Archive for May, 2009

Vancouver lLeads country with nine consecutive monthly house-price declines

Thursday, May 28th, 2009

Province

The Vancouver area appears determined to do its bit for the Canadian housing slump as the region leads the country in year-over-year price declines, a national price index released yesterday said.

The Vancouver metropolitan area saw average house prices fall 9.6 per cent in March from a year earlier, the largest drop of six Canadian cities, according to the Teranet-National Bank composite house-price index.

On a monthly basis, Vancouver‘s prices were down 1.7 per cent in March, second to Toronto‘s 1.9-per-cent drop.

Vancouver prices have posted nine consecutive monthly declines and in March were down 11.7 per cent from their peak in June 2008.

Nationally, housing prices continued their slide in March, falling 5.8 per cent from a year ago, according to a national housing-price index released yesterday.

March’s national decline followed a 4.1-per-cent drop in February, and was the seventh month in a row that the Teranet-National Bank composite house-price index showed a month-over-month decrease in housing prices — the longest run of monthly declines in the index’s nine-year coverage.

The composite is now down 8.5 per cent from its peak last August.

The index measures housing-price fluctuations in six Canadian cities. Of those six, prices actually rose over the previous year by one per cent in Ottawa and 2.9 per cent in Montreal, though the rate of increases has slowed considerably.

Marc Pinsonneault, senior economist at National Bank Financial, pointed out that even with those gains, all six cities are showing month-to-month declines.

“The question is: Will home-price deflation worsen in Canada to the extent it did in the U. S.?” asked Pinsonneault.”We do not believe so.

“Existing home sales were up in Canada in April for a third-consecutive month, while new listings continued their slide. As a result, the Canadian home-resale market now appears balanced. Home-price deflation should soon abate.”

Not everyone sees a quick end to the slide.

“With the weakening economy and weak labour-market conditions expected to weaken demand, the correction in the Canadian housing market is expected to continue for some time,” said Millan Mulraine, economic strategist at TD Securities.

© Copyright (c) The Province

Existing home sales rise as low prices lure buyers

Wednesday, May 27th, 2009

USA Today

A buyer visits a condominium for sale in Massachusetts last month. By Brian Snyder, Reuters

WASHINGTON (AP) — Previously occupied homes rose modestly from March to April as buyers swooped in to take advantage of prices that were 15.4% below year-ago levels.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that home sales rose 2.9% to an annual rate of 4.68 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.55 million in March.

The results slightly beat economists’ forecasts. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 4.66 million units, according to Thomson Reuters.

The median sales price was $172,000, down from $201,300 in the same month last year. That was the second-largest drop on record after January, when prices fell 17.5%.

The number of unsold homes on the market at the end of April rose almost 9% from a month earlier to nearly 4 million. That’s a 10-month supply at the current sales pace.

“We still need a continuing and consistent rise in home sales to get the inventory down,” said Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist. Only then, economists say, will prices stabilize and eventually recover.

Another big problem, Yun noted, is the lack of activity at the higher-end of the housing market, among properties priced at $750,000 or higher.

Interest rates are much higher for loans above $730,000 that cannot be purchased by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. And that’s sapping demand for expensive properties.

“It’s just stalled. completely stalled,” Yun said. The Realtors group is pushing for the Federal Reserve to start buying up those loans, even if they are not backed by Fannie and Freddie. It also wants the higher loan limits to apply to the whole country, not just expensive areas like California and New York.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

B.C. housing prices stabilizing

Wednesday, May 27th, 2009

Conditions are improving more rapidly than expected with three consecutive months of double-digit increases in sales

Brian Morton
Sun

Housing market conditions are improving more rapidly than expected, with the average price for a home in B.C. now predicted to decline five percentage points less in 2009 than forecasted at the beginning of the year, the B.C. Real Estate Association said Tuesday.

“The imbalance between supply and demand was putting significant downward pressure on home prices,” BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir said. “[But] on the demand side, we’ve now seen three consecutive months of double-digit increases in home sales. On the supply side, the number of homes for sale in Vancouver has declined for six consecutive months. The imbalance has waned considerably.”

Muir said he believes most of the decline in prices has already occurred and that there’s little downward pressure on prices in Victoria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. “There will be much better price stability, especially for the balance of the year.”

As part of its spring 2009 housing forecast, the BCREA reported that housing market conditions have improved more rapidly than expected. As a result, BCREA has revised its price forecast upwards, reflecting greater stability through the balance of the year.

The average residential price is now forecast to decline eight per cent to $420,600, instead of the 13-per-cent increase originally forecast.

That compares with a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. report released last week that forecast average prices in B.C. to drop 11 per cent in 2009 and increase marginally in 2010.

The CMHC report predicted Metro Vancouver prices would sink 13 per cent in 2009 and a further 2.3 per cent in 2010.

The BCREA report said residential sales will decline 12 per cent to 60,755 units this year, as a result of a weak first quarter. However, stronger consumer demand is expected to continue for the balance of the year and through 2010. Residential sales in 2010 are forecast to climb 10 per cent to 66,740 units.

Reasons for the change include affordability, with lower home prices and record-low interest rates reducing the carrying cost of the average-priced home by 24 per cent over the last year.

“First-time buyers are a stronger force in the marketplace than in the fall and winter months,” added Muir.

Asked how long it might be before home prices return to their peak in February 2008, Muir replied there’s no way of knowing.

Regionally, the report forecast that price drops will be deepest in the Okanagan, with 15-per-cent declines in Okanagan Mainline and South Okanagan in 2009 and two-per-cent declines in 2010.

It’s estimated that the Northern Lights area will experience the least drop in prices, with four-per-cent declines this year and three-per-cent declines in 2010. Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are both forecast to see price drops of nine per cent in 2009 and one per cent in 2010.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Free HDTV: All you need is an antenna

Wednesday, May 27th, 2009

Consumers misled into believing paying only way to get the service, advocate says

Rebecca Tebrake
Sun

Jon LeBlanc on the roof of his Delta home with one of the antennas he uses to receive HDTV signals.Photograph by: Ian Lindsay, Vancouver Sun

Forget about buying the newest cable box or satellite dish to get picture-perfect, high-definition television. The perfect companion to an HD television set is a good old-fashioned antenna, according to one advocate.

With networks across Canada and the U.S. legally required to go digital within the next two years, viewers can get top-quality HDTV signals through an antenna absolutely free, said Jon LeBlanc, who has been advocating this option for five years on an online forum at www.digitalhome.com.

Antennas can channel digital signals directly to the TV set, free from the interference that characterized analog days. Plus, the picture beats compressed cable and satellite signals, LeBlanc said.

“It’s beautiful programming,” he said. “The reception is perfect because with digital, it’s either perfect or it’s nothing.”

The United States networks are scheduled to convert from analog transmissions to all-digital on June 12; Canada is set to switch completely in 2011.

All that couch-surfers need to take advantage of free HDTV are an antenna and a television equipped with a digital over-the-air tuner, a feature built into most newer television sets. Viewers in highrises may need only a $70 set-top antenna.

Viewers closer to ground level may have to invest in a roof-top antenna, which can cost up to $500, according to LeBlanc.

“The consumer has basically been misled for a couple of decades now into believing that the only way to get quality television is by paying for it,” he said.

At least one rival is confident that British Columbians will continue choosing cable. Telus reached 100,000 television subscribers this year, said Telus spokesperson Shawn Hall, who welcomes the competition from antennas.

“People are always looking for ways to be economical, but [antenna use] is not something we’ve really seen as a major trend,” Hall said Tuesday.

LeBlanc said he regularly provides online advice to laid-off workers in southern Ontario, where viewers can get up to 30 channels.

Consumer interest is slow but growing in the Lower Mainland, where channels are scarcer. Viewers in Vancouver can get Global HD at channel 22.1, CTV at 33.1, CBC at 58.1, and, if they are lucky, a handful of networks coming in from Seattle.

Greg Gilmour, owner of Aldergrove’s Satellite Central Communications, started selling antennas in the 1950s. Sales bottomed out when cable and satellite companies promised hundreds of clear, on-demand channels. Recently, though, Gilmour has been selling 16 to 20 antennas a month throughout the Lower Mainland.

It’s not grandpa and grandma who are opting for this old-fashioned technology. Gilmour’s customers are mostly young and tech-savvy. The most-requested channel is PBS.

The service is not for everyone, LeBlanc warned. The number of channels is limited, especially in rural areas, so viewers stuck on CNN or TreehouseTV might pass. Still, he said, it’s good to have a choice.

“Consumers don’t like to be told what they have to buy. There’s a real undercurrent of freedom here, not freedom in dollars, but freedom of choice.”

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Women responsible for 60% of first-time home sales in B.C.

Wednesday, May 27th, 2009

Province

Taking advantage of falling prices, women are the majority of first-time buyers in B.C., targeting condominiums, townhomes and some ‘fixer-uppers.’ — NATIONAL POST

Women in British Columbia are leading a trend that sees new homebuyers taking advantage of falling home prices and low interest rates, Royal LePage Real Estate Services says.

Women account for 60 per cent of first-time homebuyers in B.C., Royal LePage said in a report released yesterday.

“First-time buyers in Vancouver are favouring condominiums and townhomes,” the report said.

“However, an increasing number of entry-level buyers is finding affordable detached homes outside the city in the Fraser Valley suburbs.”

Across B.C., 40 per cent of prospective new buyers plan to acquire a “fixer-upper,” the real-estate company said.

Nationally, Royal LePage found that first-timers are back in the housing game after having vacated the market late last year.

According to Royal LePage’s survey of Canadians likely to buy a home within the next three years, lower prices are the most popular reason for considering a purchase, cited as the most important factor by 33 per cent of respondents.

Royal LePage said new buyers waited out the recent downturn until they thought prices and interest rates had bottomed out.

Royal LePage vice-president Dianne Usher said first-time buyers have scooped up excess inventory in recent months, helping prices rebound from lows last year.

First-time buyers occupy anywhere between 30 and 35 per cent of the overall market, Usher said.

Their impact is most pronounced in Canada‘s bigger cities, such as Vancouver and Toronto, she said.

Younger people are most drawn to large urban areas, and such areas contain a healthy supply of the condominiums popular among first-time homebuyers, Usher said.

A separate report released in B.C. yesterday will be closely watched by potential first-timers wondering when to jump into the market. The B.C. Real Estate Association has revised its home-price forecast upwards, reflecting an expectation of greater price stability for the rest of the year.

The average B.C. house price should fall eight per cent to $420,600 in 2009, instead of the 13 per cent originally forecast, it said.

© Copyright (c) The Province

Twitter has millions tweeting in public communication service

Tuesday, May 26th, 2009

Jon Swartz
USA Today

Twitter’s founders, from left, Jack Dorsey, Biz Stone and Evan Williams. By Jessica B. Lifland for USA TODAY

 

SAN FRANCISCO It’s tea time at Twitter. While that may evoke images of courtly discussion over Earl Grey and finger sandwiches, it’s quite another thing at Silicon Valley‘s new “it” company.

The idea is that any employee can step in front of the 43-person start-up and offer a no-holds-barred weekly critique on a Friday afternoon. Co-founders Evan Williams, Jack Dorsey and Biz Stone often watch from the back, taking mental notes. Some employees recite poems; others make wacky slide presentations. The point is to express what the company means to them.

In another tradition, Alison Sudol, a musician with more than 500,000 followers on Twitter, this month spoke at headquarters, part of a monthly ritual in which artists and academics drop by to impart wisdom and entertain.

Both events underscore the bottom-up culture fostered by Twitter’s unassuming co-founders, who have become reluctant media stars. “Tech founders get a little too much emphasis,” CEO Evan Williams says. “So many people here contribute to our success.”

Today, it seems everyone wants a piece of Twitter. There have been rumors of takeover overtures from Google, Facebook and Apple. Twitter, like Google, has become a verb (though the proper term is “tweet”). Twitter’s co-founders have had a profound impact on how millions of people communicate. Yet, despite appearances on Oprah,The View and The Colbert Report, many refer to them as simply The Twitter Guys.

“They’ve created a new way for people to communicate publicly and instantaneously,” says Fred Wilson, a venture capitalist who is on the company’s six-member board and an investor.

The trio, all in their 30s, are college dropouts with a modest track record of success. Each helped start a company before Twitter. Dorsey invented the service out of his deep fascination with taxi dispatches and city grids. Williams began reading business books for fun as a teenager. Stone wrote two books on blogging, and is Twitter’s de facto public relations department.

They’re sitting on a potential gold mine. The 3-year-old firm raised $35 million in February alone — $55 million to date — and was recently valued at about $100 million.

To be sure, behind the feel-good vibes, meteoric growth and nationwide fixation, Twitter’s founders face issues of user retention, outages and persistent questions about monetization. Such are the challenges for a highflying start-up trying to live up to its considerable hype in the worst economy in more than 70 years.

Yet, industry leaders such as Zappos.com CEO Tony Hsieh are convinced Twitter is up to the task.

“All three (Twitter founders) have the belief that Twitter can change the world and the passion to make it actually happen,” says Hsieh, a Web sales guru and fan of Twitter.

No slam-dunk

Millions of people use Twitter to trade short messages of 140 characters or less — think haiku — via the Web and cellphones. The free service is the fastest-growing major website in the U.S. It had 17 million registered users in the U.S. in April — up 3,000% from a year ago, according to market researcher ComScore.

Celebrities such as Ashton Kutcher (1.5 million followers) and athlete Shaquille O’Neal (950,000) have added to its popularity. Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff, an occasional adviser, believes the service will lead to new categories on the Web — “from real-time journalism to the next generation of customer service and call centers.”

Before it gets there, however, Twitter must navigate several hurdles. Look no further than to Twitter Quitters, the cutesy nickname for users who quit after less than a month. Twitter’s retention rate — people who return the next month — is about 40%, Nielsen Online says. Facebook and MySpace have rates of more than 60%.

There also is chronic second-guessing from users and tech analysts about Twitter’s occasional outages and what it should do next — particularly, how it will make money in a sagging economy and whether it will be sold. (For the record, Williams says there is “no interest in selling.”)

“Twitter must have the most armchair quarterbacks of any start-up in recent memory, except possibly Facebook,” says Laura Fitton, a consultant and co-author of Twitter for Dummies.

Twitter experienced second-guessing full bore when it abruptly dropped a feature used by less than 3% of its users that removes some comments. “We screwed up,” says Stone, who notes Twitter will soon have a solution. “There is so much going on here, we let it fall through the cracks.”

Adds Williams: “We did a poor job of communicating. When you evolve the service, you may upset people in the process. If you stand pat, you risk being stagnant.”

The challenges don’t end there. Twitter, like its social media peers, must produce revenue. “Eventually, companies like Twitter are going to be forced to choose between huge user numbers or a smaller, truly active network of people willing to pay a nominal fee,” says Sayles Braga, CEO of YellowPin, a social-networking service.

Twitter’s brain trust has heard it all before. “It took Google four to five years for revenue,” says Dorsey, who was just in Iraq to help the government improve communications with citizens. “We will be patient, too.”

The usually chatty Stone and circumspect Williams are vague on how Twitter will evolve from hip technology to moneymaker. But Stone allows the company has plans for tools and services by year’s end that will help businesses serve customers, and it may charge fees for such services.

“The idea of taking money to run traditional banner ads on Twitter.com has always been low on our list of interesting ways to generate revenue,” Stone mused in a blog post last week. “However, facilitating connections between businesses and individuals in meaningful and relevant ways is compelling.”

One new effort was announced Monday: an unscripted TV series based on the site that, according to the Associated Press, would “harness Twitter to put players on the trail of celebrities in an interactive, competitive format.”

The brain trust

The weight of all of the lofty expectations rests squarely on the slight shoulders of Williams, 37, who oversees daily operations. The Clarks, Neb., native succeeded Dorsey as chief executive in October. He has successfully navigated a start-up before. As co-founder of Blogger, one of the first applications for creating and managing blogs, he helped sell it to Google for an undisclosed amount in 2003.

Following Blogger’s sale, Williams was not long for Google. He eventually hooked up with a friend, Noah Glass, to start Odeo, at the time a podcasting company. It was there that the Twitter concept was born.

Ev is the total package,” says Chris Sacca, one of Twitter’s first investors and an adviser. “He reminds me so much of (Sacca’s former Google bosses and co-founders) Sergey (Brin) and Larry (Page). They understand products and how they can fit in the future.”

The son of a now-retired farmer, Williams showed a predilection for commerce as a teenager. He read business books on real estate, marketing and publishing. “I realized I could buy books and learn something that people spent years learning about,” says Williams, who dropped out of the University of Nebraska just as the Web was becoming a phenomenon, in 1994.

While Williams bears the operational brunt of running Twitter, the tireless Stone is the marketing hub. On a typical day, he fields 100 media requests.

Ev is the technology builder, and Biz is the evocative and communicative one,” says Reid Hoffman, CEO of LinkedIn, the popular business-networking service.

Their partnership was born of a close working relationship and friendship built after starting out as business competitors. In 2000, Stone co-founded Xanga.com, a website that hosts blogs and social-networking profiles. It “looked a lot like MySpace before MySpace,” he says. Its rival was Williams’ Blogger.

After Google bought Blogger, Williams asked Stone to join Google to help reboot Blogger with a new design and features. “I didn’t really know Evan then,” Stone says. “We were just familiar with each others’ work. There was a mutual admiration.”

By 2005, they left Google for Odeo. Stone’s timing could have been better — he gave up his Google stock options because he wasn’t there long enough to be vested — but Odeo was where Twitter was born.

“Twitter is so many things: a messaging service; a customer-service tool to reach customers, as proven by Zappos, Comcast and others; real-time search; and microblogging,” says Stone, 35.

The least visible co-founder, Dorsey, 32, is rarely around the office and already onto his Next Big Thing. But the St. Louis native is the mastermind behind the notepad sketch in 2000 that led to Twitter. “My whole philosophy is making tech more accessible and human,” Dorsey says.

When an image of the sketch was uploaded on the Internet in 2006, Dorsey wrote: “I had an idea to make a more ‘live’ LiveJournal. Real-time, up-to-date, from the road. Akin to updating your AIM status from wherever you are, and sharing it. …We’re calling it twttr.”

“Jack’s original vision was staggering for its potential, as well as its simplicity,” Sacca says.

These days, Dorsey is chairman of the company’s board of directors and a strategic adviser, but is devoting his energies to a top-secret start-up. He won’t say much about the new venture — only that it involves tech and communications, and that it may make its debut this summer.

In many ways, the boyish-looking Dorsey best captures the spirit and look of Twitter. He bears a forearm-length tattoo that he says represents an F-sharp, an integral symbol from mathematics, and a human clavicle — the only bone, he says, with “free range of motion.”

“I’m a very low-level programmer,” Dorsey says, chuckling. “This idea of a short, inconsequential burst of activity (Twitter) turned out pretty well.”

Home prices fall a record 19.1% in year; declines slowing

Tuesday, May 26th, 2009

USA Today

NEW YORK (AP) — Home prices fell at the sharpest rate ever in the first quarter compared to 2008, but the pace of month-to-month declines continues to slow, a closely watched housing index showed Tuesday.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price index reported home prices were down 19.1% in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history.

Home prices have fallen 32.2% since peaking in the second quarter of 2006 and are at levels not seen since the end of 2002.

The 20-city index fell 18.7% in March from the year before and the 10-city index lost 18.6%. Those declines were a bit better than February’s and marked the second straight month the indexes didn’t post record drops.

Still, there are no signs home prices have hit bottom.

“We see no evidence that a recovery in home prices has begun,” said, David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee.

All 20 cities showed annual price declines, with nine setting annual records. Fifteen cities posted double-digit drops and three cities —Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco— recorded declines of more than 30%.

Minneapolis posted a 6.1% decline from February to March, and the biggest monthly drop on record for all of the metro area.

Charlotte and Denver home prices had the best performance in March over February, both edging up less than 1%. Home prices in Dallas were flat in March.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

Many homes have air quality problems

Tuesday, May 26th, 2009

Spring is a bad time for allergy sufferers, especially when allergens have invaded their homes

Rachel Naud
Sun

Art Robinson, president of Sick Building Solutions in Toronto, is seen here with a spore trap, which collects air samples that will later be tested for allergens. Robinson’s company helps clients find allergens in hiding spots around their homes and shows them how to get rid of them. Photograph by: Tim Fraser, Canwest News Service

Spring cleaning has taken on new meaning in Suzanne Beaubien’s house.

Forget about sweeping out the attic — Beaubien is too busy literally cleaning the spring out of her house.

The B.C. native, now living in New York City, is an allergy sufferer and the pollen and mould seeping into her house from outside is turning what’s supposed to be her sanctuary into a living hell.

“I shut the windows one week ago and haven’t opened them since,” says Beaubien. “I’ve been trying to allergy-proof my home but it’s been hard. The other day there was a fine layer of pollen on my kitchen window sill. I scrubbed everything down to get the pollen out of my house and went crazy with a bucket of water and cleaner on everything plus vacuumed everything and mopped the floors.”

Beaubien has also opted for showering before bed to rinse off any pollen that may be on her skin to reduce nighttime wheezing along with the redness and puffiness of her eyes in the morning.

“I’ve been miserable,” she says. “It’s hard to enjoy your day when your nose is stuffed up and you wake up with swollen eyes. It’s hard to face people when you feel you look really terrible and feel just as bad.”

Springtime can be one of the worst seasons for allergy sufferers but it’s not just a problem for them outdoors.

According to Art Robinson, president of Sick Building Solutions, a Toronto-based company that specializes in treating sick building syndrome, approximately 80 per cent of Canadian households has some kind of indoor air quality issue.

Common household allergens such as dust mites, dander, pollen and mould have a considerable impact on allergy sufferers, causing them to experience puffy, watery and itchy eyes, a dripping nose and respiratory problems such as sneezing and wheezing.

The only real defence allergy sufferers have against indoor allergens is to find the culprits’ top hiding spots.

Here are the household hot spots for allergens and what you can do to get rid of them before they affect you.

– Rugs are one of the biggest allergen-hoarders in the home. “Rugs can harbour mould spores very easily because what happens is people walk outside on the grass and then track the mould in on their feet,” says Robinson.

In addition to mould, dust mites and dander also linger in rugs. To de-allergen a throw rug, wash it and then get it out of the house. “Shake it and hang it outside to dry and get rid of all the stuff that’s in there,” says Robinson. When you bring it back in, toss it in the dryer before you put it back on the floor. The heat from the dryer will kill any lingering allergens such as pollen. Steam cleaning rugs has the same effect. “The steam temperatures are so high it will kill any living allergens,” says Robinson.

– Bedrooms are often considered a private haven. But beware: even if you’re single, you’re more than likely not sleeping alone. Know those dust bunnies hiding under the bed? Those act as mattresses for dust mites. And those dander-eating irritants are also invading your mattress and bedding. “The first thing you should do is buy a mattress cover that won’t allow dust mites or any mite to get through it,” says Robinson. In addition, frequently washing bedding in irritant-free detergent will keep it fresh and dander-free.

– Plants give life to any household but they also house mould. Overwatering plants can lead to mould growing on the soil. Make sure not to water most houseplants more than once a week or so.

– Cardboard boxes stored in a closet can become a wonderful place for mould to grow. “People just don’t think about it because you get warm, moist air in the living space condensing on that cool wall and the cardboard is a wonderful heat source and mould starts to grow,” says Robinson.

– Although vacuuming may seem like a no-brainer when it comes to the battle of the mites, it’s important to make sure the vacuum cleaner has a filter on it “so the vacuum doesn’t just pick up dust and blow it around in the air,” says Robinson.

– Basements can house up to five different kinds of mould, and if there’s ever a leak in the house, it always ends up in the basement, giving anything moisture-friendly a place to grow. Keeping a dehumidifier in the basement is a good way to prevent mould growth. “We always recommend keeping your humidity at 35 to 45 per cent on a consistent basis,” says Robinson.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Consumer spending won’t drive U.S. or Canadian economies

Monday, May 25th, 2009

Other

The economic landscape over the next decade will see a return to inflation in the U.S., a Canadian dollar above par, a solid run for stocks and resource prices, and the emergence of Asian consumer spending, finds a new economic outlook report from CIBC World Markets Inc.

The report dubs the next decade the teenage years, and like teenagers, it expects financial markets and the economy could be moody and unpredictable early on, but ultimately, grow and mature. It notes that while equities have plenty of room for a longer term rally over the next ten years, investors will have to steer their portfolios to align with a very different mix of growth, both in North America and globally.

Excess leveraging in this decade needn’t mean that deleveraging dooms us to lower potential overall GDP growth in the teen years, only that the composition of both U.S. and global growth has to change,” says Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist and co-author of the report. “The U.S., and perhaps to a lesser extent, Canada, will become a bit more China-like in the teen years . We’ll see more of a contribution from exports and related capital spending, and less from housing or consumption.”

Mr. Shenfeld expects that greater consumer spending from regions that had been running outsized savings rates over the past decade, particularly China and the oil-exporting economies, will pick up the economic slack from lower U.S. spending. In fact, he believes that a fall in the savings rate in the developing world could add far more to global consumption spending than will be lost in the adjustment to a higher savings rate in the U.S., Canada and the rest of the OECD. The key driver in this will be a drop in the value of the overinflated U.S. greenback.

The report notes that the quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board will continue to be more aggressive than in other jurisdictions and if the Fed decides to ensure the recovery is well in hand before constraining money growth, the weight of the extra dollars will depreciate the greenback both at home, through inflation, and abroad, through currency devaluation.

Mr. Shenfeld expects the U.S. dollar to tumble by 20 per cent on a trade-weighted basis, a move that will see the Canadian dollar averaging stronger than parity in the coming decade. More importantly, he sees a weaker U.S. dollar as the key to unlocking wallets overseas.

Stronger currencies in East Asia and, if there is an unpegging as we expect, in the Persian Gulf oil economies, will be one step toward improving the real purchasing power of consumers in these regions,” he adds. “Moreover, the longer countries like China and India see improving economic conditions, the more households will be confident that their newfound wealth is not ephemeral, allowing them to reduce precautionary savings.”

While U.S. consumers will be cutting back on spending and saving more to pay down debt, Mr. Shenfeld does not expect tax hikes to be the full solution to the growing weight of government debt. He expects inflation may be part of the answer to both the public and private debt excesses of our southern neighbours.

Letting inflation run at five per cent for a few years in the early part of the decade would go a long way to digging the U.S. out of its debt mountain. The debt/GDP ratio has nominal GDP in the denominator-so raising inflation lowers the debt burden. And higher inflation would help stabilize or even boost nominal house prices, key to allowing a return to positive home equity for those with mortgages that now threaten to exceed the house price.

Since Canada< will not face nearly America’s debt burden, nor its underwater mortgages, letting inflation run above the central bank’s two percent target will be much less tempting. A strong Canadian dollar will also dampen import price inflation. Expect an inflation gap to see Treasury yields well above those on Canadian bonds in the first half of the next decade as a result.”

U.S. dollar devaluation and higher U.S. inflation will help boost commodity prices and Canada’s corporate bottom line, particularly given that economic development in the Far East tends to be more resource intensive than the more services-oriented economies of North America.

For the U.S., a weaker dollar will be key to promoting both net exports and capital spending at home, by making “Made in America” less of a cost disadvantage. The weakening of the U.S. dollar prior to its rebound last year had saw net exports account for 20 per cent of 2007 real GDP growth.

For the Canadian economy, these shifts will mean a leaner decade for segments of the economy leveraged to American consumer spending (like automotive equipment, newsprint, lumber for U.S. housing). Reduced Canadian leveraging will also see housing starts average a tame 170,000 in the decade of the teens, after having averaged near 200,000 for the current decade to date. Instead, faster growth will be driven in sectors (technology, materials) linked to either North American capital spending or Asian consumption. Financial services will earn their keep by helping Canadians manage a newly growing pool of savings.

While the Canadian dollar will climb as the U.S. dollar weakens and hurt manufacturing competitiveness, rising resource prices will reignite capital-intensive development of the oil sands, natural gas projects, and metal mines. That will allow private investment spending to increase its share of the economy as governments pull back on public infrastructure. The firmer Canadian dollar will also give Canadian households added import spending power.

“Add it up, and the teen years will, like teenagers, have a lot of drama,” adds Mr. Shenfeld. “And, as unpredictable as teens can be, likely a few surprises relative to these very long-term calls.”

Making homes ready for market

Monday, May 25th, 2009

Province

Name: Dana Smithers.

Business: Professional Real Estate Stagers (PRES), North Vancouver.

Contact: www.presstaging.com; 1-888-296-3148.

Number of employees: One, plus eight contractors.

Time in business: One year.

What is your business? I offer home-staging and redesign training for entrepreneurial women who want to start their own business in this field. I also provide resources for homeowners and realtors on my website, and have recently launched an e-book called Do-It-Yourself Homestaging.

How did you get into this business? I started out as an elementary-school teacher and then spent more than 20 years in corporate staffing. This was a total shift, but I had always done interior decorating on the side and about eight years ago, I decided I wanted to do something more fun and creative as a career. I went to school to get a diploma in interior decorating, then taught interior decorating for a few years while working on my own business. About a year ago, I saw a need in the market for a place where people could go to learn about home-staging and that led my new company. I have definitely found my passion.

What do you like about staging? It’s amazing sometimes how little it takes to turn an ordinary home into one with a real market advantage. Home staging is fairly new in Canada, but a lot of people have done it without realizing they could get paid for it. It is really rewarding. A lot of people have lived in their homes too long, and can’t see what could be done.

What’s the best part of your business? I love what I’m doing. I like teaching, and the creative part of writing the course and continually improving it. I love educating and empowering women to help them start a business, and then mentoring them as they move forward.

Future plans? My vision is to be able to provide a network of professional home stagers across Canada. I also want to write more books and do more talks.

I want to teach people how to live better in their own homes — that’s what the next book will be about. People have too much stuff and after a staging, they feel so much better. The more clutter, the more stress.

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