Archive for March, 2022

National home price spiked by 28% annually in January | CREA

Thursday, March 31st, 2022

BMO: Price growth might hit a stopping point soon

Ephraim Vecina
other

Frothy supply-demand dynamics will eventually hit the wall, analyst says

 The current policy environment is likely to fulfill the conditions that could herald a crash in Canadian home price growth, according to a new analysis by BMO.

Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said that a “real fundamental strength” is impelling home prices, further exacerbated by “quite a bit of froth” on top of the existing supply-demand dynamics.

Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association indicated that the national home price spiked by 28% annually in January.

Additionally, ever-increasing mortgage rates have spurred various federal and provincial-level interventions, the latest of which were this week’s announcements of a stricter tax regime for non-resident homebuyers in Ontario and a 2% tax on foreign home buyers that was outlined in Nova Scotia’s budget.

Read more: Analysis: Expected BoC hikes to put home price growth in reverse

Fixed-rate mortgage offerings have become more expensive recently, with the yield on five-year Government of Canada bonds reaching almost 2.5% over the last week, versus the 1.25% level as of the end of 2021.

Kavcic said that the cumulative impact of these trends cannot be overstated.

“There is now a full-scale attack on Canadian home prices across various levels of policy,” Kavcic wrote in a client note.

“Five-year fixed [mortgage] rates are already around 4%, and variable rates should be well into 3% territory by early summer. This market was feasting on low-1% rates through the pandemic. No longer.”

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Commercial Edge data report lower mainland highest sales in 2021

Thursday, March 31st, 2022

Commercial real estate sales topped $14 billion in 2021

Western Investor Staff
Western Investor

Lower Mainland transactions reached the second-highest level in history – and land buys accounted for nearly half the sales volume

 Larco Investments paid the City of Burnaby $136 million for a 17-acre vacant industrial site on Marine Way in December 2021. | City of Burnaby

Led by land sales and defying a global pandemic, commercial real estate sales in B.C.’s Lower Mainland reached $14.39 billion in 2021 and posted the second-highest sales in history, according to the Commercial Edge report from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

There were 2,659 commercial real estate sales in 2021, a 65.3 per cent increase from the 1,609 sales in 2020, according to the REBGV data. Last year’s sales total is the second only to 2016 when 2,848 sales were recorded.

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was up 66.7 per cent from $8.63 billion in 2020.

“Like residential consumers, businesses and investors became more comfortable operating in the commercial market in the second year of the pandemic,” Daniel John, REBGV chairman said. “We saw consistent increases among the different commercial property types both in sales volumes and dollar figures last year.”

The Commercial Edge data includes all commercial real estate transactions in the Lower Mainland region that have been registered with the Land Title and Survey Authority of British Columbia.

2021 activity by category:

Land: There were 781 commercial land sales in 2021, which is an 86.8 per cent increase from the 418 land sales in 2020. The dollar value of land sales was $7.28 billion in 2021, a 73.6 per cent increase from $4.19 billion in 2020.

Office and retail: There were 1,041 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in 2021, which is up 74.1 per cent from the 598 sales in 2020. The dollar value of office and retail sales was $3.13 billion in 2021, a 77 per cent increase from $1.77 billion in 2020.

Industrial: There were 712 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2021, which is a 36.9 per cent increase from the 520 sales in 2020. The dollar value of industrial sales was $2.39 billion in 2021, a 61.1 per cent increase from $1.48 billion in 2020.

Multi-family: There were 125 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2021, which is up 71.2 per cent from 73 sales in 2020. The dollar value of multi-family sales was $1.58 billion in 2021, a 33.9 per cent increase from $1.18 billion in 2020.

 

© 2022 Western Investor

Metro Vancouver land unavailability could lead to more volatile rents | Analysts

Thursday, March 31st, 2022

Lack of land has price of renting industrial land rising almost weekly in Metro Vancouver

Joanne Lee-Young
The Vancouver Sun

Even at the fringes of Metro Vancouver, demand for industrial space is hot and averages prices have hit a record high

This automobile showroom property on a 19,500-square-foot lot on West 5th Avenue in Vancouver sold recently for over $25 million. Photo by Francis Georgian /PNG

Lack of industrial land and soaring prices are leading to more volatile rents that are spreading to the edges of Metro Vancouver, analysts say.

Some industrial landlords are no longer posting asking rents and instead are renting to the highest bidder. Others don’t want to lock in a rate for a longer term.

Some developers of industrial strata units are selling units more slowly, believing if they hold back some units, they will get higher prices for them later.

What might all this mean for local businesses and consumers?

“I think it is pretty much universally a bad thing, unless you are a real estate developer or owner of real estate,” said Michael Farrell, a principal at Avison Young who specializes in industrial property.

“But I think even some of those groups might be willing to admit that some of the price gains are maybe unhealthy or at least unsustainable.”

While landlords used to set average asking rents based on semi-annual or quarterly numbers, there is so much demand for such tight supply that some are now able to raise rents based on each new leasing deal in the market.

Companies are eager to lock-in a rental rate before prices rise more. Meanwhile, developers or investors, seeing the potential to get higher rents, are paying more to buy and develop industrial properties into strata units they can sell or lease, especially in a lower interest rate environment.

“You could say we’re literally pricing strata units on a week-to-week basis so, in a sense, real estate in Greater Vancouver on the industrial side has become a commodity,” said Chris Morrison, a Vancouver-based executive vice president of industrial at Colliers International, which this week released a national snapshot with some of these details.

The average rental asking rate for industrial properties in Greater Vancouver reached a new high in the first quarter of 2022 at $16.93 a square foot, according to Colliers.

For years, the vacancy rate for industrial space in Metro Vancouver had hovered between one and two per cent, but in the second quarter of 2021, it dropped to 0.5 per cent and is now at 0.4 per cent.

For one building that Morrison was leasing in Surrey, the asking rental rate per square foot increased by over seven per cent from six weeks ago to today.

“I wouldn’t say (rates are changing) every week, but you have to check every week to make sure that the prices previously stated are still in effect,” said Farrell of Avison Young.

Steve Brooke, senior vice-president at CBRE, said one result is that while properties closer to the city core, such as in Richmond and Burnaby, used to command higher rates, there is no longer a discount for properties, such as in Surrey and Langley, that are farther away.

In February, developer Beedie beat 14 other bidders to buy a 22-acre vacant industrial site in Delta for $117 million, according to Brooke, who was involved with the deal.

“It’s a very exciting time for industrial owners and the asset class is very popular right now,” said Mark Goodman of Goodman Commercial Inc.

His company is better known for multi-family deals, but it recently sold an automobile showroom property on a 19,500-square-foot lot on West 5th Avenue in Vancouver for over $25 million.

“We actually went out with an unpriced listing and had over 80 inquiries over a two-week whirlwind, from major developers, owner users and other car dealership owners.”

Brooke of CBRE thinks these prices may just be moving to “be more on par with other global markets such as Seattle and Oakland.”

Some companies had been taking more industrial space in Calgary than they would otherwise because they can’t get the space they need in Vancouver, said Farrell of Avison Young.

But then last winter, “every single highway and railway between us and Calgary got ripped out by a single rain event. All of a sudden, the idea of having a bunch of commodities and consumer goods that supply the Metro Vancouver market, across (several) mountain ranges seems like a bad idea.”

[email protected]

 

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New residential development applications that would bring additional housing to Vancouver

Thursday, March 31st, 2022

City of Vancouver makes headway on new development application backlog

Michelle McNally
Livabl

More homes could be reviewed, approved and built soon as the City of Vancouver makes its way through a glut of new residential development applications that would bring additional housing to the city.
This week, Vancouver said that the City Manager’s Permitting Task Force has cleared an intake backlog of more than 500 development applications for new single-family properties, duplexes, and laneway homes. Staff have also reduced wait times for permits and licences, and been implementing City Council priorities and Task Force recommendations which have resulted in faster processing times, the City stated in a press release.
Of the 500 applications, 450 are now being processed. The remaining 50 are with the applicants to provide more information.
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“We know businesses and residents expect our support with post pandemic economic recovery, and we are excited to see that all the permit improvements we have made are having a positive impact,” said Andrea Law, the City of Vancouver’s general manager of development, buildings and licensing. “We remain committed to improving our permitting and licensing programs through open and transparent collaboration with industry partners and stakeholders.”
In March 2021, Vancouver City Council acknowledged that the improvement of wait times and clearing the application backlog was a priority. The City Manager’s Task Force was established with $1 million in funding. Actions that have been made to date are expected to save up to 13,800 weeks of processing, the City says.
Through the use of improved processes and tools, the City of Vancouver stated that review time for each single-family, duplex, and laneway application has shrunk by about 75 per cent. As a result, there has been a 300 per cent increase in the number of applications processed.
Applicants are now contacted within two to three business days from their application submission, which is 15 to 16 weeks faster than before. Laneway applications specifically are receiving initial review three months faster, while permits for simple renovations are being delivered as soon as two weeks compared to seven weeks.
The City Manager’s Task Force will continue to review opportunities to reduce processing times, Vancouver says, and there are ongoing consultations with industry stakeholders to discuss and identify more opportunities to improve processes and wait times. The next update and set of recommendations will be brought to Council later this year.
An online enquiry and application page will be launched this spring for businesses who require a change in use or occupancy.

© 2020 BuzzBuzzHome Corp.

1.2 acres office in Calgary sells for $367 per square foot

Thursday, March 31st, 2022

Calgary 50,000-square-foot office building sells for $18.35 million

Calgary Municipal Land Corp.
Western Investor

New downtown building on 1.2 acres is known as the Platform Innovation Centre & Parkade, and the buyer will occupy the office space.

Calgary Municipal Land Corp., Calgary, for Western Investor

 

Property type: Office

Location: 309 9th Avenue SE, Calgary

Size of property: 50,000 square feet

Parking stalls: 508

Zoning: Downtown commercial

Sale price: $18.35 million

Price per square foot: $367

Date of sale: February 1, 2022

Seller: Calgary Municipal Land Corp.,Calgary

Buyer: Calgary Technologies Inc., Calgary

 

© 2022 Western Investor

Lower Mainland’s commercial real estate market reached the second-highest annual total on record in 2021

Thursday, March 31st, 2022

Commercial real estate sales heightened in 2021

REBGV Staff
other

Sales activity in the Lower Mainland’s commercial real estate market reached the second-highest annual total on record in 2021.

There were 2,659 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in 2021, a 65.3 per cent increase from the 1,609 sales in 2020, according to data from Commercial Edge, a commercial real estate system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

Last year’s sales total is the second highest on record behind 2016 when 2,848 sales were recorded.

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was $14.396 billion in 2021, a 66.7 per cent increase from $8.635 billion in 2020.

Land

There were 781 commercial land sales in 2021, which is an 86.8 per cent increase from the 418 land sales in 2020. The dollar value of land sales was $7.28 billion in 2021, a 73.6 per cent increase from $4.193 billion in 2020.

Office and Retail

There were 1,041 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in 2021, which is up 74.1 per cent from the 598 sales in 2020. The dollar value of office and retail sales was $3.136 billion in 2021, a 77 per cent increase from $1.772 billion in 2020.

Industrial

There were 712 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2021, which is a 36.9 per cent increase from the 520 sales in 2020. The dollar value of industrial sales was $2.394 billion in 2021, a 61.1 per cent increase from $1.486 billion in 2020.

Multi-Family

There were 125 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2021, which is up 71.2 per cent from 73 sales in 2020. The dollar value of multi-family sales was $1.586 billion in 2021, a 33.9 per cent increase from $1.184 billion in 2020.

 

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Is it worth to buy property during pandemic?

Wednesday, March 30th, 2022

Investors buy and build hotels as B.C.’s COVID-19 restrictions lift

Glen Korstom
Western Investor

Province had more hotel transactions in 2021 than any other year in the past decade, with 39 deals valued at more than $1 million each

The former and now closed Trump International Hotel on West Georgia Street is among the Vancouver hotel properties in play. | Chung Chow

Hotel real estate investors are moving ahead with plans to buy and develop B.C. properties as they anticipate more people travelling for leisure and for business.

With severe cases of COVID-19 on the decline, governments are removing travel restrictions and helping the hospitality sector recover from its biggest business decline in decades, if not ever.

Cadillac Fairview Corp. Ltd. is one property owner eager to expand hotel operations. 

It recently filed a development permit application with the City of Vancouver to build a luxury hotel at the corner of Howe and West Georgia streets, where the Four Seasons Hotel operated for more than 40 years until closing in early 2020.

Cadillac Fairview senior vice-president Tom Knoepfel told Business in Vancouver (BIV) that his company plans to own the hotel and contract a hotel brand to manage it.

The other empty marquee luxury hotel site in downtown Vancouver is at 1161 Georgia St. W., where the Trump International Hotel and Tower previously operated.

Owner Holborn Group’s CEO, Joo Kim Tiah, told BIV his company is not yet ready to provide information on that site’s future.

Toward the end of the pandemic, there was a surge in investor interest to buy hotels in B.C.

Colliers International data show 39 hotel real estate transactions valued at more than $1 million in 2021. That is the highest number of those deals in at least a decade. 

Some owners wanted to exit the sector because it was in such a deep downturn, while other investors could see foresee a sector rebound, according to Russell Beaudry, senior director for hotels at Colliers International.

“In the year preceding the global pandemic, hotel owners had little reason to sell, since operating performance was so robust,” he told BIV.

Buyers for those hotels in 2021 spent about $453 million, which was the second-highest total in the past decade.

The only recent year investors spent more to buy hotels in B.C. was 2015, when buyers spent $759 million. That year was an anomaly because several large hotels – the Westin Bayshore, the Westin Grand and the Fairmont Hotel Vancouver – changed hands.

Beaudry expects heightened demand for hotel real estate to continue, and for developers to move ahead with building new supply.

Peterson Group and Coromandel Properties Ltd. announced March 8 that they spent an undisclosed amount to buy from Wall Financial Corp. a mixed-use project on three-quarters of an acre next to Oakridge Centre.

Peterson senior vice-president David Evans told BIV that the transaction value was less than $85 million, and that the hotel component of the project is about 40 per cent of the development, which also has a residential tower and retail space.

The site has been rezoned, but the new owners need to go through the development-permit process.

“We’re believers in the hospitality business,” Evans said. 

Peterson is a part owner of the Shangri-La hotels in Vancouver and Toronto, the Fairmont Pacific Rim hotel in Vancouver, and the Carmana Plaza extended-stay hotel in Vancouver.

Another Peterson hotel project, at Metropolis at Metrotown, is in the early planning phases, Evans said.

“Peterson has a large real estate holding,” he said. “We have all different types of properties and hospitality is a core component.”

He said Peterson is “opportunistic” in its approach to acquiring real estate, and that adding more hotels to its portfolio is possible. 

In addition to development companies working through the process to build new hotels, governments are buying hotels to convert into social housing, and investment companies are buying hotels to convert into condominium towers. 

The B.C. government has bought hotels and converted them into social housing since at least the 1990s, but BC Housing was particularly active in 2021.

Its biggest deal was to spend $63.8 million for the Patricia Hotel at 403 Hastings St. E. and a nearby parking lot. Some other purchases included $4.9 million for a hotel at 956 Main St. and $6.8 million for one at 1012 Main St.

The Crown corporation also purchased the Vancouver Central Hostel at 1025 Granville St. and the Ramada Inn at 435 Pender St. W.

Developers have also been eyeing hotel sites for their redevelopment potential.

Capital (Canada) Trading Co. recently sold its iconic 1954-built City Centre Motor Hotel at 2111 Main St. to Nicola Wealth.

No one at Nicola Wealth was available to confirm plans for the site, but real estate watchers expect the company to redevelop the site with condominiums.

“They do have a development plan – that’s for sure,” Beaudry said. “It won’t be a hotel.”

Onni Group is another developer excited about the hospitality sector. It developed a 40-storey tower at 1335 Howe St. that boasts a 110-suite extended stay hotel known as Level Vancouver Downtown-Howe, which opened in February.

Onni has two other Level-branded hotels that have extended stay units: a 133-unit one at 1388 Richards St., and a 188-unit one at 1022 Seymour St. 

Of those Seymour Street units, 20 are zoned to also allow nightly stays, and Onni is aiming to have the City of Vancouver rezone the entire property to allow single-night stays, according to Onni chief of staff Duncan Wlodarczak.

Onni also envisions building a new hotel next to the future Great Northern Way-Emily Carr station along the Broadway Subway, and Wlodarczak said his company is awaiting clarity from the city on guidelines for what exactly can be built on the site. •

© 2022 Western Investor

How BC can solve the wicked problem of housing affordability

Wednesday, March 30th, 2022

Is housing supply keeping up with demand? Municipalities disagree with Housing Minister David Eby

REBGV Staff
other

 At a glance

Housing Minister David Eby believes red tape at the municipal level is restricting new housing supply. The municipalities disagree.

  • The Union of BC Municipalities recently released a report they believe shows the issue lies in other areas, like supply chain limitations, provincial approvals, and federal inaction.

 

BC Attorney General and Housing Minister, David Eby thinks municipalities aren’t doing a good job of getting affordable houses and rental properties to the market.

With an estimated 25,000 new residents moving here each year, ramping up housing supply is an urgent priority.

Municipalities, however, continue to be bogged down with red tape and lengthy timelines according to Eby. He’s considering intervening with legislation this fall to streamline zoning approvals and provide greater density in single family neighbourhoods. 

Municipalities respond

The Union of BC Municipalities (UBCM), representing BC’s 162 municipalities, disagrees with Minister Eby’s analysis.

In a new report, Building BC: Housing completions and population growth, 2016-2021, the UBCM finds:

The UBCM asserts that the problem of getting more supply to market is rooted in:

The UBCM also has data which finds:

Action to address speculation

Rental housing strategy

Would include a variety of incentives and investments to support coops and other forms of attainable housing, not just supply for the sake of supply.

A Demand Management Strategy

Would include measures to stabilize prices and restore affordability.

A Comprehensive Homeless Strategy

Would substantially reduce the number of homeless residents.

 

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What will be the impact in the future housing and mortgage markets?

Wednesday, March 30th, 2022

Liberal-NDP deal: What does it mean for the housing market?

Fergal McAlinden
other

The agreement should see Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remain in power until at least 2025

 After securing another minority government in last September’s federal parliamentary election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears to have effectively guaranteed he’ll stay in power until at least 2025 by striking a deal with the New Democratic Party (NDP).

That move will see the beginning of a confidence-and-supply agreement between Trudeau’s Liberals and the NDP, with the latter – led by Jagmeet Singh – set to support the government in parliamentary votes in exchange for progress on NDP priorities.

Two of the main likely consequences of the deal have been identified as dramatic action on national pharmacare and dental care, both of which were cornerstones of the NDP’s election platform in 2021.

It remains to be seen what impact the agreement will have on the government’s plans for the housing and mortgage markets. A long-standing NDP proposal has been the reintroduction of 30-year terms for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)-insured mortgages for first-time buyers, a policy that’s been supported by industry members and associations including Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC).

The party also pledged in its 2021 manifesto to double the Home Buyer’s Tax Credit to $1,500 and place a foreign buyer’s tax of 20% on the sale of homes to non-Canadian citizens or permanent residents.

One of the pillars of that platform was a plan to create upwards of 500,000 units of affordable housing in the next decade, which the NDP said it would achieve through “the right mix of effective measures that work in partnership with provinces and municipalities, build capacity for social, community, and affordable housing providers, to provide rental support for co-ops, and meet environmental energy efficiency goals.”

Read next: What the Canada election result means for the mortgage industry

It’s still unclear whether any of those policies will become reality under the new Liberal-NDP arrangement. But with the current government seeming secure in its position until the next scheduled election three years down the line, a prominent member of Canada’s mortgage industry told Canadian Mortgage Professional that increasing affordability and opportunity in the housing market for young Canadians should be a key priority.

Graeme Moss (pictured top), founder and partner at Fair Mortgage Solutions, said that could involve taking an international approach and considering the work that’s being done in other countries to address affordable housing issues – policies that are working well, and others that aren’t.

“I’d also like to see the government consider outside-the-box thinking, [and] innovate,” he said. “CMHC has morphed and changed with the times. They have allowed so many people to gain and have pride in homeownership.

“It’s one of the best, no doubt – but when first brought in, it was a big change in the status quo. We need a change right now to match it, a change of thinking [and] adapting to the changing environment.”

The wellbeing and prospects of young Canadians are “paramount” to any future government policies on housing or the mortgage market, Moss said – particularly considering the affordability crisis that’s engulfed the country in recent years. “Market forces are such that the status quo is crushing the spirit and hope out of many,” he said.

Some of that “outside-the-box” thinking could include a renewed focus on micro housing, Moss said, a product type that he said was currently difficult to secure CMHC insurance for.

Read next: Canada election results – Liberals form new government

“I would consider taking a property and maybe putting two to three micro houses on it, and therefore CMHC and banks could lay claim to land which is the paramount factor,” he said. “They could securitize on that and each home might be worth $100,000-$150,000 – so an affordable start.”

Members of the mortgage industry will also be looking out to see whether further changes to the stress test rate for insured and uninsured mortgages are introduced this year, with that rate having been hiked last June by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) and the federal finance minister.

Moss said that he would argue for keeping the stress test rate on variable mortgage products, but that the government should consider qualifying on the actual fixed rate if a borrower chooses a fixed rate over a variable one.

“Variable involves risk and change, but if they go with a five-year fixed, then there will be no payment shocks during that period,” he said.

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BC’s housing affordability issues while public concern about the risk face in markets

Tuesday, March 29th, 2022

BCREA Addresses Minister Robinson’s Announcement

Darlene Hyde
BCREA

Yesterday, Minister of Finance Selina Robinson announced plans to amend the Property Law Act to pave the way for the introduction of a “Homebuyer Protection Period” in real estate transactions. While the Government’s announcement lacked detail, the Homebuyer Protection Period will give buyers the right to rescind offers in real estate transactions. While governmental language has changed, this is essentially the cooling-off period that has been much discussed in recent weeks.

As your provincial professional association, we know that REALTORS® share government and public concern about the risks consumers face in heated markets and the challenges of BC’s housing affordability issues. We also know that a cooling-off period could have unintended consequences, such as protecting buyers at the expense of sellers or encouraging buyers to make offers on properties they’re not serious about, consequently increasing competition and driving home prices higher.

Later this morning, we will release a statement to media in response to yesterday’s announcement which expresses our ongoing concern with their approach. We’re not alone in questioning the introduction of a cooling-off period. According to a recent survey of more than 1150 British Columbians, only 35% of consumers support a cooling-off period.

In our statement to media, we also assert that it’s time to stop spreading the myth that Realtors are driven by self-interest. Government needs to recognize the important contributions Realtors make towards better protecting consumers and improving housing affordability as consumers certainly do. The same survey that showed British Columbians do not widely support a cooling-off period also revealed that more than 70 per cent of consumers believe Realtors should be consulted on real estate policy changes.

We will continue to advocate on your behalf and keep you informed of our approach, as well as any opportunities for Realtors to support BCREA’s advocacy efforts.

To subscribe to receive BCREA publications such as this one, or to update your email address or current subscriptions, click here.

Copyright © 2022 British Columbia Real Estate Association