-year money laundering scheme

Gordon Hoekstra
The Vancouver Sun

The province will keep more than $1.2 million in money, casino chips, gift cards and personal property, including jewelry, all of which was seized in a 2015 police raid.

The house once owned by Caixuan Qin on Burquitlam Drive in south Vancouver. Photo by Gerry Kahrmann /PNG

The province has reached a deal with one of the accused at the centre of B.C.’s biggest money laundering case that will put more than $1 million into B.C.’s coffers.

The agreement with Caixuan Qin, who is accused of helping to run an underground bank in Richmond that allegedly laundered as much as $220 million a year, is outlined in a “consent order” signed by both parties filed in B.C. Supreme Court on Nov. 30.

The province will keep more than $1.2 million in money, casino chips, gift cards and personal property, including jewelry, all of which was seized in a 2015 police raid. The province will also keep a little less than half of the proceeds of $192,725 from the sale of a home that had been owned by Qin in Vancouver.

Qin will keep the remaining portion of the proceeds of the heavily mortgaged south Vancouver home that was sold for $1.88 million.

The consent order states the money to the province will be paid to the Ministry of Finance.

“The action is otherwise dismissed,” says the order.

The B.C. Civil Forfeiture Office launched the case in 2018 to have the assets forfeited after a criminal case against Qin and her spouse Jian Jun Zhu was dropped. Zhu was shot and killed in 2020. 

Caixuan Qin. PNG

In 2018, Qin and Zhu were accused of operating an underground bank in Richmond, named Silver International, that allegedly laundered as much as $220 million a year, largely in drug trafficking money, according to earlier court filings.

The pair had denied any wrongdoing and said that search and seizures by police violated their Charter rights.

More than $2 million in cash was seized by police in the 2015 raids, which included warranted searches at the underground bank in Richmond, as well as at Qin’s residence in south Vancouver.

The cash was going to be returned to Qin and Zhu following a court ruling in the wake of the collapse of the criminal case, but a 2019 B.C. Court of Appeal decision overturned the lower court decision.

It meant the money continued to be held under a freeze order pending the outcome of the civil forfeiture case.

It is not clear what has happened to the remaining $800,000 or so that was seized during the raid.

The B.C. Ministry of Public Safety, which has responsibility for the civil forfeiture office, directed questions about what happened to the remainder of the money to the Canada Revenue Agency. The provincial officials did not provide any explanation as to what interest or connection the CRA had to the money. The CRA was not a party in the B.C. civil forfeiture suit.

 Jian Jun Zhu. Photo by TBA /PNG

The CRA did not immediately respond Tuesday afternoon to questions about the approximately $800,000 in remaining cash.

In 2019, Qin had l aunched a federal court challenge to quash a CRA order for six banks to produce financial information.

Qin initiated the court action in relation to an investigation into potential criminal tax offences committed by herself and others linked to Silver International, according to the Federal Court of Canada filing.

Zhu was killed on Sept. 18, 2020 in a brazen shooting while he dined at a Richmond restaurant with Paul King Jin, also an alleged money launderer. Jin was injured in the targeted shooting but survived.

A 23-year-old man was recently charged in the killing of Zhu.

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© 2021 Vancouver Sun

Where have the homes gone?

Keith Stewart
REBGV

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s (REBGV) latest economic analysis takes a deeper look at housing supply trends in Metro Vancouver and the ratio of buyers to sellers that have been active in the market throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Metro Vancouver’s real estate market has seen heightened, and in some cases record-breaking, sales activity throughout much of this period. On the supply side, home listings have struggled to keep pace, causing inventory levels to reach lows not seen in years.

In this new report, REBGV Economist Keith Stewart assesses housing supply levels in Metro Vancouver and the factors affecting it during the pandemic. 

“After a brief lull in market activity in the early months of the pandemic as both sellers and buyers left the market, sales have been running above long-term averages due to a steep rise in demand. Prices have increased because supply (number of sellers) hasn’t kept pace.”

Keith Stewart, REBGV economist

In 2021, the market moved into a diverging pattern of rising demand and decreasing supply, placing renewed upward pressure on prices.

The ratio of buyers to sellers in the region peaked at 1.5 in March 2021 and remains elevated.

Current lows in housing inventory are, in part, a consequence of rising demand.

Despite high sales, many detached and attached sub-markets continue to see multiple buyers searching for homes compared to sellers.

COVID-19 has highlighted the challenge of crafting policies that help supply keep pace when demand rises. All levels of government can help by supporting policies that encourage supply creation.

© 2021 REBGV

Canada’s red-hot housing market to lose steam in 2022, but affordability will only worsen

Swathi Nair
other

Analysts expect home price gains to slow significantly next year amid higher interest rates or tighter monetary policy

Canada’s double-digit house price inflation will lose steam next year, but affordability is still almost certain to worsen in one of the world’s hottest property markets, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.

A rush to purchase homes ahead of expected increases in Canadian interest rates next year is boosting the housing market in the final quarter, with prices skyrocketing 18.2 per cent in October compared to the year-earlier period.

Extra froth in the market, driven by investors fuelling perceptions that prices will keep rising, has prompted the Bank of Canada to recently warn of an increased risk of a correction.

“Affordability is unlikely to improve next year as prices should march higher, even as interest rates creep upwards as well,” said Rishi Sondhi, economist at TD Economics, who expects house price inflation to slow considerably next year.

“We think rate hikes will weigh on, but not upend, demand, as the macro backdrop should remain supportive for sales.”

Average house prices in Canada are expected to rise 18.6 per cent this year, up from a 16.0 per cent rise predicted in an August poll.

But those increases were forecast to slow significantly, to 5.0 per cent in 2022 and 2.0 per cent in 2023, according to the poll of 15 market analysts which was conducted from Nov. 17 to Dec. 6 and released on Tuesday. That compared to rises of 3.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively, in the August poll.

Only two respondents expected prices to fall in 2023, and by modest amounts.

Asked what would have the biggest impact on house prices next year, nine of 14 respondents said higher interest rates or tighter monetary policy. The remaining five cited supply constraints.

A follow-up question on how many basis points of interest rate hikes would significantly slow housing market activity had a median forecast of 100, with predictions in a range of 75 to 175 basis points.

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Canada’s central bank is expected to start raising interest rates by the end of the third quarter next year.

“One or two rate increases is unlikely to have a meaningful impact, but if we see four or more rate increases in 2022, this should take some demand out of the market, especially from interest rate-sensitive investors,” said John Pasalis, president of brokerage and research firm Realosophy Realty.

For many first-time home buyers, prices have climbed beyond their reach and a supply shortage of housing units has only aggravated their woes.

“Investors, house ‘flippers,’ and speculators, who according to the Bank of Canada account for over 20 per cent of home purchases, have aggravated the severe demand-supply imbalance, boosted prices even higher and made housing more vulnerable to a correction,” said Tony Stillo, director of economics for Canada at Oxford Economics.

All 15 analysts who answered a question about affordability over the next two to three years said it would worsen.

“Out-of-reach housing prices will invariably lead more Canadians to rentals, especially if they have to live close to where they work. However, people who can work remotely will continue to migrate out of more expensive urban centres and ‘drive until they qualify,’” Stillo said. Thomson Reuters 2021

© 2021 Financial Post

Douglas Todd: Is Canada’s central bank afraid of reining in the housing monster?

Douglas Todd
The Vancouver Sun

Opinion: Is it nervous about igniting a recession by tackling a business it considers too big to fail?

“The central bank makes threats. But it does not act,” says SFU Prof. John Richards. Photo by Chris Wattie /REUTERS

Canada’s housing sector has become an out-sized behemoth in the country’s economy — and during the pandemic its power has only grown more distorted, with investors now accounting for one in five Canadian buyers and an even higher percentage in Toronto and Vancouver.

As house prices and inflation continue to soar, Canada’s central bank appears wary of reining in the bloated housing industry with higher interest rates. Is it nervous about igniting a recession by tackling a business it considers too big to fail?

Simon Fraser University public policy professor John Richards believes the Bank of Canada and the federal finance department are “paralyzed” by a fear of setting off this country’s own version of the recession of 2008, which was sparked by U.S. speculators taking out ridiculously risky mortgages.

The Bank of Canada and politicians in Ottawa “could halt the speculative frenzy, raise interest rates, tighten mortgage rules, impose capital gains tax on flips,” Richards said. “However, such policies might cause a recession. Hence, the central bank makes threats. But it does not act.”

No matter how you measure it, the signs are everywhere that the central bank’s overnight lending rate of a meagre 0.25 per cent has contributed to the housing industry expanding out of control in this country, where the economy, profit-taking banks and jobs are more dependent on it than almost anywhere. 

“The central bank makes threats. But it does not act,” says SFU Prof. John Richards. Photo by Chris Wattie /REUTERS

Canadian residential real estate was worth $6.1 trillion in 2020. That means the value of Canada’s detached homes and condominium towers is now 300 per cent greater than the country’s Gross Domestic Product, says Canadian housing analyst Stephen Punwasi . In contrast, U.S. housing is worth 170 per cent of its GDP. Punwasi rightfully calls Canada’s situation “mind-blowing.”

With a frenzy of domestic and offshore investors entering Canada’s housing market up to and during COVID-19, Swiss investment bank UBS says Greater Toronto now has the world’s second-most vulnerable housing bubble . Metro Vancouver’s bubble is sixth worst.

Canadians now invest more in homes than businesses. A staggering $248 billion was pumped into Canadian residential real estate in just the first three months of this year, says Punwasi. That was a jump of 42 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier. Eager speculators assume house values will keep rising.

Overall inflation in Canada is now running at 4.7 per cent a year, the highest in almost two decades. Canadian house-price inflation is more exaggerated — in October, values were flying 18 per cent above a year earlier.

A recent Ipsos poll found four of five Canadians say affordability is their top concern. Çanadians are “having difficulty paying for very expensive real estate in our major cities and are also struggling with even starting and raising families, things that people used to take for granted,” says Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.

Should the housing investment bubble burst, it could be devastating for some investors and parts of the economy, especially in B.C.

This province has only 13 per cent of the country’s population, but Punwasi says it accounts for 24 per cent of the value of the entire country’s housing stock. 

Bank of Canada deputy governor Paul Beaudry last week expressed concern about the way investors have flooded into housing. “That can expose the market to a higher chance of a correction,” he said. “And, if one occurs, the damage can spread far beyond the investors.”

But, as Vancouver housing market analyst Steve Saretsky says, the Bank of Canada is not taking responsibility for the way it has encouraged people during the pandemic to pour money into housing by setting extremely low interest rates and, through a process known as quantitative easing, has effectively been printing $5 billion worth of new money each week, to head off a slowdown. The bank has finally said it intends to stop doing so.

Developers and most politicians say the answer to the housing crisis is to build more housing supply. But reflecting on the measures the Bank of Canada and various governments, particularly more-imaginative B.C., have brought in to try to make homes more affordable, Saretsky said this week, “We’ve now tried a foreign buyers tax, empty homes tax, speculation tax, mortgage stress test, record new home completions, and yet house prices continue to push higher. We’ve tried everything but raise the cost of borrowing money. Imagine that.”

It’s not as if nudging up interest rates is a new idea for puncturing excessive exuberance. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently admitted its chronically low rates were a prime factor in driving up the country’s housing prices, since they offer customers big mortgages at low payment schedules.

Even slight interest-rate hikes have made a big difference in Canadian housing. “Remember in 2018, mortgage rates hit 3.5 per cent and everyone thought they were going to four per cent? What happened that year?” Saretsky asks.

“Home sales in Greater Vancouver fell to an 18-year low. And in the Greater Toronto area, home sales fell to their lowest total in a decade. Not surprising that two highly levered housing markets slumped as borrowing costs ramped up.”

With the Bank of Canada now at least hinting it is concerned about housing affordability and inflationary interest rates, there have been recent signs some housing investors might be tempering their mania. Meanwhile, house prices have remained stubbornly out of reach of most city wage earners for a long time.

The economic maneuvering continues, as we wait to see if the Bank of Canada will dare an actual hike.

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