Archive for November, 2004

Housing starts fall, but still up 21% so far this year

Tuesday, November 9th, 2004

Growth expected to continue through 2005, boosted by various factors

Michael Kane
Sun

 

Monthly housing starts in Greater Vancouver plunged 42 per cent in October, but that’s nothing to get too excited about, industry experts say.

Starts in the region are up 21 per cent so far this year and growth is expected to continue through 2005, boosted by provincial in-migration, rising full-time employment and improving export markets.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported 1,151 unit starts in October, with multiple starts (townhouses and condominiums) down 54 per cent and single detached up three per cent, compared to the same month last year.

Cameron Muir, senior market analyst for CMHC, said the decline is the result of normal month-to-month fluctuations in the multiple sector and “looks more dramatic than it is” because of strong multiple starts in October, 2003.

“The addition of a few large multiple projects in any given month can cause wide variation in total housing starts from month-to-month, and we don’t see it as a trend.”

Most of the decline was in the city of Vancouver, where there was a surge of activity in the spring and summer from developers who secured building permits before slated increases in development cost levies.

Muir noted that the B.C. economy is at the start of a growth cycle, with improving export markets and strong full-time employment growth that bodes well for housing markets.

Last week, Statistics Canada reported that building permits in B.C. were up 7.2 per cent in September over the previous month, while the value of permits across Canada was down 3.3 per cent, the first time in seven years that national permit values have fallen for three consecutive months.

“When you look at the number of full-time jobs created in Greater Vancouver and the building permits issued, it is a positive indicator for the next couple of years,” Muir said.

Starts were forecast to hit 16,600 for the Greater Vancouver region this year and are already at 16,350 for the first 10 months, said Greater Vancouver Home Builders Association chief executive Peter Simpson.

“We still have two months to go, and we are looking forward to 2005 being a continuation of the growth we have seen in 2004.” Simpson said. “In fact, B.C. is expected to be the only province to record higher starts next year.”

© The Vancouver Sun 2004

Premier turns the sod for convention centre

Tuesday, November 9th, 2004

$565-million project will boost convention capacity for 2008

Wendy Mclellan
Province

 

CREDIT: Gerry Kahrmann, The Province

Premier Gordon Campbell shows off a model of the new convention centre.

After more than a decade of planning, construction officially began yesterday on Vancouver‘s new convention centre on the downtown waterfront in Coal Harbour.

Premier Gordon Campbell, joined by representatives from all levels of government, operated a backhoe for the ceremonial sod-turning — actually an asphalt-lifting — at the site, the former float-plane terminal parking lot west of Canada Place.

The $565-million project is scheduled for completion in 2008.

“Clearly, this [expansion] will have a major impact on tourism in B.C.,” Campbell said. “Even though we’re starting the project today, we’re already out selling the facilities for events in 2008 and beyond.”

He said B.C.’s tourism industry began lobbying for expanded convention facilities in 1993. The existing centre turns away 50 events a year — and $150 million in economic benefits — because of the lack of convention space.

The expansion will be linked by covered walkway to the existing Vancouver Convention and Exhibition Centre and will add 35,470 square metres of event space to the current 12,400.

It will allow for 20 additional major events a year, and will double the number of delegates that can be accommodated to 5,000.

The new building and plaza, which will be built on a 3.25-hectare site and cover about four city blocks, feature an environmentally friendly 2.4-hectare “living roof” of plants native to the West Coast.

The existing convention centre, which opened in 1987, will also be refurbished.

The federal and provincial governments, along with $90 million from Tourism Vancouver and the private sector, will pay for the project.

“This is going to be something everyone is proud of,” Campbell said.

The project is expected to provide 6,702 person-years of employment during construction and more than 7,500 full-time jobs once the centre is in use.

In 2010, the site will be the media and broadcast centre for the Winter Olympics, which are expected to bring 10,000 journalists to the city.

Federal Industry Minister David Emerson called the project, and the funding partnership, a “strategic intervention in the economy” that will increase tourism and enhance trade opportunities in Asia.

“This project has been a long time coming, and it’s been a long, winding road,” Emerson said yesterday. “Finally getting this project under way is extremely gratifying.”

[email protected]

– – –

TIMELINE

– July, 1987: The current convention centre opens at Canada Place.

– 1994: Las Vegas casino developer Steve Wynn and his Mirage Resorts group proposes with local developer, VLC Properties, to build Seaport Centre on the east side of Canada Place. The project is to include a casino, convention facility and 1,000-room hotel, but fierce opposition, especially from anti-gambling groups, kills the plan.

– 1996: Tourism industry announces it is willing to financially support a convention-centre expansion.

– 1997-99: Renewed efforts to build a convention centre, named Portside, east Canada Place after Marathon Developments withdraws its proposal for Discovery Place on the west side.

– 1999: Then-premier Dan Miller cancels Portside, saying the government won’t consider expanding the city’s convention facilities unless the private sector comes forward.

– 2002: B.C.’s new Liberal government secures a site for the expansion on the west side of Canada Place through an agreement with Marathon Developments and tries in vain to find a private investment partner.

– 2003: B.C. successfully negotiates with the federal government to finance the expansion. Ottawa commits $225.5 million, matching the province’s contribution. Tourism Vancouver agrees to contribute $90 million to the project.

– November 2004: Site to be cleared.

– February 2005: Pile driving on land and in water around project to prepare for construction.

– 2008: Expansion scheduled for completion.

© The Vancouver Province 2004

RCMP blast keeps residents of Burnaby highrise shut out

Monday, November 8th, 2004

David Hogben
Sun

CREDIT: Glenn Baglo, Vancouver Sun Police were forced to blow out a suite door at Carrigan Court.

CREDIT: Glenn Baglo, Vancouver Sun RCMP demolition experts were forced to blow in a heavily reinforced door (at end of hall) after a Burnaby man held police in a standoff for four days. The blast caused extensive damage to the floor in 3970 Carrigan Court.

Four weeks after police stormed a Burnaby condominium unit, blasting its door off and rendering nearby suites uninhabitable, residents of the 26-floor tower are still being put up in a nearby hotel.

The damaged occurred Oct. 9 after a metalworker with suspected psychiatric problems, and a firearm, held police at bay for over four days. RCMP demolition experts eventually had to use a large amount of explosives to blow in the heavily reinforced door to his 20th-floor suite.

“It was definitely loud, kind of like a gunshot,” said resident Dave Magnusson, who lives two floors above.

The force of the blast damaged light fixtures, pried doors off hinges and cracked wallboard in up to 10 suites, whose residents will spend yet more weeks in a nearby hotel.

Even residents on other floors were affected.

“It’s definitely a nuisance,” said Martin Kendell, who lives on the 10th floor. Kendell said he must leave his suite 10 minutes earlier than usual if he wants to keep an appointment, because only one of three elevators is functioning.

RCMP Sgt. John Ward said it will still be a while before the residents can return. “I can tell you that they are not going back within the next week or so, that is for sure.”

A visit to the 20th floor revealed a scene that looked like a construction site.

Walls separating the condominium suites from the common hallway were merely metal studs, hanging sheets of plastic and plywood sheets.

Ward said the scene probably looks worse now than it did immediately after the blast. He said the walls had to be removed so inspectors could ensure no damage was done to concrete foundations.

One 20th-floor resident, Myles Robson, said he is upset with the quality of the hotel he was placed in, but said he would not identify it at the request of the RCMP.

“It’s embarrassing to have people over,” said Robson, who said he and his roommate are accustomed to better surroundings. He said, however, he did not fault the RCMP for the way they handled the incident.

It is still too soon to estimate the cost of the damage, but Ward said it will be substantial.

He said he would not be surprised if the cost of the repairs and hotel bills comes in at more than $100,000. He said it will probably be less than $500,000.

Whatever the bill comes to, Ward said, it will not drain the Burnaby RCMP budget. He said the force has a contingency fund to cover such incidents.

Events began on the evening of Oct. 6 when the rope of a window-washer’s suspended platform outside the tower was cut.

Fortunately, the window-washer was not on the platform at the time.

Police were called to the building at 3970 Carrigan Court in Burnaby. They surrounded the tower and attempted unsuccessfully to coax the man out.

All attempts to negotiate failed, said Ward.

“We exhausted every possible means of trying to get the gentleman to leave his suite. We were concerned for his safety,” Ward said of the decision to blast out the door of the man’s suite around dinner time on Saturday, Oct. 9.

“The intelligence we had indicated that he had at least one [firearm] in the suite.”

Once the door was blown off, police sent a robot in to check out the residence.

The uninjured man was taken into custody and sent for an assessment of his mental health.

Ward said one review of the use of the explosive has already concluded that an appropriate amount of force was used. Another routine investigation is being conducted, but, Ward said, the fact that no one was injured in a long, potentially dangerous standoff indicates the operation was well conducted.

© The Vancouver Sun 2004

RCMP blast keeps residents of Burnaby highrise shut out

Monday, November 8th, 2004

David Hogben
Sun

CREDIT: Glenn Baglo, Vancouver Sun Police were forced to blow out a suite door at Carrigan Court.

CREDIT: Glenn Baglo, Vancouver Sun RCMP demolition experts were forced to blow in a heavily reinforced door (at end of hall) after a Burnaby man held police in a standoff for four days. The blast caused extensive damage to the floor in 3970 Carrigan Court.

Four weeks after police stormed a Burnaby condominium unit, blasting its door off and rendering nearby suites uninhabitable, residents of the 26-floor tower are still being put up in a nearby hotel.

The damaged occurred Oct. 9 after a metalworker with suspected psychiatric problems, and a firearm, held police at bay for over four days. RCMP demolition experts eventually had to use a large amount of explosives to blow in the heavily reinforced door to his 20th-floor suite.

“It was definitely loud, kind of like a gunshot,” said resident Dave Magnusson, who lives two floors above.

The force of the blast damaged light fixtures, pried doors off hinges and cracked wallboard in up to 10 suites, whose residents will spend yet more weeks in a nearby hotel.

Even residents on other floors were affected.

“It’s definitely a nuisance,” said Martin Kendell, who lives on the 10th floor. Kendell said he must leave his suite 10 minutes earlier than usual if he wants to keep an appointment, because only one of three elevators is functioning.

RCMP Sgt. John Ward said it will still be a while before the residents can return. “I can tell you that they are not going back within the next week or so, that is for sure.”

A visit to the 20th floor revealed a scene that looked like a construction site.

Walls separating the condominium suites from the common hallway were merely metal studs, hanging sheets of plastic and plywood sheets.

Ward said the scene probably looks worse now than it did immediately after the blast. He said the walls had to be removed so inspectors could ensure no damage was done to concrete foundations.

One 20th-floor resident, Myles Robson, said he is upset with the quality of the hotel he was placed in, but said he would not identify it at the request of the RCMP.

“It’s embarrassing to have people over,” said Robson, who said he and his roommate are accustomed to better surroundings. He said, however, he did not fault the RCMP for the way they handled the incident.

It is still too soon to estimate the cost of the damage, but Ward said it will be substantial.

He said he would not be surprised if the cost of the repairs and hotel bills comes in at more than $100,000. He said it will probably be less than $500,000.

Whatever the bill comes to, Ward said, it will not drain the Burnaby RCMP budget. He said the force has a contingency fund to cover such incidents.

Events began on the evening of Oct. 6 when the rope of a window-washer’s suspended platform outside the tower was cut.

Fortunately, the window-washer was not on the platform at the time.

Police were called to the building at 3970 Carrigan Court in Burnaby. They surrounded the tower and attempted unsuccessfully to coax the man out.

All attempts to negotiate failed, said Ward.

“We exhausted every possible means of trying to get the gentleman to leave his suite. We were concerned for his safety,” Ward said of the decision to blast out the door of the man’s suite around dinner time on Saturday, Oct. 9.

“The intelligence we had indicated that he had at least one [firearm] in the suite.”

Once the door was blown off, police sent a robot in to check out the residence.

The uninjured man was taken into custody and sent for an assessment of his mental health.

Ward said one review of the use of the explosive has already concluded that an appropriate amount of force was used. Another routine investigation is being conducted, but, Ward said, the fact that no one was injured in a long, potentially dangerous standoff indicates the operation was well conducted.

© The Vancouver Sun 2004

Groundbreaking ceremony today for convention centre

Monday, November 8th, 2004

An aerial view of convention centre slated for expansion

Sun

 

PHOTO BY MIKE CLEGG – PHOTO BLIMP/SPECIAL TO THE VANCOUVER SUN Based on plan renderings

This aerial photograph was taken Thursday from 180 metres (600 feet) above the harbourside site of the Vancouver Convention Centre Expansion Project. A groundbreaking ceremony scheduled today marks the official start of construction on the $565-million, four-year project that will deliver 491,000 square feet of convention space.

A. Dotted red line here marks northern perimeter of the project, extending beyond what is now the shoreline running west of Canada Place. The line defines the path of a seawall walkway that will extend around the perimeter of the new centre (photo does not show entire perimeter).

B. Commercial float plane terminals, to be moved for the duration of construction to a site nearer Stanley Park.

C. Canada Place, out of photo to the right, already houses convention space. It will be linked to the new facility, which is scheduled to open in 2008.

D. Waterfront Centre

E. Plans call for this parking lot to become a hotel.

F. Shaw Tower

G. Canada Place Way, the existing service road that runs along the harbour.

© The Vancouver Sun 2004

 

UBC green home effect

Sunday, November 7th, 2004

Jeani Read
Province

 

CREDIT: Wayne Leidenfrost, The Province

Reflections has a traditional look but a very modern sustainable-development philosophy that makes it the “greenest” housing project at UBC so far. The wide open living and dining space (above) allows a clean view through the apartment.

At Reflections, they’ve been listening to what people want and what they choose, says Adera sales manager Tony Flynn. So it stands to reason that things out at Adera’s huge Hawthorne Place development at UBC should be getting better all the time.

Reflections is the latest offering at this big “univer-city” which is eating up tract after tract of land on campus. And detail, especially in the top end, is what makes the difference here. There’s also an innovative sustainable-development philosophy that makes it the “greenest” project at UBC so far. Features include everything from creating ecologically sound landscaping which reduces water needed for irrigation to improving indoor air quality by using low-emitting floor coverings, sealants and adhesives to encouraging alternative transportation by providing spaces for car-sharing vehicles. Very virtuous — and the list goes on.

But back to the sexy part — space-age hood fans, five-element gas ranges, brilliant hardwood flooring, sophisticated bathroom vessel sinks and more.

One of the selling points of Reflections’ companion structure, Journey, which is now almost sold out, was that there were so many upgrades and options that buyers could virtually custom-make their homes, with no two the same, says Flynn.

Reflections, which has a more traditional look than the west coast-style Journey, follows the same idea but one-ups it for people who buy the penthouses — there, top-of-the-line upgrades are all standard, as befits the kings of the castle. Stainless is standard (GM Monogram no less), as are beautiful granite counters, tile flooring and glass-inset maple cabinetry in the kitchen, frameless oversize shower in the powder room and double vessel sinks and soaker tub/shower in the ensuite.

It’s predictable and yet amazing what piling on the options can do — the display suite looks spectacular, while a mirror-image suite with no upgrades just looked ordinary when we saw one some months ago at Journey. Although this suite opted for opulent 42-ounce cut-pile carpet in the living area, another Reflections display demonstrated hardwood flooring that was not only gorgeous but elegantly traditional by having a “framed” edge detail we haven’t seen for years, but that looks wonderful.

And really, why make an investment like this if you’re not in the mood to make it super-special? Not all the options on display for the penthouse are available for the lower levels but certainly stainless appliances, the hardwood, crown mouldings and more will allow owners to do as much customizing as they did in Journey before.

The display floor plan is a generous, convenient open-plan with two bedrooms separated for privacy, and the master suite once more a self-contained little haven with walk-through closet to the ensuite.

The kitchen (left) has a space-age hood fan and access (above). The bedroom (below).

Occupancy for Reflections is from September thru December 2005.

QUICK FACTS

WHAT: Reflections is 77 apartment homes at UBC

WHERE: 6328 Larkin Drive, Vancouver

DEVELOPED BY: Adera Realty Corp.

SIZES: One-, two- and three-bedrooms homes, 695 sq.ft. — 1,655 sq. ft.

PRICES: $299,900 — $599,900

OPEN: Noon to five p.m. daily except Friday, 6328 Larkin Drive off West Mall and Marine Drive, 604-221-8878

© The Vancouver Province 2004

Into a good space: Holistic architect uses ancient principles to create environments that feel right

Saturday, November 6th, 2004

Kim Pemberton
Sun

CREDIT: Stuart Davis, Vancouver Sun At St. Paul’s church, Rodney Cottrell used sacred geometry for a wheelchair ramp sheltered by a curved canopy.

Have you ever walked into a building and it just felt right?

You may not have been able to explain why, but there are invisible reasons that some places are more spiritually uplifting and healthy than others, says Vancouver architect Rodney Cottrell.

The 46-year-old is one of the few architects in North America consciously working at creating “holistic” spaces in the built environment. He is also the founder of the only registered “holistic architectural” firm in Canada. (There are about two dozen in the U.S., he says.)

“It’s combining energetic and physical aspects of form to create space,” explains Cottrell.

“It’s beyond energy efficiency to include human energy and earth energy. It comes across as a bit esoteric to the bricks-and-mortar people I work with in the building industry, but if you take a look at the last 10,000 years of human experience and knowledge, why wouldn’t you want to learn from that instead of ignoring it?”

That means Cottrell’s work not only deals with traditional architecture but incorporates such concepts as feng shui, sacred geometry, Platonic solids (spheres, pyramids, cubes), and golden proportions (a geometric equation where everything “fits perfectly”).

“It’s a case of bringing in all that knowledge and looking at a given site, a given client, to create the best space,” he says.

Knowing a client’s date, time and place of birth, Cottrell says, helps when applying feng shui principals to their living space. Feng shui is the Chinese practice of positioning objects based on a belief that qi, the vital force that sustains all living things, must flow freely in a healthy environment.

Placing a building’s main entrance on the east side, where “fresh, new untainted energies would enter each day” would be an example of applying feng shui to architecture, Cottrell says.

While he realizes all this may sound like “hocus-pocus” to some, Cottrell believes it will become more commonplace in the future — particularly in a place such as Vancouver, where so many people embrace an “organic, holistic lifestyle,” he says.

“There’s something about the energy of this particular part of the world that when you follow your heart, things spark. . . . I strongly believe that when you close your mind to something you close the door.

“We are already world leaders as a building and design community, but people still seem to be largely blind to the making of space — pulling in the ancient with the best of the modern.”

Cottrell says he himself came to practise holistic architecture by fate.

After getting his urban geography degree in 1981 from the University of B.C., his goal was to work in town planning and become “Mr. Brady with the big house and beautiful wife,” he says.

But there were no jobs available for town planners in this economically depressed time. Fate stepped in, and Cottrell learned by chance that King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, known as the “builder king,” was on a global search to find astronomers to build the world’s largest optical observatory. Cottrell took a crash course in astronomy and applied for the job.

He was one of 600 Canadian applicants, and ultimately among the 12 selected who were then flown to Saudi Arabia. On top of a mountain in the desert one night, Cottrell says, a profound experience determined his course.

“I had an epiphany — no voice of god or flash of light — but it was a total instant imparting of knowledge that everything is connected and everything is conscious. That moment changed my life. I began to search for human knowledge to incorporate into my life.”

After two years of working for the king of Saudi Arabia, he returned to Canada and pursued a degree in architecture at Carleton University, where he graduated in 1990. In 1997 he registered his holistic architectural firm and began applying ancient knowledge in his architectural work. Born and raised in Victoria, Cottrell came back to B.C. because he appreciates the earth’s energy here — particularly in Victoria, Vancouver and Nelson.

These places, he believes, are well suited for residential developments because they are “much more centered” than other parts of the Lower Mainland.

“The earth has its own energy,” he says. “There are huge amounts of energy that flow from the mountain to the valley towards the sea. We need to be in places of repose and calm, especially residential areas.”

Cottrell says Richmond, much of the Fraser Valley and New Westminster from an “energetic level happen to be parts where the [earth’s] energy is sweeping across the landscape.

“In Vancouver the energy is starting to get calm, but further upstream and into the narrow part of the funnel around New Westminster, it’s a more vibrant, active, restless energy,” he says.

Nelson, he adds, has a nice energy because “it’s held within the palm of the mountains in such a way [that] the energy neither stagnates nor rushes across the town of Nelson.”

Cottrell says every place, every room, imparts a feeling for the people who live there.

“When you walk in you [know] whether it feels good or not. Holistic architecture is about love and celebration. Those are the key words,” he says, then quickly adds: “My field is challenging. I wouldn’t want to be seen as the consummate New Age person.

“I still love the study of quantum physics, and I have a demanding scientific and logical side to my mind which is constantly in dialogue with this other side,” he says.

But, he says with a smile, it’s his intuitive side that always wins out.

HOMEWORKS

Besides his work in holistic architecture, Rodney Cottrell is the coordinator of a unique outreach program run by the Architectural Institute of B.C. (AIBC) called Architects in Schools.

The program promotes public awareness, education and advocacy regarding architecture and is aimed at students from kindergarten to Grade 12.

The program, founded in 1994 by AIBC, focuses on promoting the study of the built environment as art, science and as a manifestation of social values and ideals.

B.C. architects, intern architects and architectural students work in partnership with interested school districts, schools and teachers to develop meaningful classroom activities related to the built environment. Volunteers are also available to speak on architecture as a career choice.

For more information on Architects in Schools contact AIBC’s communications department at (604) 683-8588, ext. 308 or
e-mail [email protected].

© The Vancouver Sun 2004

Keep an eye on your kids or office on the net

Friday, November 5th, 2004

Brian Morton
Sun

 

VANCOUVER SUN
Blair Miller, Telus internet services director, holds a video camera that can remotely monitor home or business as part of the firm’s new HomeSitter Internet security service.

It’s called Telus HomeSitter, a new Internet service geared primarily to residential customers, but it might be the answer for small business owners requiring an extra “eye” in their offices or stores.

That’s the claim of Telus‘ Internet services director Blair Miller, who said in an interview Thursday the new service provides “peace of mind” for companies, including those with multiple stores.

“This is a great application for small businesses,” Miller said. “It’s not a security system with third-party monitoring. But if your alarm goes off at night, HomeSitter allows you to look in and see what’s happening.

“And you can also see everything in the office while you’re away. You can keep an eye on the pulse of the business.”

B.C. Civil Liberties Association executive director Murray Mollard said that businesses applying the service could run into problems with the provincial Personal Information Protection Act because it might infringe on employees’ or others’ privacy rights.

“It could run afoul of that,” Mollard said in an interview. “I think it will be very difficult for employers to set up video surveillance without justification. In a business context, there’s no doubt that if it’s monitoring employees or if it’s used to collect video images of third parties, there’s a legal obligation.

“The test involves reasonableness. And that depends on the purposes in which the information is collected and why is it being used.”

Miller replied that Telus doesn’t advise companies to use the service to monitor employees and that it’s a great way to monitor business locations after business hours. “It’s up to the business owners and the employees as to how they want to apply it.”

The new service, which was launched this week by Telus, involves a multiple video camera network that provides constant security in your home or business, Telus said.

It allows subscribers to monitor as many as four areas of their homes, vacation cabins or businesses remotely. Customers can monitor from their desk at work or from a cell phone, especially one with video streaming.

Customers could be in an office, another city or even another country and yet keep an eye on how their children or elderly parents are doing at home. The system could also be set up to notify your computer at home if there has been movement detected in your home or business, especially near cash registers.

According to a Telus news release, HomeSitter allows customers peace-of-mind by allowing them to remotely access the system through a private account via any high speed Internet connection. Viewers can view either real-time streaming video or short video files recorded automatically after a camera’s motion sensor detects movement. HomeSitter can be configured so customers can be notified by wireless phone, pager, or e-mail when motion is detected.

The system is very secure, Telus added. It uses wireless technology, so there are no wires running around the home or business.

Telus said the service builds on the Telus home networking product that was launched a few months ago.

There is 24-hour technical support and it is offered for $9.95 a month for high speed Telus customers or $14.95 or others, Telus said.

Cameras start at $249.95 each and are available from Telus.

Miller said the system is expandable, with a business able to access up to five stores at one time.

“At this point, it’s directed more at residential customers,” he added, “but we see a vast potential for applying it to small businesses.”

He said the response so far has been very good.

The Telus news release states that Telus worked with Toronto-based broadband software developer Casero to introduce the new service.

Telus has a reputation in the industry for driving new service development that leverages its investment in broadband infrastructure,” Casero president and CEO Kevin Kimsa said in a statement.

© The Vancouver Sun 2004

Housing prices likely to soften

Friday, November 5th, 2004

The market is taking a breather after the spell of hectic activity, experts say

Bruce Constantineau
Sun

 

Greater Vancouver house prices should soften over the next few months as falling sales and a higher volume of listings work against future price hikes, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver president Andrew Peck said Thursday.

The board reported that Greater Vancouver house sales continued their recent slide last month, with 2,735 homes sold on the Multiple Listing Service in October — a four-per-cent decline from September sales and 27.4 per cent lower than October 2003.

The recent decline in sales activity has dropped total sales during the first 10 months of this year to slightly below the record pace set during the same period last year — down to 32,068 sales from 32,364 a year ago.

Peck said the market had to take a breather from the hectic activity that took place last year, when low interest rates and a shortage of listings created conditions where properties received multiple offers and sold for more than their asking prices.

“There’s only so much room for that kind of activity,” Peck said in an interview from Florida, where he attended a national housing conference. “Now we have a really good solid real estate market.”

Peck said Greater Vancouver house prices shot up quickly in the past two years because interest rates fell so rapidly. Peck believes higher interest rates and rising listings will work against future price hikes.

“I think you will see prices starting to soften over the next little while,” Peck said. “Many sellers had unrealistic expectations and with interest rates rising a bit, buyers are being more careful.

“They’re saying that if [sellers] don’t take their offer, they won’t be as stressed about it because something else will come on the market tomorrow.”

Board statistics show the number of MLS listings during the first 10 months of this year rose by about 19 per cent to 48,900.

The board said the benchmark price of a detached home in Greater Vancouver has increased by 10.7 per cent in the past year to $493,200. The benchmark price of an attached home is up 13.6 per cent to $324,300 while the benchmark price of an apartment has risen 15.1 per cent to $243,100.

Burnaby realtor Bruce Miller said the market peaked in June this year, when activity was “frenzied” and sellers had unrealistic price expectations.

“June prices set a new benchmark and everybody hiked their prices up by 10 or 15 per cent above the most recent comparable sale, which put them a lot higher than they should have been,” he said.

Miller, with Sutton Group Priority Realty, said homeowners who were serious about selling dropped their asking prices fairly quickly to get in tune with what was happening in the market.

“Now I’d say we’re in an above-average active market,” he said. “It’s not a red-hot market any more.”

Miller said that in the Burnaby/New Westminster/Coquitlam area now, townhouses and apartments priced from $150,000 to $200,000 are selling strongly and probably account for about 35 per cent of all sales, up from 20 per cent a few months ago.

Single-family homes are still the most popular properties, though, and those priced between $350,000 and $400,000 are also strong sellers, he said.

HOMES SALES DOWN, BUT PRICES KEEP GOING UP:

Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board October home sales, including apartment properties, dropped 27.4% compared to October 2003. The MLS Housing Price Index, meanwhile, showed significant gains from October 2003 to October 2004.

DETACHED SALES

-33.0%

ATTACHED SALES

-20.5%

APARTMENT SALES

-24.7%

DETACHED PRICES

+10.7%

ATTACHED PRICES

+13.6

APARTMENT PRICES

+15.1

Source: Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board

© The Vancouver Sun 2004

Housing market stays ‘robust’

Friday, November 5th, 2004

Prices will continue up despite rising interest rates

Derrick Penner
Sun

 

Cameron Muir, senior marketing analyst for CMHC (right) and CMHC regional economist Carol Frketich reflect on gains.

Rising mortgage rates and declining home sales across the Lower Mainland are not signs the sky is falling on the real estate market, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. experts.

The torrid market of recent years, fuelled by record-low interest rates and marked by bidding wars, will be replaced by a strong market that is moved along by other economic fundamentals.

The agency is expecting to see demand for new housing cruise along at 28,000 to 30,000 units through 2011.

“There is no market correction on the horizon,” Cameron Muir, CMHC’s senior market analyst, said in an interview Thursday during the agency’s annual housing outlook conference in Vancouver.

“We see very strong fundamentals in the marketplace — from employment growth, from migration, from an improving provincial economy, greater exports, and an improving tourism sector — that [are] going to really keep the housing market robust over the next several years.”

CMHC predicts that in 2005, B.C. will be the only province in Canada to see continued growth in new home construction. It estimates the province will see 32,400 new units built, a 2.2-per-cent increase from 2004. Greater Vancouver, with 20,000 new housing units, will likely see most of that new construction.

However, Muir said overall sales are expected to level off as new construction catches up with demand to increase inventories and the “pent-up demand” of first-time buyers and investors begins to wane.

MLS sales across Greater Vancouver are expected to hit 38,600 in 2004, Muir said, and tail off to an even 38,000 in 2005. “We’ll see prices still climb, but not at the kind of rates we’ve seen over the past two years,” he added.

Greater Vancouver homeowners will have seen the value of their homes increase 15 to 17 per cent in 2004. Muir said values will climb in the four- to eight-per-cent range in 2005.

Muir said rising mortgage rates, which are expected to increase by one percentage point over the next year, will hurt affordability for new buyers, but that should be offset by improvements in the economy.

Muir said the bottom line is that there will be an end to the “seller’s market” the Lower Mainland has experienced during the past two years where “buyers have been buying up practically everything.”

As the market “approaches more balanced conditions,” Muir said homebuilders who want to be successful will have to focus on the fundamentals of migration, and a demographic shift in favour of baby boomers.

“The largest market that we’re going to experience in those existing owners that have benefited from a large equity build up over the last several years,” Muir said. “These will be in the form of either move up, move over, move down buyers.”

In his presentation, Muir said that projections of new housing demand show that by 2016, demand for the 65-and-over age group will outstrip the 35-to-64 demographic by almost a quarter.

By 2021, Muir said the 65-and-over age group will demand more than twice the amount of new housing than the 35-to-64 demographic.

CMHC regional economist Carol Frketich said economic conditions are ripe to support a continued strong market. In 2005, she said, housing demand will be influenced by employment growth experienced in 2004.

“Housing demand typically lags employment growth,” Frketich said. “So, if you look at 2003, it was a good year in terms of employment gains, and there was very strong housing demand [in 2004].

“Going forward, once again, this year saw very solid gains in full-time employment, and that will support demand for housing again next year.”

Commodity demand due to world economic growth that will hit five per cent this year has helped fuel the recovery of B.C.’s economy, but Frketich added that the province is diversifying its job base.

About three-quarters of all jobs are now in the service sector, she said, and the province is seeing significant growth in the technology and biotech sectors, which helps draw people back to B.C. Frketich said people poured out of the province in the mid 1990s while B.C.’s economy struggled in relation to the rest of the country.

That trend has been reversing since 1998, she said, and in the second quarter of 2004, B.C. saw net migration of 10,249 people. Frketich said international migration will continue to boost housing demand through 2011.

There are risks to economic growth. Frketich said the high Canadian dollar could dampen export demand, but she added that slower economic growth means lower inflation.

With inflation in check, Frketich said the Bank of Canada will be more inclined to keep interest rates low.

Muir said the Housing Outlook conference is a chance for CMHC to share its research with all real estate industry stakeholders, from developers to builders and lending institutions to “help the market operate more efficiently.”

Almost 400 attended Thursday’s event at Vancouver‘s Hyatt Regency Hotel.

© The Vancouver Sun 2004