Housing starts drop off everywhere … except BC


Tuesday, February 10th, 2004

Wendy McLellan
Province

Housing starts in Canada fell more than expected last month — except in B.C., the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation said yesterday.

Across the country, starts fell nearly 11 per cent, to 195,000 single and multiple units from December’s level and it’s the first time since last May that starts dipped below 200,000.

“Before reading too much into this mildly disappointing result, it is critical to note that January’s unusually harsh weather likely put a significant dampener on starts last month,” said Sherry Cooper, chief economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns. “As the old saying goes, housing data around this time of year are as much a weather report as an economic report.”

But unlike the rest of Canada, January was another boom month in B.C. where starts jumped by 17 per cent from December, and 94 per cent compared to January, 2003. Most of the activity took place in Greater Vancouver.

“It’s not unusual for B.C. to be heading in different ways than the rest of the country,” said Keith Sashaw, Vancouver Regional Construction Association president.

“What we’re seeing is pent-up demand for housing, combined with more optimism and interest rates at historic lows.”

Cameron Muir, a Vancouver-based market analyst for CMHC, said housing starts in the Lower Mainland increased 140 per cent last month compared to January, 2003. New construction of multiple units in Vancouver account for almost all of the building, partly due to new fees city hall will charge developers and builders beginning later this month.

“The market is very robust — there is virtually no inventory,” Muir said. “Most of the units under construction have already been spoken for and builders and developers have very little inventory on the books to be built.”

At the beginning of 1999, Vancouver had 2,624 new unoccupied condos awaiting sale, Muir said. Today, there are 141 and only five are in the downtown core.

Multiple unit construction jumped dramatically in most of the Lower Mainland suburbs compared to last year’s figures. In January, 2003, there were 244 multiple units started; this year, the number rose to 1,235 — an increase of 406 per cent. In the same period, single detached housing starts dropped 11 per cent.

Economic forecasts for 2004 suggest that despite last month’s slip in the rest of the country, the new housing market should remain strong as interest rates stay low and employment rates continue to grow.

© The Vancouver Province 2004

 



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