Archive for January, 2020

TREB is now TRREB as real estate board gets a makeover

Tuesday, January 28th, 2020

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board replaces TREB

Steve Randall
REP

A major name in Canadian real estate has a new name and look after a brand refresh.

Toronto Real Estate Board has become Toronto Regional Real Estate Board this week, with a new logo and colour scheme along with its new name.

“The icon in the new logo is meant to represent Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Members as a unified force for positive (upward) movement of growth in the real estate profession. It showcases the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board as a progressive and transformative force in the industry,” said TREB President Michael Collins.

Since 2002, the Board has had a regional nature and the name reflects this wider geographical focus.

The new logo includes 15 circles, each of a different size which aims to create a sense of movement and momentum while also suggesting a built form.

“The new tagline, ‘Professionals connecting people, property and communities’ speaks volumes about who the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Members are and what the organization is,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board CEO John DiMichele. “Above all, the new tagline emphasizes the professionalism of our Members. It puts their good name first by highlighting what our Members do – they build communities and help people find their dream homes.”

The Board has 56,000 Realtor members.

Copyright © 2020 Key Media Pty Ltd

Vancouver amongst world’s most expensive markets

Tuesday, January 28th, 2020

Vancouver’s housing market maintained its position as the second most expensive in the world

Gerv Tacadena
Canadian Real Estate Wealth

Vancouver’s housing market maintained its position as the second most expensive in the world, according to the latest edition of the Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.

Vancouver came in second to Hong Kong, which retained its position as the least affordable housing market across the globe.

“Vancouver had already developed severely unaffordable housing, which has been associated with its urban containment policy, adopted more than four decades ago. Vancouver has experienced significant housing affordability deterioration among major markets,” the study said.

Toronto also cracked the list, placing sixth. It was tagged by the study as “severely unaffordable.” The worsening housing affordability in Toronto could have stemmed from the adoption of the urban containment policy in the mid-2000s, according to the study.

The study said Toronto has the second-worst housing bubble risk in the world, worse than Hong Kong and Vancouver.

“The province of Ontario imposed a foreign buyers tax in 2017. Since that time, Toronto’s house prices have become less volatile, especially in more expensive housing. However, housing affordability in Toronto has continued to deteriorate at the middle of the market,” the study said.

Below is the list of the 10 least affordable metropolitan housing markets in the world according to the Demographia study:

Least Affordable Housing Market List:

  1. Hong Kong (China)
  2. Vancouver, BC (Canada)
  3. Sydney, NSW (Australia)
  4. Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
  5. Los Angeles, CA (United States)
  6. Toronto, ON (Canada)
  7. Auckland (New Zealand)
  8. San Jose, CA (United States)
  9. San Francisco, CA (United States)
  10. London (United Kingdom)

Interestingly, Canada also has the most affordable market in the world, with Fort MacMurray in Alberta at the top of the list. Two more Canadian metropolitan markets cracked the top 10: Fredericton and Saint John, both in New Brunswick.

Most Affordable Housing Market List:

  1. Fort MacMurray, AB (Canada)
  2. Peoria, IL (United States)
  3. Davenport, IA-IL (United States)
  4. Rockford, IL (United States)
  5. Utica-Rome, NY (United States)
  6. Akron, OH (United States)
  7. Fredericton, NB (Canada)
  8. McAllen, TX (United States)
  9. Saint John, NB (Canada)
  10. Syracuse, NY (United States)

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BCREA report forecasts increased sales, prices for 2020

Tuesday, January 28th, 2020

Moderate growth for the provincial housing market in 2020

Clayton Jarvis
Canadian Real Estate Wealth

In its first quarter forecast, the British Columbia Real Estate Association projects moderate growth for the provincial housing market in 2020. Led by returns to average levels of activity for Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, sales in BC are expected to increase a robust 10.3 percent this year, coinciding with a 4.8 percent improvement in the average MLS sales price.

While sales in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are expected to rise by 18.8 and 12.4 percent, respectively, only one other real estate board, Victoria, is predicted to see an improvement of more than 5 percent. Price growth in most areas of the province is forecast to be modest, with only three – Vancouver Island, the Fraser Valley and BC Northern – showing the potential for an increase of more than three percent.

The numbers don’t jump off the page, but their upward trajectory points to the enduring appeal of B.C. real estate and the strong fundamentals supporting the provincial economy, a fact many in the province are quick to point out. A commonly held belief in British Columbia is that it wasn’t a lack of economic activity or population growth that slowed the BC housing market; it was a bevy of new taxes and lending restrictions that shocked the market into paralysis.

The effects of those changes are now fading, only slightly behind schedule.

“We did quite a bit of research on what happens when the CMHC or the Department of Finance changes mortgage rules or makes mortgage regulations more strict,” says BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson. “In the past, it’s had a pretty immediate impact: the peak of the impact is three to six months and by 12 to 15 months it’s faded away. We got that to a certain extent with B-20 [aka the mortgage “stress test”], except it was much deeper than any of those other policies and it took a lot longer to turn the corner.”

Now that consumers have had a chance to adjust to the new landscape, Sam Hanson, CEO of South Street Property Group, says they are more than ready to get back into the market.

“We’re very optimistic about the next two to three years in the residential markets in B.C.,” Hanson says. “People are moving here. People are creating jobs here. People are setting up high tech businesses here. Prices are more attractive than they were a year ago and people are now able to step up and justify their purchases.”

Most economic indicators are pointing in the right direction. BCREA projects GDP growth of 2.4 percent in 2020, along with strong growth in wages, employment and retail sales. But housing supply will continue to be an issue. Housing starts were at a record high in 2019, but they are expected to shed 16.1 percent in 2020 and a further 8.5 percent in 2021.

“I think the province will always play catch-up,” in terms of housing supply Hanson says. The natural bounty that makes B.C. such a desirable place to live – the ocean, the lakes, the mountains, fertile agricultural land, etc. – also limits the amount of available real estate. “We see development, of course, but it’s basically infill development within the confines of an area.”

“We’re going to be somewhat undersupplied as long as demand continues to recover,” says Ogmundson, “especially over the next five to 10 years, with a lot of the millennial cohort aging into their prime household forming years. There’s not going to be a lot of supply to match demand, so I think we could have some tightening of markets.”

Shrinking supply, growing demand and a healthy economy fuelled the last housing boom in B.C. No one appears to have the appetite for another one, but if that’s all that’s being served up in 2020, investors may have no choice but to dig in. 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media Pty Ltd

Vancouver eyes better amenities without impacting housing costs

Monday, January 27th, 2020

The City’s Community Amenity Contribution (CAC) Policy has being updated

Steve Randall
Canadian Real Estate Wealth

The City of Vancouver wants to ensure greater and efficacy of a key development contribution policy without adding burden to housing costs and taxpayers.

Community Amenity Contributions are in-kind or cash contributions provided by property developers as part of the rezoning process, which grants an increase in development potential or a change in the permitted uses of a site. 

Some of the funding for parks, libraries, childcare facilities and affordable housing come from these contributions.

The City’s Community Amenity Contribution (CAC) Policy has being updated to increase equity and add a city-wide framework for all community investments.

“Making these amenity investments more transferable will help our fastest growing communities secure the infrastructure they need in their neighbourhoods,” said Mayor Kennedy Stewart. “This developer contribution model also ensures that we are not impacting housing costs or adding an additional burden on taxpayers to support the many amenities we need.”

The CAC policy includes 5 key updates:

  1. CACs will allocate development contributions to the following important public benefits: Affordable housing; Childcare; Transportation; Community facilities; Public safety; Parks and open spaces; Arts and culture; and Heritage conservation.
  2. CAC’s will continue to be prioritized in the neighborhood in which the rezoning takes place, but will now incorporate a more portable, equitable approach by investing in public benefits that extend beyond a particular area so that more residents can enjoy them.
  3. The City is introducing the possibility to allow applicants to defer a portion of cash CACs valued over $20 million, to make it easier to pay over time.
  4. Consistent with current practice, the City will not refund previously approved cash CACs or alter in-kind CACs following a public hearing. In-kind CACs may only be altered through the resubmission of a new rezoning application.
  5. Ownership of in-kind CACs by non-profit, indigenous, and governments will be introduced, subject to specific legal conditions.

Copyright © 2020 Key Media Pty Ltd

More data, more problems: Canadian execs unsure about data

Monday, January 27th, 2020

Financial companies are quickly amassing vast volumes of data, but executives are increasingly challenged by the fractured nature of existing systems

Kimberly Greene
Mortgage Broker News

Almost all financial services executives are challenged by high volumes of data, but continue to ramp up their data collection despite it being difficult to put that data to its highest and best use.

Banks and financial institutions have had access to data and analytics surrounding that data for decades. However, with the growing amounts of data available—mobile data, clickstream data, voice data, call centre data—new opportunities abound in the marketplace.

Matt Fabian, is the director of financial services research and consulting for TransUnion Canada, and said that today, financial executives are asking what learnings and insights can be gained from additional data that they didn’t have before or didn’t know what to do with before. More importantly, do those new insights help frame a better customer experience, better product design, or better service? Can operational costs be saved?

The integration of data is almost table stakes these days, Fabian added. The Amazon effect has taken hold on every aspect of consumer behaviour, and everyone expects mobility, agility, and easy accessibility when it comes to accessing their own information. 

“To enable that, you need to make faster decisions better,” Fabian said. It’s just the nature of how banking, insurance, and other financial services are evolving, and understanding data points has become critical in understanding the customer experience.

In October, TransUnion commissioned a study exploring the challenges faced by financial services and insurance industries. Canadian executives have a mixed outlook on how they’re implementing AI and machine learning into their models and analytical solutions. On one hand, Canadian execs feel that they’re in a pretty good position to capitalize on increased use of artificial intelligence (AI). On the other hand, the majority of those surveyed don’t feel as if they can handle the new data.

Financial institutions have been focused on investing and incubating advanced analytics for a while now, often through their own innovation-type labs. Despite the numerous tools and their disposal that can perform machine learning and complex analytics. The challenge, Fabian says, is the data.

“You can have the best modeling software, the best cognitive neural networking algorithms in the world, and if you don’t have either the volume or the type of data for the models to be able to take advantage of it, you become a little bit more limited,” he said.

Where executives are really expressing concern is their ability to integrate the data. Many banks utilize decades-old limited legacy systems that are on longer, more predictive cycles. Even though institutions are now obtaining vast amounts of data at breakneck speed, this fresh data can’t necessarily integrate into their older systems and companies aren’t necessarily able to respond quickly.

New fintech companies are emerging that promise to help companies with this very problem. But when you’re steering a big ship, Fabian said, it’s that much harder to turn it around, and in this case, it’s also much more expensive.

“It’s a massive investment. It’s tens to hundreds of millions of dollars for a national bank to flip around all their old legacy systems, and at the same time, you can’t just turn the old ones off because the lights have to stay on,” Fabian said. “They’re all working away at it. It’s going to take a while. Some are farther ahead than others.”

Financial institutions are also susceptible for mergers and acquisitions over time, which compounds the issue because some systems get integrated with each other and others remain because they’re working well for their individual purpose. That is changing, however, as more formalized roles and teams around data analytics, strategy, and governance become commonplace. Canadian executives are understanding this, as the Aite Group study revealed that they’re constantly trying to work toward a long-term strategy regarding data as opposed to upgrading and managing tools bought for specific uses.

It’s not only fintech companies that are moving in to capitalize on the stoic nature of banks and lending institutions; alternative lenders are starting to fill voids, Fabian said. Being smaller and perhaps nimbler than traditional lenders, these companies are determining whether more data can help them be smarter regarding clients that the banks have ignored.

Fabian calls this segment of the industry ‘lendtech’: those who have technology and AI but are focused on lending and/or issuing credit. This is different from the fintechs that are more focused on operations; instead of competing with the banks, they want to form partnerships and use their own AI or machine learning algorithms to optimize the lender’s mortgage origination process.

From a lender perspective, the focus is on operations and becoming faster and nimbler in order to take advantage of increased amounts of data and create a better customer experience.

More data is always better, Fabian said, and open banking isn’t far off. This could create a lot of opportunities for brokers.

“It opens up the data sources and opens up [interfaces] to allow open access to all sorts of lender data,” Fabian said. “If you’re a broker that can partner with an AI company or build an AI company . . . all of a sudden you’re going to have access to unprecedented amounts of data potentially, and how does that change your business?”

Companies aren’t necessarily waiting for open banking to be formalized; they’re starting to get access to alternative data sources now. Brokers who are able to access that intelligence will be better armed to go out on behalf of their clients and get the best deals.

“It might not be formally regulated process but we’re going to start to see more and more of that come, and I think that’s something that anybody in the mortgage space is going to look at,” Fabian said. 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Significant price declines observable among Vancouver detached homes

Monday, January 27th, 2020

Despite accelerating sales and ever-tighter supply, the value of Vancouver’s detached housing is steadily declining

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

Despite accelerating sales and ever-tighter supply, the value of Vancouver’s detached housing is steadily declining, latest data from the regional real estate association indicated.

According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, the market saw a 72.1% annual increase in detached real estate sales in December, for a total of 599 transactions. However, this was 27.39% lower on a monthly basis, and 2.76% below Vancouver’s 5-year median sales volumes for December.

Last month, the market saw 522 new detached listings, falling 50.52% from November and 2.61% from December 2018. Total inventory was at 3,941 active detached listings in December, dropping 17.65% from the month prior and lower by 19.59% annually.

Meanwhile, detached real estate prices in Greater Vancouver saw their benchmark prices shrink by 4% year-over-year, ending up at $1,423,500 in December. The decline was more acutely visible within the city, as detached benchmarks fell by 3.1% annually in Vancouver East (down to $1,390,100) and by 6.7% in Vancouver West (down to $2,588,900).

The situation was in marked contrast to Metro Vancouver’s rental market, which enjoyed significant growth in activity and value over the last year.

Per the CMHC’s last prediction in October, the city’s rental housing is expected to have a vacancy rate of 1.1% by the end of 2019, and two-bedroom average rent rates are forecast to settle at around $1,715 (from $1,649 in 2018).

“It’s a combination of issues that need to get fixed — not just in Vancouver but a lot of other [surrounding] municipalities,” LandlordBC chief executive David Hutniak told CBC News.

A spokesperson for CMHC reiterated that it is still “confident” in those predictions. These levels will place Metro Vancouver among the regions with the nation’s lowest vacancy rates and highest rents.

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Big tech fish migrating to ‘small pond’ Victoria

Friday, January 24th, 2020

Rising number of international companies are opening offices in B.C.’s capital

Tyler Orton
Western Investor

When Matt Celuszak’s London-based firm embarked on the hunt for a city in which to launch its global research centre for artificial intelligence, many global metropolises entered into the conversation.

But after passing on Melbourne and Singapore, the team at Element Human Ltd. decided on a city some might consider a little provincial: Victoria.

“We needed a place to camp where we could be big enough where we actually get noticed on the local scene,” said Celuszak, a Victoria native now based primarily in the U.K.

“When I walk into Vancouver, I’m competing with EA [gaming developer Electronic Arts Inc.]. If I walk into Victoria, who am I competing with? And when you’re in the talent acquisition [process] in a very small field of highly skilled operators, who you’re competing with plays a role.”

Greater Victoria’s reputation in the innovation sector has been on the ascent recently, climbing three spots year-over-year to rank as the country’s No. 7 technology hub, according to CBRE Group Inc.’s 2019 Scoring Canadian Tech Talent.

The report measured the size of the labour pool, employment growth, quality of labour, educational attainment and talent quality to cost, among other factors.

Before Element Human opened its Victoria office last August, it first considered the benefits of Canada more broadly, such as access to talent, progressive immigration policies and the ability to tap into the federal government’s Scientific Research and Experimental Development (better known as SR&ED or “shred”) tax incentive program.

“We’ve gone from being a small fish in a big pond to a big fish in a small pond,” said Joel Windels, chief marketing officer for Seattle-based software company NetMotion Software Inc.

His company opened a new Victoria office last fall, building a team of 16 workers with plans to have about two dozen workers on the roster by the end of 2020.

“Victoria is really booming for software development and the programming world,” said Windels, a Briton who relocated from Seattle to open the Victoria office. “Really quite senior and talented people are moving to the city.”

NetMotion faces hiring challenges in Seattle like those of tech companies in Vancouver, where giants like Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. can gobble up much of the talent.

To meet its growth objectives, the firm began looking at English-speaking jurisdictions in the same time zone that could meet its demand for talent.

This led to Victoria, where the tech workforce has grown 15.7 per cent over five years to 9,600 workers, according to the CBRE report.

More welcoming than U.S.

Windels added that Canada’s immigration policies have been more “welcoming” than those in the U.S., and NetMotion has moved two workers from the U.S. to the Victoria office since launch.

“Donald Trump has done us a great favour,” said Dan Gunn, executive director of the Victoria Innovation, Advanced Technology and Entrepreneurship Council.

But beyond immigration policies, Gunn said international companies relocating to the province’s capital have displayed an interest in having a more distributed workforce across the world.

“Globally, the entire world is short of high-skilled talent, and so places that have a quality of life and quality of opportunity advantage are going to attract more of those people,” he said.

“Very few of our companies are in competition with each other. So their willingness to support and help each other is higher than we’ve seen anywhere else.”

But Celuszak said challenges remain for the relatively small city.

“The market’s moving faster than I’d hoped,” he said, referring to the effort to hire talent.

“The reality is the market pool is so small that if I spend a lot of money to transplant people in, immediately they’re going to get attacked by everybody in market.”

Copyright © Western Investor

Developers paint bleak picture of Metro Vancouver’s future under status quo

Friday, January 24th, 2020

Region can embrace global status or become a “museum city,” says industry panel at forecast event

Joannah Connolly
Western Investor

Metro Vancouver is at a crucial fork in the road — does it become a global city, embracing change and growth, or does it continue down its current path and become a “museum city”?

At least, that was the perspective offered by a panel of real estate development leaders, speaking at a sold-out January 23 forecast event organized by the Urban Development Institute.

The key message from the panel was that the current status quo — characterized by demand-side policies, lack of collaboration between governments and the development industry, and continued demonization of housing and commercial development — would result in stunted growth and further supply and affordability problems.

Beau Jarvis, president of Wesgroup Properties, said, “If governments at all levels continue to develop policy in isolation and without truly engaging and listening to the private sector, whom they claim are their partners, we will not see the desired outcome in terms of achieving any level of affordability. If the federal government doesn’t start spending some of its billions in B.C., we won’t see those outcomes. If the province doesn’t start holding off on its demand-side measures and start implementing supply-side solutions — which was promised, by the way — we will continue to underbuild. If municipalities continue to develop policies that… undermine our ability to deliver housing, it will be the status quo.”

Jon Stovell, president and CEO of Reliance Properties, described the current situation as “a city of two tales.” He suggested there could be one outcome in which Metro Vancouver embraces change, economic expansion, physical growth, and international investment and immigration, and another in which the region stays on its current path and becomes a “museum city” where NIMBYism and protectionism is put ahead of supply and growth.

Chuck We, senior VP for Western Canada at international commercial landlord Hudson Pacific Properties, talked about the 50 million square feet of additional office space that would be needed in the City of Vancouver by 2050, largely driven by technology growth. Such a large amount of space would require 10 office building booms such as the recent boom creating five million square feet, over the next 30 years. This is a tall order, but not impossible, We told Glacier Media.

He told the 1,200-strong audience, “This wave of technology is creating unprecedented opportunity. We can either embrace it, or, if we keep moving the way we are, it will find a home somewhere else. We are ahead of the curve, but we need to stay ahead of it.” We added to Glacier Media after the event, “We need to keep the momentum going — the pace that we’re building at needs to be maintained.”

We’s cautious optimism was dashed by Stovell, who said, “There’s a real concern that we’re seeing all these tech workers coming in, and they love Vancouver and the lifestyle, but where the hell is everybody going to live? I cannot for the life of me understand why, for example, when you’ve got 7,000 or 8,000 Amazon workers coming to downtown Vancouver over the next few years, that a developer has to fight tooth and nail to get a rental building permit approved. Why can’t we build an office tower in downtown Vancouver that has a higher density with 10 storeys of rental on the top? People could take the elevator to work and not clog up the streets. There’s just such a lack of imagination.”

However, Stovell also had some words of cautious optimism, ending his opening remarks by saying, “But there is hope. [Supply advocates]’ resistance, haphazard at first, is becoming organized. A consistent chorus of the need for an extreme increase in supply is increasingly being heard on social and mainstream media, and even in some halls of government. A land use revolution is at hand. Generations of younger Metro Vancouverites are rising to demand reasonably priced housing, work spaces and recreational spaces.”

The forecast event was held on the same day that the British Columbia Real Estate Association released an updated outlook for residential resales in 2020. Across B.C., home sales on the MLS are predicted to rise 10.3 per cent this year, compared with 2019, and the average sale price in B.C. this year will increase 4.8 per cent. In Metro Vancouver, resale activity is expected to jump 18.8 per cent year over year, and prices will rise a more modest 2.4 per cent, said the BCREA.

For the BCREA’s full report, including forecasts for sales and prices in your B.C. region, click here.

Copyright © Western Investor

Canadian Retail Sales (Nov) – Jan 24, 2020

Friday, January 24th, 2020

Seasonally-adjusted Canadian retail sales rose by 0.9%

BCREA

Seasonally-adjusted Canadian retail sales rose by 0.9% in November to $51.5 billion, driven by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, and at food and beverage stores. This marks the strongest monthly increase since March 2019 (1.3%). Higher sales were reported in 6 of 11 sub-sectors, representing 70% of retail sales. 

Regionally, 6 of 10 provinces reported increases in November, led by Ontario (1.6%) and Quebec (1.4%). In contrast, retail sales in Alberta continue to trend downward (-0.9%).

In B.C., seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose by 1.1% to $7.2 billion in November, driven by increased sales at electronic, home furnishing and clothing stores. Vancouver also reported a monthly increase of 1.2% in sales. Compared to the same time last year, B.C. retail sales were up by 0.6% in November

Fort MCMurrey is the world’s most affordable housing market with a 1.8 multiple ranking

Thursday, January 23rd, 2020

This Canadian city is the world’s most affordable housing market

Steve Randall
Canadian Real Estate Wealth

The Canadian oilsands city of Fort McMurray has topped a ranking of the world’s most affordable housing markets.

The Albertan city leads affordability in the 2020 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey which rates middle-income housing affordability using the “Median Multiple,” which is the median house price divided by the median household income; a score of 2 would mean it takes twice the median income to afford a median-priced home.

Fort McMurray with a median multiple of 1.8 ranks highly following economic disruption in recent years as oil prices and investment have tumbled. Two New Brunswick markets also make the top 10 for affordability, Fredericton and Saint John, both have a median multiple of 2.4.

Overall, the United States has the most affordable major housing markets with a nationwide median multiple of 3.9 followed by Canada at 4.4. For individual city markets with a score of 3 or less, the US has the top 10 major markets.

Among the other markets included, the UK and Singapore each have a median multiple of 4.6, Australia 6.9, and China-Hong Kong an eyewatering 20.8.

Among the 79 severely unaffordable markets (score of 5.1 or above), most are in the United States (29), Canada (18) and Australia (14).

These include Toronto with a median multiple of 8.9 and is the 7th least affordable overall, up from 15th last year to become less affordable that cities such as San Francisco and London (UK). Vancouver has a median multiple of 12.6.

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