Archive for May, 2019

CRA identifies over $1b in tax evasion since 2015

Thursday, May 30th, 2019

The Canada Revenue Agency has identified over a $1 billion in unpaid gross taxes in the real estate

Neil Sharma
Mortgage Broker News

The Canada Revenue Agency has identified over a $1 billion in unpaid gross taxes in the real estate sector since 2015 and has doled out over $100 million in penalties.

“Last year, the CRA assessed $171m more in additional gross taxes related to real estate than in the year prior, a 65% increase,” read a news release. “Penalties also totaled over $57m, which is more than double compared to the year prior.”

The federal budget included more money for the CRA to enforce compliance. The agency will receive $50m over five years and $10m ongoing to create the Real Estate Task Force, which will begin its focus on the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas. The hope is that it will deter non-compliance in Canada’s two most expensive real estate markets.

The move has been welcomed by the Toronto Real Estate Board, which noted that while Toronto and Vancouver could be problem areas, tax evasion is a nation-wide problem.
“The Canada Revenue Agency should be enforcing the law not just in the Greater Toronto Area and Vancouver, but across the country in all markets,” said Von Palmer, TREB’s chief government and communications officer. “Taxpayers should be complying with the law and report all sales of their principal residence on their tax returns and any capital gain from property sales where the principal residence tax exemption doesn’t apply. This should not be viewed as a GTA or Ontario or British Columbia issue. There’s no excuse for tax non-compliance and hopefully these CRA audits will deter non-compliance.”

For the last few years, the CRA has been working closely with B.C. and Ontario to tackle tax evasion in real estate, and it’s resulted in information collection and exchange, as well as improved reporting—which the CRA credits with improved audits.

“The Government of Canada is committed to ensuring that Canadians benefit from a strong, stable housing sector,” The Honourable Diane Lebouthillier, Minister of National Revenue, said in a statement. “With Budget 2019’s proposed multi-year funding for the CRA’s work on the real estate sector, we will create a new Real Estate Tax Force and increase our efforts to combat non-compliance to better ensure tax rules in the real estate sector are followed by all Canadians.”

Copyright © 2019 Key Media

‘Marshmallow soft’ B.C. home sales to fall 11 per cent, prices to keep sliding: forecast

Wednesday, May 29th, 2019

Median residential resale price won’t see uptick until 2021 at the earliest, predicts Central 1 economist

Joannah Connolly
Western Investor

Home sales across the province will remain “marshmallow soft” through the rest of the year, according to a forecast published May 28 by Central 1 Credit Union.

2019 will see a total year-over-year sales decline of nearly 11 per cent, province wide, said the report. This will be followed by a recovery of 8.8 per cent in 2020, taking resale transactions across B.C. to just below 2018 levels, reported deputy chief economist Bryan Yu.

That 2019 sales-drop prediction increases to 14 per cent when looking at the Lower Mainland alone.

Yu told Glacier Media in an interview, “In B.C., the market is quite different to what we’re seeing across the rest of the country, where sales have stabilized… But we are expecting a moderate rebound in sales in 2020.”

He added, “This is not an economy-driven downturn, it’s a policy-driven event. The federal B20 [mortgage stress test] measures and various provincial taxation policies have all come together to drag on the market.”

Price declines

However, with price trends lagging sales declines, B.C.’s average home resale price will continue to slide for the rest of this year and through 2020, predicted Yu, with a slight uptick expected no sooner than 2021.

The province’s median home resale price across the year is expected to decline 4.1 per cent in 2019, then a further 1.2 per cent in 2020. This will be followed by the most meagre of recoveries in 2021 with a 1 per cent rise, which doesn’t even bring the median back to 2019 prices.

The biggest short- to medium-term price declines are expected, unsurprisingly, in Metro Vancouver, said Yu – but this could be what puts the market back on track in the longer term.

“In Metro Vancouver, on a benchmark basis, prices are down around eight per cent and we’re expecting that to fall further, giving us a total peak-to-trough decline of about 12 to 15 per cent. So that will erase a lot of the gains we saw from 2016 onwards. But this should pull some people back into the market. A lot of the problems we’ve seen is just that people simply can’t afford the financing to buy a home, and this should improve… Price declines in Metro Vancouver and other parts of B.C. should motivate some people to re-enter the homeownership space. And when we look at the economy itself, it’s quite solid, we’re seeing strong job growth and population gains, which should also provide support for the housing market going forward.”

Knock-on effects

Yu’s report also looked at the knock-on effects of the more severe Metro Vancouver market slowdown on other parts of the province.

Yu wrote in his report, “Weak activity in Metro Vancouver is contributing to fewer recreational and retirement home purchases in other markets, as homeowners face lower price/equity and difficulty selling their properties. Sluggishness in Alberta’s economy is likely curtailing recreational sales in the interior, with the speculation tax negatively impacting recreational purchases and pushing sales out of the larger market and into smaller rural communities.”

He told Glacier Media, “The slowing of the market in Metro Vancouver means that homeowners feel a little less wealthy, especially if they have detached homes, and that in turn will lower demand for secondary homes in other market. These markets are all interrelated.”

Housing starts

Yu said that housing starts are also expected to decline, as this is another trend that tends to lag resale figures.

“Year-to-date housing starts are pretty level with what they were last year, which is kind of a surprise. But when we’re looking at presale numbers, or lack thereof, and how historically presales react to the resale market, we’re convinced that this will lead to a decline in new housing units going forward. Looking at the market, I can imagine a lot of developers are going to be a little wary of starting new projects.”

Copyright © Western Investor

New website informs buyers of homes’ last sold price

Wednesday, May 29th, 2019

Website gives details of last sold price of houses and condos

Steve Randall
The Vancouver Sun

A new website has launched in Canada which aims to give homebuyers greater information about their potential new home.

HonestDoor.com claims a Canadian first in giving details of the last sold price of all houses and condos. It is initially only available in Edmonton but has national expansion ahead, with Calgary, Winnipeg, and Vancouver among its key targets.

“HonestDoor was born out of my own frustration when searching for properties to buy,” said Dan Belostotsky, founder and CEO of HonestDoor. “It seemed wrong that consumers didn’t have access to the information they needed to make informed decisions when this information had been available to Americans for years.

The free resource allows users to find:

  • Last sold price of a property (residential and commercial)
  • HonestDoor Price – the latest price estimate for a property
  • Neighbourhood growth rate
  • Annual property taxes on the property
  • Permit data
  • Transaction history

 “Now, Edmontonians can find that information at their leisure and free of any pressure to make quick decisions,” said Belostotsky.

The site uses machine learning and the expertise of a team of data scientists at the University of Alberta and the price tool changes pricing every day or as variables dictate, using the latest data and inputs to provide the most accurate price estimate.

Copyright © 2019 Key Media Pty Ltd

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement

Wednesday, May 29th, 2019

BCREA
BCREA

The Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the slowdown over the past two quarters was temporary and growth should pick up beginning in the second quarter of 2019. On inflation, the Bank expects that both total CPI and core inflation will remain near its 2 per cent target in coming months. Overall, the Bank judges its current level of monetary accommodation as appropriate. Slow growth in the first half of 2019, the result of reductions in Alberta oil production, global trade uncertainty and the continued impacts of the B20 stress test, has likely pushed out any possibility of further tightening by the Bank of Canada into next year at the earliest. In fact, if financial markets are to be believed, the Bank may have missed its chance to return its policy rate to its preferred or “neutral” level and the next move may even be a rate cut. Canadian mortgage rates have responded strongly to revised market expectations for Canadian monetary policy, with 5-year mortgage rates falling back to 2017 levels. Those lower rates are already providing a boost to sales in May and should continue to do so through the summer.

Mixed-use developments in Metro Vancouver are ripe for investment

Wednesday, May 29th, 2019

Urban enclaves near transit a good investment

Ephraim Vecina
REP

Large-scale developments in Metro Vancouver offer multiple opportunities across a diverse range of asset classes, according to Avison Young’s latest market analysis.

In particular, mixed-use developments – also known as “urban enclaves” – situated near rapid transit lines and other public transport routes have proven quite attractive to investment capital.

“Metro Vancouver and its constituent municipalities have encouraged developers to build along transit corridors and allowed higher densities at development sites that had long been established as commercial retail nodes such as regional malls,” Avison Young explained.

These districts are slated to become even more important, considering the dearth of developable land in Vancouver.

“As land prices have risen and the availability of development sites declined, investor interest has grown exponentially in the redevelopment of typical low-rise shopping centres and the adjacent surface parking lots that form a substantial part of most traditional car-centred regional malls,” Avison Young noted.

Such pockets of reliability and stability can help offset what the Bank of Canada deemed as “pronounced imbalances” in the largest markets brought about by foreign investors.

“Froth from rising expectations of house price growth has declined in housing markets in the Toronto and Vancouver areas over the past two years. While the Toronto market appears to be stabilizing, prices and resale activity continue to decline in Vancouver,” the BoC stated in mid-May.

“Households in British Columbia and Ontario have the highest median net worth, and their net worth is more concentrated in housing. These provinces also have the most pronounced imbalances in their housing markets, partially due to investor activity, and are the most indebted as measured by the ratio of household debt to income.”

Copyright © 2019 Key Media Pty Ltd

Equitable Bank Q1 growth supported by alternative lending activity

Wednesday, May 29th, 2019

Alternative and prime single-family mortgages grew 15% and 48%

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

During the first quarter of the year, Equitable Bank achieved its highest market share so far in the Canadian lending space, fuelled by significant growth in its alternative mortgage business.

The bank’s Q1 market share stood at 6.3%, according to a CMT analysis of recent Bank of Canada data. This came off from a year of exceptional growth, as the institution’s share went up by 190 basis points in the 12 months ending March 2019.

During the quarter, “alternative and prime single-family mortgages grew 15% and 48%, respectively,” CEO Andrew Moor told CMT.

A similar phenomenon was also observed in First National Financial Corporation’s Q1 performance. Alternative mortgage borrowing in Ontario propelled the company’s numbers during the quarter.

First National’s Q1 originations stood at $3.0 billion, down from the $3.4 billion during the same time a year ago. Among the most significant declines were in new single-family originations, which fell from $2.2 billion to $1.8 billion this year.

On the other hand, total mortgage renewals were at $1.3 billion by Q1 2019, compared to last year’s $1.2 billion. Single-family renewals were at $916 million, from $1.1 billion the year prior.

“Looking at our business regionally, single-family volumes in Eastern Canada were almost on par with last year, but this was due to the contribution made by our ‘Excalibur’ program, which addresses the Ontario alternative mortgage market,” executive vice president Moray Tawse said.

Copyright © 2019 Key Media

Current policy regime is stifling BC home resales – analysis

Wednesday, May 29th, 2019

Analysis found home sales down 40% since the beginning of 2019

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

Stricter government policies on housing have proved to be a potent factor pulling down resale demand in BC, according to Vancouver’s Central 1 Credit Union.

A combination of B-20, which cut off purchasing power by 20%, and the BC government’s 20% foreign buyers’ tax pushed capital holders to less hostile markets elsewhere in Canada.

The firm’s analysis found that home sales in the province dramatically fell by 40% since the end of 2018. Currently, the market is characterized by hopeful buyers discouraged by costs, and potential sellers waiting on the margins for a market recovery.

Even a robust provincial economy will not be enough to turn things around. Residential property transactions are estimated to further decrease by 11% this year, Central 1 deputy chief economist Bryan Yu said.

A mild rebound might follow soon after, offering a glimmer of hope for the struggling market.

“We’re probably hitting a bottom,” Yu told The Canadian Press. “We will probably be heading up at some point in 2019. It’s not going to get much worse than this.”

Yu noted, however, that the report did not look at the possible effects of money laundering. Finance Minister Carole James previously said that dirty money could have “distorted” the Metro Vancouver housing market by around 20%.

“These were model-driven numbers based on international numbers and I would say very little localized information,” Yu said. “It seems to me we’re really still searching for those numbers and trying to get a better grasp of them.”

The results of a recently released government report indicated that money laundering pushed BC’s home prices up by approximately 5% last year.

Copyright © 2019 Key Media

B-20 will kill $8b worth of new low-rise construction in 2019

Wednesday, May 29th, 2019

Q1 of 2019 saw an 8% decline in new home construction

Neil Sharma
Mortgage Broker News

B-20 is expected to kill $8 billion worth of new low-rise construction activity this year.

According to a Mortgage Professionals Canada study, there was an 8% decline in new home construction investment through the first quarter of 2019 when compared to the average between 2015 and 2017. Condominiums have been particularly hot since January 2018 when B-20 took effect while the low-rise sector concurrently dropped—the study determined it’s fallen 25% through Q1-2019.

Will Dunning, the housing economist who wrote the report, told the Globe and Mail that economic fundamentals are strong and couldn’t possibly be the reason for declining housing construction.

“This construction activity should now be expanding, not contracting,” he said.

Dunning didn’t intentionally study the B-20 impact, but he estimates it has would explain as much as half of the decline in new construction investment.

The report also stated that investment in the condominium sector will begin falling by the end of this year and become especially pronounced by 2021. The current condo construction cycle is the result of presales that preceded B-20’s implementation at the beginning of last year.

The report also surmised renovation construction could be hit as well, and, combined with all residential construction, that could be between $20-25 billion in lost investment and up to 200,000 jobs eliminated.

“The jobs impact that have occurred so far might just be one-tenth of the eventual total,” said Dunning’s report. “The economic adjustments have barely begun, and they will take a long time to play out.”

The report also surmised that, worst-case scenario, B-20 will be the impetus for a severe recession because homeowners will lose home equity.

The report comes at an interesting time. Virtually all sectors of the real estate industry have been exerting pressure on the government to amend, if not altogether rescind, B-20. Mortgage Professionals Canada, for its part, has called for a 75 basis point stress test instead of the full 2%, but the government has dug its heels in. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation last week sent a letter to the Standing Committee on Finance imploring the government to stay the course and not cave into demands for a more lenient stress test.

Copyright © 2019 Key Media

Montreal-based Lightspeed is writing a new chapter in Canadian tech story

Tuesday, May 28th, 2019

Lightspeed is writing a new chapter in the Canadian tech story

Kevin Carmichael
The Vancouver Sun

The Canadian Establishment needed some new blood. On March 8, it got some, when Montreal-based Lightspeed POS Inc. debuted on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Lightspeed’s shares closed 20 per cent higher, putting an exclamation point on the most successful initial public offering by a Canadian technology company in almost a decade. The surge pushed Lightspeed’s market value to about $1.7 billion, comfortably unicorn status. It also marked the arrival of Dax Dasilva, the founder and chief executive, as a national figure.

 If you haven’t heard of him yet, you will.

“We’re in a new moment for the company,” Dasilva told me in an interview at the C2 conference in Montreal last week. “I’m in a new moment as a leader and I think that comes with a big responsibility to your tech ecosystem, to our small-business customers, to all of our customers, but also as a thought leader.”

There is something good happening in Canadian tech. But that’s not always a satisfying story, as it lacks protagonists. Shopify Inc. is a legitimate world beater, and probably the only digital-economy company that a casual reader of the Canadian business pages could name.

Lightspeed, which sells point-of-sale software for restaurants and smaller retailers in about 100 countries, will help the narrative.

Dasilva could have exited early like so many other founders. He scrounged money together for seven years and then partnered with venture capitalists to achieve scale. When the VCs wanted out, he negotiated a path to an IPO rather than sell to a bigger company.

He broke with convention again by listing only in Toronto, ignoring warnings that the decision would alienate international investors. Lightspeed raised $240 million, almost twice as much as Ottawa-based Shopify, which was valued at about $1 billion when it listed in Toronto and New York in 2015. Shopify’s market cap is now around $42 billion.

“I’ve had a lot of people in the ecosystem say that our IPO has opened new possibilities to what our tech companies are able to aspire to,” said Dasilva, who will host his first earnings call with analysts and investors on May 30. “We build these companies in Canada and then they evaporate as they get acquired by American or Asian companies,” he said. “I think we’ve reached a stage of maturity with our ecosystems that there’s growth capital available now, not just venture capital, but growth capital.”

A popular subject on the conference circuit these days, whether in Davos at the World Economic Forum, in Washington at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund, or in Montreal at C2, is diversity and inclusive growth.

The thinking is that economic and corporate policies must be adjusted to offset capitalism’s tendency to reinforce existing power structures at the exclusion of women and minorities. Grandees say from the stage that failure to change will cause confidence in the economic system to further erode, entrenching political instability. Companies and institutions that continue to populate their executive suites with white men from American and European business schools will suffer from having too many blind spots to keep up in a fast changing world.

It’s an attractive theory, save for one thing: its main advocates tend to be rich and/or powerful white people. They know little to nothing of what they speak.

Dasilva is a believer in the power of diversity, and he is a more authentic spokesman for the cause than many of its advocates in the Canadian liberal elite.

He is the son of Goan parents who fled to Canada as refugees from Idi Amin’s Uganda in 1972. He was born in Vancouver; came out as gay in his teens while attending an all-boys Irish Catholic high school; participated in the protests at Clayoquot Sound that saved the old-growth rainforests from clear cutting; attended the University of British Columbia, where he studied religion and art history while doing computer work on the side; and then moved to Montreal in 2001 at 24 years of age.

In 2005, he started Lightspeed and converted to Judaism. The original Lightspeed team was from the LGBTQ community. As he added people, Dasilva put an emphasis on ensuring he had a mix of backgrounds. He thinks it made the company stronger. You have to work harder to get an idea approved by a diverse table; if you succeed, the idea probably is a good one. All that arguing helped Lightspeed develop a “stronger sense of self,” which helped Dasilva and other executives push back against investors with “strong opinions” about how the company should be run.

“We looked at difference as a teacher,” Dasilva said.

Now, Dasilva plans to do some teaching. Earlier this year, he published Age of Union, a partial memoir that evolves into an explanation of his thinking about leadership, spirituality, and the environment.

He also appears ready to involve himself in economic policy.

Because size is an advantage in tech, and Canada is relatively small, governments will have to be a partner, Dasilva said. So far, they have been, he said, although he urged them to “stay attentive to the fact that we are competing globally for talent.”

I asked Dasilva if he was talking about taxes, a sensitive subject with the current federal government and in his home province. He demurred.

“We have to stay vigilant and we have to find ways to outdo our competition, outdo the U.S.,” Dasilva said.

© 2019 Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.

Economist forecasts stability to return to Metro Vancouver’s detached housing market

Tuesday, May 28th, 2019

Economist says stability will return to Metro detached market

David Carrigg
The Province

Metro Vancouver detached home prices should stabilize later this year but condo prices will continue to fall, according to the deputy chief economist of Central 1 Credit Union.

“We expect to see some stabilization by the end of this year, we are going to see those prices stabilize,” Bryan Yu said of detached homes in Metro that have plunged in value since 2016.

However, condo prices, which started falling after detached prices, will keep going down.

“If we look at where the market has already declined, it’s been in the detached market up to this point,” Yu said. He said with more condo complexes coming on the market, downward pressure on prices will continue.

He said the market for detached homes will stabilize faster than for condos because prices in the detached segment have been dripping for a longer time.

Central 1 released its Resale Market Housing Outlook 2019-2021 on Tuesday morning.

The report, written by Yu, said the Metro real estate slump is not related to the economy, which is expanding. Instead, it is being driven by government policy at all three levels of government. The federal government has put in place stress tests for new buyers, meaning they have to be able to afford payments at a higher interest rate than the rate on offer. The provincial government has increased its foreign-buyers tax to 20 per cent, forcing more foreign investors away from Vancouver housing, while the City of Vancouver has introduced a tax on high-value homes that are left vacant.

Yu led the report with this statement: “Hope for a better year for B.C.’s housing market were dashed early as the culmination of federal and provincial policies continued to weigh heavily on demand.”

He said the market is particularly bad in Metro Vancouver, while Vancouver Island is doing OK and in Northern B.C. the market is rising.

“Housing prices remain firm outside Metro Vancouver,” Yu wrote. “Inventories remain low on Vancouver Island which continues to support price levels. Larger markets in the Okanagan are drifting lower. Northern B.C. prices are generally rising with strong momentum in areas tied to liquefied natural gas.”

He found that Northern B.C. housing prices would continue to rise faster than in the rest of the province over the next two years.

Yu said interest rates were expected to remain low and steady during the 2019-2021 study period.

According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s monthly report for April, “reduced demand and increased supply remain the trend across Metro Vancouver’s housing market.” This had led to an 11 per cent fall in the benchmark price of a detached home over the past year to $1.425 million, and a 6.9 per cent drop in benchmark price for an apartment to $657,000.

© 2019 Postmedia Network Inc.