Townhomes at The Oak a ‘nature-inspired project’

Kathleen Freimond
The Province

Residents of The Oak, a collection of 16 townhomes in the heart of Vancouver’s Marpole neighbourhood, will benefit from its location close to the area’s many amenities while they will also appreciate the residential setting of the nature-inspired project, says developer Harp Lalli, principal of Triton Group.

Construction has started on the site of the two- and three-bedroom homes at the corner of Oak Street and Park Drive with completion scheduled for fall 2021, says Lalli.

“At The Oak, we are building homes that are comparable in square footage and layout to single-family homes aimed at small and young families who want to live on the West Side of Vancouver without paying the price of a detached home,” says Lalli.

“A typical detached home is often about 2,200 square feet, and some of our units are about 1,750 square feet, so we’re really trying to cater to families who want the additional space without the headaches that go with a single-family residence,” he adds.

The development comprises three buildings that form a functional courtyard. There are five homes along Park Drive, a building with four units along the lane and a building with seven homes facing Oak Street. The courtyard will be landscaped with pavers and include shrubs (some in signature concrete planters) to reflect the influence of nearby Oak Park.

The five-hectare Oak Park offers a range of recreational amenities such as tennis courts and a water spray park for those hot summer days in addition to pathways for relaxed walks and picnic areas.

Lalli believes The Oak’s location is one of the development’s major assets.

“There is easy access to Richmond, YVR and it’s a 15 or 20-minute drive to downtown Vancouver,” he says, noting The Oak is conveniently situated to Marine Gateway, also the location of a SkyTrain station (on the Canada Line), and not far from Oakridge Centre.

The architecture, by Raymond Letkeman Architects, and interior design by Cristina Oberti, both showcase contemporary flair with a touch of traditional. Black-framed windows give the exteriors a modern appearance while the dormer windows and the brick accents are a nod to a time-honoured look.

Inside, homebuyers can choose from two colour schemes, the lighter Oak palette, and Park, slightly darker with grey tones.

The two schemes include laminate floors in the entry, kitchen, dining and living areas with carpeting on the stairs and upper-level bedrooms.

“Both colour ranges have some warmth, and although they are contemporary, they still have a traditional feel,” says Lalli, noting the extensive use of marble-look tiles in the bathroom.

The white with grey veining porcelain floor and wall tiles combined with the quartz countertop, floating vanity, frameless glass shower enclosure and the marble mosaic shower base give the space a light and airy quality, he adds.

Special attention was paid to the lighting in the bathroom with LED strip lights under the cabinets and LED lights in the built-in mirrors. Lalli also notes that selecting all the fittings from the Kohler range – including the thermostatic wall mount faucet, undermount sinks, soaker tub and dual-flush toilet – gives the space a cohesive look.

“By not having too much contrast, the space looks elegant, very clean and has a calm [ambience],” he says.

In the kitchen, the Linea D’Italia Fiero cabinets are European designed while the countertops and the full-height backsplash are quartz. With its generous overhang to accommodate a few kitchen stools, the kitchen island has waterfall edges to enhance continuity in the space. Major appliances are by Bosch and include a 30-inch refrigerator with bottom freezer, a 30-inch gas cooktop and wall oven with hood fan and a 24-inch dishwasher (microwave is by Panasonic). In keeping with the design selections in the bathroom, the undermount sink and the polished chrome pullout faucet are by Kohler.

Lalli says that while the interiors are contemporary with a hint of traditional, they are designed to provide buyers with a neutral enough backdrop to enable them to furnish and decorate their homes in their own style.

The Oak is served with one level of underground parking where each homeowner has one parking space (additional spaces are available) that includes an electric vehicle charger. There is also a dog-wash station – to clean up after walks in the nearby park – and most homes have basement storage space.

Bearing in mind the young families who will likely make The Oak their home, Lalli notes the many nearby schools and the extensive offerings – everything from programs to appeal to seniors, child daycare and sports such as table tennis and martial arts – at the Marpole Oakridge Community Centre. Schools include Sir Winston Laurier Elementary, Sir Winston Churchill Secondary, while Langara College is also close by.

With residents expected to enjoy the outdoor space – back and front patios and roof decks off the master bedroom – the natural gas hookups on the main level patios make barbecues and al fresco dining an easy option for the long days of summer.

The presentation centre is open by appointment.

Project: The Oak

Project address: 7858 Oak St., Vancouver

Developer: Triton Group

Architect: Raymond Letkeman Architects Inc.

Interior designer: Cristina Oberti Interior Design Inc.

Project size: 16 townhomes

Bedrooms: 3-bedroom and 3-bedroom plus den homes remaining

Price: $1,795,000 to $2,199,900

Sales centre hours: By appointment

Phone: 604-398-5588

Website: tritongroup.ca

© 2020 Postmedia Network Inc

St. Paul’s site sold to Concord Pacific

Scott Brown
The Province

The St. Paul’s Hospital site on Burrard Street in Downtown Vancouver has been sold for nearly $1 billion to developer Concord Pacific.

Providence Health Care, which operates the hospital, says the money will be put toward the construction of the new St. Paul’s Hospital and other facilities at the Jim Pattison Medical Centre, which is expected to open in 2026 next to the Via Rail station.

The current hospital will continue to operate until the new hospital is operational.

Providence says its spending will be the largest non-governmental contribution to a capital health-care project in B.C. and, likely, Canada.

St. Paul’s Foundation has committed to raising $125 million for the new $1.9-billion hospital, with $75 million of that coming from a 2017 donation from B.C. billionaire Jim Pattison.  The provincial government is spending $1.158 billion on the project, while the rest will come from proceeds of the Burrard land sale.

Dr. Jeff Pike, the physician lead on the St. Paul’s redevelopment project, says surplus money from the sale of the current hospital will be used to fund auxiliary construction on the new False Creek Flats campus.

“To be frank, ($1.9 billion) will cover just the cost of the core hospital. There are other buildings that are also a tremendous interest to our patient population, specifically the clinical support and research centre,” said Pike. “The master plan of the campus sort of outlines what could be there including an innovation park, perhaps a hotel, perhaps a First Nations health and wellness centre. 

“What I can say with absolute certainty is that 100 per cent of the proceeds from the sale on behalf of Providence Health Care Society is going to the new campus and new hospital.”

As for what will be built on the Burrard Street site, Concord Pacific vice-president Peter Webb says the company hasn’t figured that out.

The company, which has managed the former Expo 86 site since 1988 when it purchased the one-third of a square kilometre False Creek property from the B.C. government for the bargain price of $145 million, has yet to draw up any plans or blueprints for the 26,700 square metre site of the old hospital.

“We will be working with the city and the public to determine what the best planning outcome for the project is. The physical attributes of that are as yet undetermined now,” said Webb, adding that the property’s existing zoning allows for about 1.9 million square feet of residential density and commercial development.

Because St. Paul’s is not a designated heritage site, Concord Pacific has no obligation to keep the current structure, but Webb says the historic nature of the building will require some sort of response.

“I imagine that through the process of working with the city and the heritage group within the city, we’ll ensure that the heritage element is accommodated for sure,” he said.

The current hospital was constructed in 1912-13 at a reported cost of $400,000. Over the years, it has grown with the addition of two wings and a pair of 10-storey towers.

NDP MLA Spencer Chandra-Herbert lamented the loss of St. Paul’s Hospital from the heart of his West End constituency.

“St. Paul’s has helped so many people I know. So many constituents work there. It’s part of the fabric of the West End,” Chandra-Herbert said Wednesday.

He has concerns around access to the new False Creek hospital site for the many seniors  and others who live in the West End and will have to travel further for appointments.

However, Pike said the century-old hospital, which was already showing its age before COVID-19 arrived, has proven to be a difficult workplace during the pandemic.

“Things like outbreak control and the ability to socially distance — even within stairwells — is very challenging in the current hospital,” he said. “So, the new hospital will address those things very well.”

Pike says construction could begin at the new hospital site by the end of this year or in early 2021.

Health Minister Adrian Dix said he is pleased the new St. Paul’s project is finally on track after years of delay under former Liberal governments.

“This was a project that was announced in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2016 without going anywhere,” Dix said. “What (the NDP government) has tried to do is systematically step-by-step do what’s necessary to build a new St. Paul’s, a St. Paul’s that Vancouver needs in the 21st century.”

With news of the sale, the Chanda-Herbert says he’ll be working to make sure affordable housing, child care and opportunities for employment are made priorities for the development on the old St. Paul’s site.

He said local businesses will feel it when the hospital is gone — as hospital employees spend money in the neighbourhood which helps independent businesses.

“We need more jobs downtown. The neighbourhood needs more affordable housing,” he said.

The St. Paul’s deal is one of only two sites to sell for a billion dollars in Vancouver. The other was the Bentall Centre office complex in downtown, which sold for $1.06 billion in 2016 to Anbang, a Chinese company. In 2019, Anbang sold the Bentall Centre for a reported $1.05 billion to two American firms, the Blackstone Group and Hudson Pacific.

© 2020 Postmedia Network Inc

Record low mortgage rates could last two years

Frank O’Brien
Western Investor

Trophy properties liven summer listings

Frank O’Brien
The Vancouver Sun

A dramatic Whistler lakefront chateau; a 2,300-acre ranch within the city of Vernon; and 90 acres on Texada Island among rare listings for those seeking an ultimate retreat or investment

Each summer Western Investor profiles some top trophy real estate listings in our August print edition – on newsstands now across Western Canada. The following are examples of what is available for buyers seeking an ultimate retreat from the pandemic, or a spectacular real estate investment.

Whistler lakefront

Chateau du Lac is one-of-a-kind 4.83-acre luxury estate nestled on lakefront at Whistler, B.C.’s largest mountain resort community.

This is 6,500 square feet of French chateau elegance balanced with a Provençal aesthetic, creating a luxury-mountain-retreat with warmth and comfort.

Chateau du Lac opens to a grand living space with floor to ceiling windows offering stunning Nita Lake and mountain views. A huge basalt and limestone fireplace create a welcoming setting in the living room, while a 10-person dining table and baby grand piano sets the tone for elegant dinners.

Listed by Collier International’s unique properties division, the estimated seven-to-eight-figure price will remain a secret between the agency and the fortunate buyer.

Sunshine Coast oceanfront

This extremely rare 80-acre premium oceanfront property covers six titles of land with close to one kilometre of low-bank waterfront. It features southern exposure with protected deep-water moorage potential.

“This is a legacy family property, or ideal for a corporate retreat,” said listing agent Jamie Zroback of LandQuest Realty. It is offered at $5.89 million.

Okanagan ranch

A huge swath of Vernon land that’s still relatively wild but within the city limits can be yours for a mere $28.8 million.

The 2,310-acre O’Keefe Range has been put on the market.

Colliers International agent Mark Lester said the land is ideal for someone with a vision for the huge piece of prime real estate above Bella Vista and Swan Lake.

Historic O’Keefe Ranch, north of Vernon, is a popular tourist spot and is owned by the City of Vernon. It is operated as a not-for-profit entity and is not part of the sale.

The range land was originally used to graze cattle from the ranch and sits on the plateau above Vernon’s Bella Vista neighbourhood.

Lester said there is a lot of potential for development in a parcel that includes several small lakes and spectacular views.

“About 300 acres is within the official community plan as the East Bella Vista neighbourhood,” said Lester. “That would allow for single-family to multi-family and some neighbourhood commercial uses.”

Existing zoning allows subdivision into 30-acre lots.

Vancouver Island

Terrace Beach Resort is a waterfront resort located in Ucluelet on the West Coast of Vancouver Island.

Offered for sale are 19 strata of 25 lots plus the management company which operates the rental pool. All suites include fully- equipped kitchenettes and many have hot tubs on private decks.

The Terrace Beach Resort is listed at $5.1 million.

“This property is ideal for a syndicated investor,” said listing agent Randi Clayton of Re/Max Nanaimo.

Visitors also enjoy year-round activities such as beach combing the miles of beaches that stretch to Tofino, plus hiking the world-renowned Wild Pacific Trail, all adjacent to the resort as well as fishing, kayaking, storm watching and eco-tours.

 

© Copyright 2020 Western Investor

Work-from-homers could shake office tower leasing

Frank O?Brien
Western Investor

A recent U.S. study showed a 47 percent productivity increase in 2020, despite the coronavirus lockdown and the ensuing increase in working from home.

 

There is a potential earthquake building that will shake downtown office towers across Canada – and office landlords could feel it as early as September.

The current bullish sentiment in the office real estate sector is that things will quickly return to normal when COVID-19 restrictions are eased this fall and people return to work.

“Predictions that the impacts from a global pandemic would fundamentally alter the dynamics of Metro Vancouver’s office market failed to materialize at mid-year 2020 as vacancy in the suburbs reached record lows and downtown Vancouver continued to post one of the tightest office vacancy rates in North America despite an initial wave of sublease vacancy,” Avison Young stated in its mid-year office market report, released August 5.

The report also noted, however, that take up of office space in downtown Vancouver went negative in the first half of 2020 for the first time since 2014, as more than 500,000 square feet of leased space was shoved back onto the market.

Evidence is mounting that, after six months of working from home, many workers will never come back to the office full time.

A July Gallup poll found that nearly 60 per cent of U.S. workers who have been working from home during the pandemic would prefer to continue to work remotely as long as possible.

A new study from RW3 CultureWizard that surveyed 2,700 professionals in 106 countries found that most wanted to continue to work remotely, even when given an option to return to the workplace.

The tech industry, which has been the major driver of new office leasing over the past two years, could see an exodus of office workers.

Both Facebook and Google have told employees they can work remotely until the end of 2020, but some tech firms expect half their office staff will be working from home over the next decade.

Amazon, which holds more than 600,000 square feet of office space in downtown Vancouver and has pre-leased 1.07 million square feet of space being built at the Post project on West Georgia Street –  the largest office leasing deal in Vancouver’s history – will allow its employees to work remotely until January of next year.

Twitter has told its office workers they can work from home “forever.”

As well, provincial and federal governments – major office tenants in cities across Canada – appear in no hurry to get people back into the office, where strict COVID-19 measures remain in effect.

In some office towers, the pandemic protocols may be simply unworkable. An example is restricting elevators to one or two persons.

“Imagine you’re in a tower with 20 floors, for example, and you’re waiting on the 15th floor to get on the elevator,” said Debi Daviau, president of the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada. “It really doesn’t matter which direction it comes from you’re never going to get on that elevator.”

Social-distancing and other measures could convince some returning workers to hurry back to their kitchen table. Employee interaction, the lunch room, and packed and lively conference rooms where projects are debated and discussed – the main reasons people want back in the office – could all be lost under mandated measures to contain COVID-19.

The bottom line, however, is that office productivity has not suffered over the past six months.  

A recent U.S. study by Prodoscope, which tracks employee digital traffic, showed a 47 per cent productivity increase in 2020, despite the coronavirus lockdown and the ensuing increase in working from home.

The full effect of this unprecedented social experiment is not yet fully known, but it will change the office space industry as we know it. In the longer term, the potential reduction in space requirements could be offset by less density per workstation, but it is not yet clear whether the balance will be positive or negative, or in what proportions.

We are about to find out.

 

 

© Copyright 2020 Western Investor

REAL OR MAKE BELIEVE?

Douglas Todd
The Vancouver Sun

Raymond Wong, who has long followed the Metro housing market, worries that his son, now 7, will “be forced to move away from me” one day due to unaffordable housing.

Coming out of COVID-19 lockdown, realtors are trumpeting a hot market that has buyers jumping in with both feet to pay record prices. But don’t believe it, says the CHMC’S Evan Siddall. Realtors are exaggerating the strength of the market, he says, and the truth could leave young, first-time homebuyers holding the bag.

You can be forgiven for feeling perplexed about what’s happening to Metro Vancouver’s real estate market after almost six months of COVID-19 anxiety and varying degrees of lockdown.

The spin coming from the real estate industry is bewildering — with some realtors saying the market is “hot” and “fantastic.” Some agents say B.C. buyers are “jumping in with both feet,” activity is “up dramatically,” numbers are “record setting” and prices are “20 per cent higher year over year.”

Alas, the hype from certain segments of the industry confirms why polls show the public generally has a low opinion of realtors. Insights West recently discovered only 47 per cent of Canadians have a positive view of real estate agents, much lower than their trust in police, teachers and even journalists.

Metro Vancouver housing prices, for instance, are definitely not up 20 per cent on average over last year, despite what you can read on the internet.

Still, the real estate industry’s recent post-lockdown puffery is not entirely wrong. Pockets of pent-up demand appear to be showing in Metro Vancouver’s market, particularly in detached homes in the suburbs.

But many analysts believe realtors are in general exaggerating the strength of the market, torquing trends to make people believe this is the time they must buy. There are still reasons that the classic 1954 book, How to Lie With Statistics, remains a bestseller.

It is wise to focus on the details of this pandemic housing market, since it’s segmenting.

For instance, the city’s high end property developers should be nervous these days, since the condo presale market, which has normally attracted a flood of domestic and offshore investors, is in danger of collapsing. And many people who had been holding condo apartments as investments, which traditionally has been almost half of all units, are trying to unload their units.

The head of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Evan Siddall, is among those telling Canadians to be wary of marketing propaganda. He went on Twitter on Wednesday to debunk a boosterish magazine article quoting industry players talking about an allegedly sizzling housing market. Siddall warned: “It’s better to heed the advice of objective voices, not ‘experts’ who earn fees on house prices.”

In May, Siddall echoed the warnings as several banks predicted a nine to 19 per cent reduction in Canada’s housing prices over the next year or more, with Greater Toronto and Vancouver suffering the worst. Prices would drop, Siddall forecast, because of Covid-19-incited unemployment, a dramatic jump in the number of people not being able to pay their mortgages and growing household debt.

 

A STRANGE BEAST INDEED

But this year’s Covid-induced developments need to be understood in the context of how Metro Vancouver’s housing market has over the decades become a strange beast.

It’s been globalized since the 1980s, which is why in January Demographia International Housing Inventory dubbed it the second-most unaffordable market out of more than 340 cities around the world, with Hong Kong first and Sydney third. The ratio of Metro Vancouver housing prices to average local wages was a devastating 12 to one. A four to one ratio is considered “affordable.”

In the midst of such bad news, COVID-19 has thrown a wrench into the real estate machines operating in Metro Vancouver, Canada and parts of the developed world.

Pandemic restrictions not only took the wind out of the market for about four months, they forced realtors to resort to changing what they do and, for instance, offer virtual “open houses.” More importantly, Angus Reid pollsters say COVID-19 has walloped the earnings of more than two out of five Canadian households. The pandemic has also largely closed Canadian borders to transnational migrants, some of whom used to come with capital that helped fuel big-city housing prices. Foreign visitors to Canada are now down to next to nothing. And the numbers of new immigrants (350,000 last year) and international students (645,000 last year) have been cut roughly in half.

Canadian real estate buying and selling patterns have been radically disrupted, but Siddall has felt forced to defend why his medium-term prediction of sharply falling prices is not necessarily panning out in the short term, particularly in June and July. He has felt it necessary to remind everyone that one in five Canadian households could default on their mortgage payments if the economy doesn’t rebound.

Siddall is also among the many analysts criticizing the federal Liberals for doing too much to stimulate the housing industry — arguably the country’s biggest economic sector — by offering extremely low mortgage rates and by standing by as the Bank of Canada rapidly prints money to encourage spending.

Siddall worries the federal Liberals’ hyper-promotion of home ownership is creating an unsustainable debt bubble, which, when it bursts, will eventually push prices much lower.

“The problem is that we’re in a game of musical chairs and when the music stops playing, it’ll be young first-time homebuyers who are holding the bag.”

Amid this, there are signs pentup demand has recently come into the housing market, with the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reporting a 28 per cent increase in sales in July compared with a year earlier. It looks as if some who had been preparing to buy in the spring have delayed their decisions to this summer.

And what’s especially different — blame COVID-19 — is that analysts say there is a small but significant uptick in people, presumably those who have not lost their jobs, moving out of the urban core. Some are buying detached houses in the suburbs with the idea that they need larger homes if they’re going to have to work out of them. Many employers might be getting used to their staff telecommuting.

At the same time, condos in the city core are not selling particularly well. Even though there are now more than 1,200 condominium towers in Vancouver, Burnaby and North Vancouver — and roughly one-third of the region’s population lives in a strata unit — there is a distinct possibility that particular construction craze might have topped out.

 

 

WILL THERE BE A SHIFT TO THE SUBURBS?

Raymond Wong, who has lived in Greater Vancouver all his life, has made it his avocation to become informed about the housing market, especially since 2015 when he attended an open house and asked the realtor how locals could possibly afford to get into it.

“She responded: ‘This is not a local market. This is a foreign market,’” says Wong, an engineer.

“I have a seven-year-old son and I do worry about one day how, or if, he could survive in Vancouver. I worry that one day my son would be forced to move away from me, and not by choice.”

In addition to Wong’s longtime concern that “overseas money has been coming into the market,” he believes his son in the future will be up against stubbornly stagnant Metro Vancouver wages and “will have to worry about hyperinflation, since Ottawa is printing money and providing low interest rates.”

The young are especially hurting in regards to wages since COVID-19 hit in March. A quarter of Canadians between 25 and 30 years old have lost their jobs or been put on unpaid leave because of the pandemic, according to a survey by Deloitte Canada. Only about a third of Canadians between age 25 and 40 said their employment and income were unaffected by the COVID-19 shutdown.

With the coronavirus wreaking economic havoc unevenly, Wong said professionals generally appear to be doing much better than young people, blue-collar and retail workers.

“Many professionals living in downtown Vancouver realize they don’t need to live close to work anymore. They are working from home on their computers and want a larger space. This is probably one of the reasons we are seeing a downturn in downtown condos,” Wong said.

“I feel this is the new norm, and that’s why there’s been an uptick in single-family homes, particularly the starter ones. It seems single-family homes are selling as far out as Chilliwack. And this is not happening just in Greater Vancouver, but across Canada as well.”

Veteran Toronto housing analyst John Pasalis concurs. He’s found data showing that the semi-rural suburbs of Toronto are experiencing much stronger sales than the core of Canada’s largest city, which, like Vancouver, has also been attractive to global investors seeking a place to park their wealth.

“I think what we are seeing in Toronto and Vancouver is a POST-COVID behavioural shift away from condos and towards low-rise (suburban) homes. It’s not a mass exodus, but it’s an important trend to keep an eye on because I think it will be with us for a while,” Pasalis says.

Vancouver housing analyst Steve Saretsky tends to agree. “Housing sales are on the rise, and so too are prices, at least for single-family homes on the outskirts of the city.”

This week the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, which includes Surrey, Langley and Mission, says its “benchmark” price of a single-family detached home rose to $1 million.

It says that’s a hike of 5.3 per cent compared to July 2019, which is about the same rate of increase in the rest of Metro Vancouver.

Even though the real estate associations say this summer’s sales volumes and prices have begun surpassing levels in 2019, analysts point out that 2019 was a down year.

For the first time in decades, money earned offshore is apparently not a major factor perking up the Metro Vancouver market.

“It’s cheap credit, not foreign buyers, driving the rebound in housing activity across the province of B.C.,” Saretsky told followers in a Thursday tweet.

“Armed with record low mortgage rates and a sea of liquidity, Canadians are doing what they do best — borrowing money to buy real estate,” Saretsky said in a recent report.

He expressed grave concerns the Bank of Canada is “running in overdrive” to print new money and support mortgage bonds.

Such policy moves will help Canadians who already own real estate assets, Saretsky said, but they will further harm the “havenots.”

The apparent turn to detached homes in Greater Vancouver is not pushing overall prices higher compared to the boom years.

Stephen Punwasi, a prominent Canadian market analyst and director of Better Dwelling, recently said, “Greater Vancouver real estate sales are returning to pre-pandemic levels, but prices are still falling” compared to their overall peak a couple of years earlier.

Most analysts owe the drop in 2019 at least in part to the cumulative effects of the B.C. government’s 20 per cent foreign-buyers tax, as well as its speculation and vacancy tax, which targets “satellite” households in which breadwinners earn most of their wealth offshore but pay minimal Canadian income taxes.

Despite the slight June-july upturn in sales of detached homes in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, the volume of sales is still almost half what it was in 2016. And the average price for a detached home in July in the north of the Fraser parts of Metro was about $1.6 million. That is exceptionally high compared to most cities around the world, but it’s below the peak of $1.83 million three and four years ago.

The luxury single-family market is not what it was either. In many neighbourhoods of West Vancouver, for instance, where typical home prices of $4 million to $7 million were until recently driven largely by buyers with offshore capital, assessed values have fallen on average by onethird in the past two years.

Across Metro Vancouver, data shows June and July sales are somewhat higher than last year’s levels.

“But despite the increase,” Punwasi said, “new listings are hitting the market at such a rapid pace, prices are actually falling further from the peak. It’s not incredibly straightforward, but not complicated either.”

And the longer view is not pretty, Punwasi suggests. Canadian banks are now responding to COVID-19 by allowing 16 per cent of their mortgage holders to defer their monthly payments, a rate double that in the U.S.

It might just be a matter of time before many struggling with mortgage debt are forced to sell.

 

 

CONDO MANIA MAY HAVE PEAKED IN METRO

Buyers are not as keen as they once were on the city’s oftenshiny condo apartment towers, which have become the most obvious symbol of Metro Vancouver’s boom.

Their presence once led author Douglas Coupland to write a book about the city titled City of Glass.

“I think there is less demand for condo towers now, since many people who buy in condo towers are investors,” said Wong.

“So, with Airbnbs not doing well here, and people losing jobs and rents coming down, many people who own condo units want to sell.”

An exceptional number of condos, 2,964, flooded into the market in July.

“Greater Vancouver has seen its biggest single-month surge of inventory in half a decade,” Punwasi said in a recent analysis. “Everybody had the same idea — sell, in June. … New listings are hitting the market at such a rapid pace it’s killing price gains.”

In July, the Real Estate Board of Metro Vancouver reported that condo apartment prices in July were averaging $680,000. That’s down from a peak of $740,000 two years earlier.

Given the muted condo scene in Metro Vancouver, Punwasi also noted that “presales” of yet-to-be-built units had been down 50 per cent in June from the same month last year. Many developers, he says, are holding off on starting construction projects.

It’s hard to keep track of the many diverging shifts impacting the Canadian housing market. There are so many changes in the age of COVID-19 that even analysts such as Saretsky have been known to say the reality sometimes seems “impenetrable.”

Despite the way the detached family home market is functioning differently from the condo apartment market, Wong is among those who is not optimistic about what he considers the bottom line: Whether Metro Vancouver will become affordable in the future, including for his son.

“Our government is not doing us any favours,” said Wong, who has felt compelled to join Housing Action for Local Buyers, an ethnically diverse group of British Columbians who advocate more affordable housing for ordinary people.

With the federal government “printing billions of dollars” and banks offering extremely low-interest credit, Wong believes “at the end of the day the money will work its way to the ultra-wealthy and they will park their money in real estate.”

That will not help most young families.

COVID-19 has hugely complicated the urban housing scene. Regardless of its chaotic impact, it seems clear a range of regulatory action will still be needed to help make Metro Vancouver housing affordable for many of those who live and work here.

It’s better to heed the advice of objective voices, not ‘experts’ who earn fees on house prices.

 

 

© 2020 Vancouver Sun

Red-hot Toronto real estate sales continue in July – TREB

Duffie Osental
Mortgage Broker News

Toronto’s real estate market is heating up, with July setting a new year-on-year sales record.

Figures released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) revealed that the Greater Toronto Area saw 11,081 sales in July 2020 – a 29.5% increase over the same period in 2019 and a new record for the month of July. Additionally, sales were up by 49.5% compared to June 2020 on a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis.

Read more: TRREB’s March sales figures show “clear break” between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods

The numbers also showed that total new listings were up on a year-on-year basis by 24.7% – but this annual growth rate was less than that of sales, which means market conditions tightened on average compared to July 2019. Additionally, active listings at the end of July were down by 16.3%.

“Sales activity was extremely strong for the first full month of summer,” said Lisa Patel, president of TRREB. “Normally we would see sales dip in July relative to June as more households take vacation, especially with children out of school. This year, however, was different with pent-up demand from the COVID-19-related lull in April and May being satisfied in the summer, as economic recovery takes firmer hold, including the Stage 3 re-opening. In addition, fewer people are travelling, which has likely translated into more transactions and listings.”

According to TRREB, the overall average selling price was up by 16.9% year-over-year to $943,710. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price was up by 5.5% compared to June 2020. Price growth was strongest for low-rise home types, notably within the City of Toronto. Despite more balanced market conditions in the condominium apartment market segment, year-over-year price growth remained in the high single-digits.

“Competition between buyers continued to increase in many segments of the GTA ownership housing market in July, which fueled a further acceleration in year-over-year price growth in July compared to June,” Jason Mercer, chief market analyst at TRREB.

 

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Toronto Home Sales Hit New Record for July: TRREB

Jannine Rane
other

The easing of COVID-19 restrictions across the province coupled with pent-up housing demand led to record-breaking sales within the Toronto Region for the month of July. 

The latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) showed that home sales across the Toronto Region were up on an annual basis in the strong double digits – increasing 29% year-over-year (y-o-y) to 11,081. In the City of Toronto alone, sales were up 15% y-o-y and 26% month-over-month (m-o-m) to 3,577. The average home price across all housing types also noted significant increases, rising 17% y-o-y in the Toronto Region to $943,710 and 21% in the City of Toronto to $1,017,320. 

“Normally we would see sales dip in July relative to June as more households take vacation, especially with children out of school. This year, however, was different with pent-up demand from the COVID-19-related lull in April and May being satisfied in the summer, as economic recovery takes firmer hold, including the Stage 3 re-opening. In addition, fewer people are travelling, which has likely translated into more transactions and listings,” said TRREB President, Lisa Patel.

Detached House Sales Outside City of Toronto Up 48% Annually; Sellers Market Conditions Persist in Halton, Durham, Peel 

Patel also highlighted that “sales growth was driven by low-rise home types, particularly in the regions surrounding the City of Toronto.” 

Prospective home buyers with the ability to work remotely are increasingly seeking larger properties that need not be close to the city core, which spurred the remarkable growth in sales activity in Toronto’s surrounding regions this July. 

The Durham Region for instance, saw a steep 52% annual increase in home sales this July. In terms of housing competition, buyers in Durham faced stiff competition for available inventory, with just 1,905 new listings hitting the market in July, a 1% increase y-o-y. As such, the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) for Durham was 83% this July, which meant fewer homes were available relative to the existing demand in the market. A seller’s market exists when the SNLR is greater than 60%. Last July, the SNLR for Durham Region was 55%, indicating a balanced market. A housing market is considered balanced when there is sufficient supply of homes to meet demand during a given period of time, which is typically when the SNLR is between 40% and 60%. In particular, detached house sales in Durham grew 52% annually, but new listings dropped by 9%.

Halton Region buyers also faced strong competition in July. Home sales grew 38% y-o-y with 1,198 homes being sold compared to 1,619 new listings being added to the market. There was a 43% increase in detached sales, but only a 24% increase in new listings y-o-y. The Halton Region as a whole also exhibited deeper seller’s market conditions with an SNLR of 74% compared to 68% last year.  

In Peel Region, home sales increased 29% to 2,339 in July, while new listings grew 23% to 3,553. The market exhibited seller’s market conditions, with an SNLR of 66% – a similar level to last year’s 62%. Brampton and Caledon drove these sales increases, with annual changes of 36% and 69%. Detached house sales in the region saw a significant leap of 51% to 1,217 sales; Caledon led the pack with an 81% increase in detached home sales compared to a 49% increase in Brampton and 46% growth in Mississauga.

In York Region, there were 1,850 home sales, a 28% increase y-o-y, and new listings were up 14% with 3,306 new properties being added to the market in July. As such, housing competition was fairly balanced, with the region exhibiting an SNLR of 56%, almost identical to last year. By property type, detached house sales increased 37% annually; the top three York municipalities for increases in detached home sales were King (+154%), Georgina (+74%), and Aurora (+72%).

Detached and semi-detached home sales in the City of Toronto rose at the slowest relative pace, but still in the double digits. Detached home sales increased 27% and semi-detached sales 35% respectively on an annual basis this July, with 1,102 detached homes and 372 semi-detached homes changing hands. Competition for housing was balanced for the City of Toronto as a whole, with the SNLR at 52% compared to a seller’s market last year with an SNLR of 65%.

Freehold Average Home Prices Increases Were Double Price Growth in the Condo Sector

Across the Toronto Region as a whole, the average home price for detached and semi-detached properties each increased 16% to $1,154,356 and $915,451 respectively. The condo sector saw the average price rise at a much more modest pace – growing 8% to $647,470 for condo townhouses and 9% for condo apartments to $635,778. 

Similarly, in the City of Toronto, the average home price for detached and semi-detached properties rose 26% and 20% respectively to $1,541,003 and $1,181,014. Condominium properties exhibited more restrained growth, with the average price for condo townhouses rising 7% annually to $724,655 and 9% y-o-y for condo apartments to $682,999. 

Check out the infographics below to see how sales and average prices changed by home type for TRREB and the City of Toronto in July.

 

 

© 2015 – 2020 Zoocasa Realty Inc., Brokerage

COVID-19 pandemic hasn?t dimmed enthusiasm for buying a home, says report

REM
The Vancouver Sun

A new report by Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC) says most current homeowners are comfortable with their current mortgage debt and remain pleased with their decision to purchase a home.

 

“What we have seen clearly is that the vast majority of homeowners are not feeling a long-term financial impact related to COVID-19, and that potential home buyers are still very much in the market for a home, signs of which are being seen in regions across the country,” says Paul Taylor, president and CEO of MPC. “To this point, the greatest economic effects of COVID-19 have been experienced by young age groups and people in lower wage occupations. In consequence, the housing market impacts will likely be greater in the rental sector than for homeownership.”

 

Will Dunning, MPC’s chief economist and author of the report says, “We were surprised by responses that show higher expectations about buying homes in the near future: Among non-homeowners, the expectation of buying in the next year has doubled, from seven per cent at the end of last year to the current 14 per cent. There has also been a rise in expectations about buying for people who already own their home.

“These heightened expectations could reflect the sharp reductions in mortgage interest rates, as well as desires to move to situations where social distancing is easier.” But Dunning warns that “an increased desire to buy homes won’t necessarily result in more actual purchases,” because “not everyone who expects to buy has realistic prospects of actually buying. Also, some people, when they research their options, may decide not to buy. Or, they might discover that because of the mortgage stress tests, they would be unable to obtain the financing they would require.”

Dunning’s report also found that:

• Mortgage holders are showing reduced levels of regret about their mortgages.
• Homeowners have not become more worried about their ability to weather a downturn in the housing market. However, they show a small reduction in confidence about the impact of higher interest rates.
• There is still a high degree of confidence that real estate is a good long-term investment.
• There has been a small reduction in the opinion that mortgages are “good debt.”
• Not surprisingly, there has been a downshift in confidence about the economic outlook. However, it might be surprising that the degree of confidence is almost exactly at the neutral level.
• There is now more confidence that this is a good time to buy a home or condominium.
• There has been a big downshift in expectations about growth of house prices, but the average score given is still above the neutral level, meaning that there are expectations that prices will continue to rise, just not as rapidly as in the past.
• Canadians continue to see homeownership as primarily a place to live, and secondarily as an investment. In the COVID-19 period, the opinion has not budged: Homeownership is 75 per cent about the housing and 25 per cent about the “investment” aspect.
• Very few Canadians regret becoming homeowners and that opinion has not changed.

“Our intention is to conduct the same survey three more times, in six-week increments, to track any changes in sentiment,” Taylor says. “It will be interesting to see how consumer attitudes may change with the competing pressures of the evolving pandemic emergency, economies reopening and mortgage deferral programs expiring.”

Dunning says, “One of the reasons we look at economic trends is that, most of the time, the recent past gives us reasonably reliable clues about what might happen in the near future. That is not the case in these extremely abnormal times as the COVID-19 emergency has resulted in extremely volatile shifts in the Canadian housing market.”

The report says that homeowners and buyers continue to exercise caution in their purchasing decisions and have made appropriate adjustments to home buying plans. Heightened economic anxiety has tempered expectations about the pace of growth in the value of a home. Despite this, there is more confidence that now is the right time to buy a home or condominium.

“A large majority of mortgage holders (72 per cent) do not foresee any difficulty in making ongoing mortgage payments,” says Taylor. “There is a quite small minority (five per cent) of mortgage holders who expect that they will have a lot of difficulty with future mortgage payments. Yet, hundreds of thousands of Canadians have joined the mortgage deferral program, because they are uncertain about their future situations, and they want to have as much flexibility as possible.

 

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